IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/endesu/v26y2024i3d10.1007_s10668-023-02987-7.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A combined cognitive and spatial model to map and understand climate-induced migration

Author

Listed:
  • Mario Cárdenas-Vélez

    (Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI))

  • Julia Barrott

    (Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) Oxford)

  • Juan Camilo Betancur Jaramillo

    (Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI))

  • Efraim Hernández-Orozco

    (Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI))

  • Daniela Maestre-Másmela

    (Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI))

  • Ivonne Lobos-Alva

    (Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI))

Abstract

Climate change impacts on populations have increased the number of affected people and climate migrants worldwide. Although the nexus between climate change and migration is not monolithic, analyses of individual-level factors at the local scale that reveal the specific drivers of migration are lacking. Here, we show that people are motivated by individual calculations, prioritizing economic and social factors when deciding to migrate. We use data from 53 structured interviews to decompose the assessment of the decision-making process of people deciding to migrate from a region highly vulnerable to climate change, assessing the internal and external migratory potential. The assessment of migration potential evidenced that potential migrants react and make decisions based on perceptions and preferences among economic, social, environmental, and cultural factors when migrating and value these factors differently. Our spatial multi-criteria model reports disaggregation in that people prioritize economic factors, such as unemployment, job opportunities, and lack of income, over other migration-related factors, while environmental factors are generally considered underlying. Our results demonstrate that migration is not monolithic but a mixture and amalgam of multiple interacting factors, which causes people to migrate or stay in one place despite vulnerability and climate change impacts.

Suggested Citation

  • Mario Cárdenas-Vélez & Julia Barrott & Juan Camilo Betancur Jaramillo & Efraim Hernández-Orozco & Daniela Maestre-Másmela & Ivonne Lobos-Alva, 2024. "A combined cognitive and spatial model to map and understand climate-induced migration," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 6781-6807, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:endesu:v:26:y:2024:i:3:d:10.1007_s10668-023-02987-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s10668-023-02987-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10668-023-02987-7
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10668-023-02987-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thomas Birk & Kjeld Rasmussen, 2014. "Migration from atolls as climate change adaptation: Current practices, barriers and options in Solomon Islands," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(1), pages 1-13, February.
    2. Ingrid Boas & Carol Farbotko & Helen Adams & Harald Sterly & Simon Bush & Kees Geest & Hanne Wiegel & Hasan Ashraf & Andrew Baldwin & Giovanni Bettini & Suzy Blondin & Mirjam Bruijn & David Durand-Del, 2019. "Climate migration myths," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(12), pages 901-903, December.
    3. Laurie Parsons & Jonas Østergaard Nielsen, 2021. "The Subjective Climate Migrant: Climate Perceptions, Their Determinants, and Relationship to Migration in Cambodia," Annals of the American Association of Geographers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 111(4), pages 971-988, June.
    4. Andrew Dillon & Valerie Mueller & Sheu Salau, 2011. "Migratory Responses to Agricultural Risk in Northern Nigeria," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1048-1061.
    5. Roman Hoffmann & Anna Dimitrova & Raya Muttarak & Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Jonas Peisker, 2020. "A meta-analysis of country-level studies on environmental change and migration," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(10), pages 904-912, October.
    6. Konidari, Popi & Mavrakis, Dimitrios, 2007. "A multi-criteria evaluation method for climate change mitigation policy instruments," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 6235-6257, December.
    7. Mohammadi, Majid & Rezaei, Jafar, 2020. "Bayesian best-worst method: A probabilistic group decision making model," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    8. Charlotte Till & Jamie Haverkamp & Devin White & Budhendra Bhaduri, 2018. "Understanding climate-induced migration through computational modeling: A critical overview with guidance for future efforts," The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation, , vol. 15(4), pages 415-435, October.
    9. Gray, Clark & Mueller, Valerie, 2012. "Drought and Population Mobility in Rural Ethiopia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 134-145.
    10. Hanne Wiegel & Ingrid Boas & Jeroen Warner, 2019. "A mobilities perspective on migration in the context of environmental change," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 10(6), November.
    11. Carol Farbotko & Olivia Dun & Fanny Thornton & Karen E. McNamara & Celia McMichael, 2020. "Relocation planning must address voluntary immobility," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(8), pages 702-704, August.
    12. Rezaei, Jafar, 2016. "Best-worst multi-criteria decision-making method: Some properties and a linear model," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 126-130.
    13. Rezaei, Jafar, 2015. "Best-worst multi-criteria decision-making method," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 49-57.
    14. Thomas Birk & Kjeld Rasmussen, 2014. "Migration from atolls as climate change adaptation: Current practices, barriers and options in Solomon Islands," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 0(1), pages 1-13, February.
    15. repec:sae:mrxval:v:54:y:2020:i:2:p:328-355 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Martina Angela Caretta & Valeria Fanghella & Pam Rittelmeyer & Jaishri Srinivasan & Prajjwal K. Panday & Jagadish Parajuli & Ritu Priya & E. B. Uday Bhaskar Reddy & Cydney Kate Seigerman & Aditi Mukhe, 2023. "Migration as adaptation to freshwater and inland hydroclimatic changes? A meta-review of existing evidence," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(8), pages 1-22, August.
    2. Sichko, Christopher, 2024. "Migrant selection and sorting during the Great American Drought," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    3. Corrente, Salvatore & Greco, Salvatore & Rezaei, Jafar, 2024. "Better decisions with less cognitive load: The Parsimonious BWM," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    4. Vieira, Fabiana C. & Ferreira, Fernando A.F. & Govindan, Kannan & Ferreira, Neuza C.M.Q.F. & Banaitis, Audrius, 2022. "Measuring urban digitalization using cognitive mapping and the best worst method (BWM)," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    5. Yang, Hua & Xu, Yong & Zhou, Kan & Li, Jiuyi, 2024. "Mapping development potential and priority zones for utility-scale photovoltaic on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 237(PA).
    6. Michael Brottrager & Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Dominic Kniveton & Saleem H. Ali, 2023. "Natural resources modulate the nexus between environmental shocks and human mobility," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-8, December.
    7. Lin, Xueshan & Huang, Tao & Bompard, Ettore & Wang, Beibei & Zheng, Yaxian, 2023. "Ex-ante market power evaluation and mitigation in day-ahead electricity market considering market maturity levels," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(C).
    8. Göçmen Polat, Elifcan & Yücesan, Melih & Gül, Muhammet, 2023. "A comparative framework for criticality assessment of strategic raw materials in Turkey," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    9. Vineet Kaushik & Shobha Tewari, 2023. "Modeling Opportunity Indicators Fostering Social Entrepreneurship: A Hybrid Delphi and Best-Worst Approach," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 168(1), pages 667-698, August.
    10. Jian Wang & Jin-Chun Huang & Shan-Lin Huang & Gwo-Hshiung Tzeng & Ting Zhu, 2021. "Improvement Path for Resource-Constrained Cities Identified Using an Environmental Co-Governance Assessment Framework Based on BWM-mV Model," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(9), pages 1-30, May.
    11. Mohammad Zahirul Khaiyum & Sudipa Sarker & Golam Kabir, 2023. "Evaluation of Carbon Emission Factors in the Cement Industry: An Emerging Economy Context," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-15, October.
    12. Wu, Qun & Liu, Xinwang & Zhou, Ligang & Qin, Jindong & Rezaei, Jafar, 2024. "An analytical framework for the best–worst method," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    13. Murad, C.A. & Bellinello, M.M. & Silva, A.J. & Netto, A. Caminada & de Souza, G.F.M. & Nabeta, S.I., 2022. "A novel methodology employed for ranking and consolidating performance indicators in holding companies with multiple power plants based on multi-criteria decision-making method," Operations Research Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 9(C).
    14. Luis G. BECERRA - VALBUENA & Katrin MILLOCK, 2021. "Gendered migration responses to drought in Malawi," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 87(3), pages 437-477, September.
    15. Maya Moore & Dennis Wesselbaum, 2023. "Climatic factors as drivers of migration: a review," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 2955-2975, April.
    16. Zeyu Lin & Hamdi Ayed & Belgacem Bouallegue & Hana Tomaskova & Saeid Jafarzadeh Ghoushchi & Gholamreza Haseli, 2021. "An Integrated Mathematical Attitude Utilizing Fully Fuzzy BWM and Fuzzy WASPAS for Risk Evaluation in a SOFC," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(18), pages 1-18, September.
    17. Burak Can Altay & Abdullah Erdem Boztas & Abdullah Okumuş & Muhammet Gul & Erkan Çelik, 2023. "How Will Autonomous Vehicles Decide in Case of an Accident? An Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Best–Worst Method for Weighting the Criteria from Moral Values Point of View," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-20, June.
    18. Karsten Paerregaard, 2025. "Tipping the point. How a mobility lens enables climate-related migration research to tackle interdisciplinary challenges," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 178(4), pages 1-18, April.
    19. Wu, Qun & Liu, Xinwang & Qin, Jindong & Zhou, Ligang & Mardani, Abbas & Deveci, Muhammet, 2022. "An integrated multi-criteria decision-making and multi-objective optimization model for socially responsible portfolio selection," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    20. James J. H. Liou & Perry C. Y. Liu & Huai-Wei Lo, 2020. "A Failure Mode Assessment Model Based on Neutrosophic Logic for Switched-Mode Power Supply Risk Analysis," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(12), pages 1-19, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:endesu:v:26:y:2024:i:3:d:10.1007_s10668-023-02987-7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.