IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/endesu/v25y2023i9d10.1007_s10668-022-02474-5.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Future scenarios of China’s electric vehicle ownership: A modeling study based on system dynamic approach

Author

Listed:
  • Fanyu Pu

    (Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology)

  • Songyan Jiang

    (Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology)

  • Ling Zhang

    (Nanjing Forestry University)

Abstract

Promoting electric vehicles is an important way to achieve a low-carbon transport sector for the carbon peak and neutrality target. A better understanding of future scenarios of EV ownership is fundamental for more policy-relevant results. This study develops a system dynamic model for simulating EV ownership in China by considering the interactions among factors influencing the application of electric vehicles and synthetic scenarios designed. The result shows that under the baseline scenario, China’s EV ownership would increase by 36 times, from 4.3 to 157.2 million during 2020–2035, and the new EV sales will account for 60% of total car sales, meaning that it would reach the target of promoting electric vehicles set by the Chinese government. However, according to the scenario analysis, the efficient strategies to accelerate the promotion of EVs in China are speeding up the construction of charging facilities, improving battery lifespan, and reducing daily usage fees, which are estimated to increase the EV ownership in 2035 by 59.6%, 27.3%, and 26.8%, respectively. In comparison, the effect is not so obvious for measures like duty-free and subsidy policy. The developed model can offer policymakers a reliable tool and reference to assess the outcomes of policies to promote EV application ahead of their implementation.

Suggested Citation

  • Fanyu Pu & Songyan Jiang & Ling Zhang, 2023. "Future scenarios of China’s electric vehicle ownership: A modeling study based on system dynamic approach," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(9), pages 10017-10028, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:endesu:v:25:y:2023:i:9:d:10.1007_s10668-022-02474-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s10668-022-02474-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10668-022-02474-5
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10668-022-02474-5?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Liu, Xiaoling & Sun, Xiaohua & Zheng, Hui & Huang, Dongdong, 2021. "Do policy incentives drive electric vehicle adoption? Evidence from China," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 49-62.
    2. Hao, Xu & Lin, Zhenhong & Wang, Hewu & Ou, Shiqi & Ouyang, Minggao, 2020. "Range cost-effectiveness of plug-in electric vehicle for heterogeneous consumers: An expanded total ownership cost approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    3. Yuan, Xiaodong & Cai, Yuchen, 2021. "Forecasting the development trend of low emission vehicle technologies: Based on patent data," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    4. Koot, Martijn & Wijnhoven, Fons, 2021. "Usage impact on data center electricity needs: A system dynamic forecasting model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 291(C).
    5. Wang, Ning & Tang, Linhao & Zhang, Wenjian & Guo, Jiahui, 2019. "How to face the challenges caused by the abolishment of subsidies for electric vehicles in China?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 359-372.
    6. Kester, Johannes & Noel, Lance & Zarazua de Rubens, Gerardo & Sovacool, Benjamin K., 2018. "Policy mechanisms to accelerate electric vehicle adoption: A qualitative review from the Nordic region," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 719-731.
    7. Dong, Feng & Liu, Yajie, 2020. "Policy evolution and effect evaluation of new-energy vehicle industry in China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    8. Kebai Li & Tianyi Ma & Guo Wei & Yuqian Zhang & Xueyan Feng, 2019. "Urban Industrial Water Supply and Demand: System Dynamic Model and Simulation Based on Cobb–Douglas Function," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(21), pages 1-18, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Li, Jingjing & Nian, Victor & Jiao, Jianling, 2022. "Diffusion and benefits evaluation of electric vehicles under policy interventions based on a multiagent system dynamics model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 309(C).
    2. Goel, Pooja & Kumar, Aalok & Parayitam, Satyanarayana & Luthra, Sunil, 2023. "Understanding transport users' preferences for adopting electric vehicle based mobility for sustainable city: A moderated moderated-mediation model," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    3. Gregory Trencher & Achmed Edianto, 2021. "Drivers and Barriers to the Adoption of Fuel Cell Passenger Vehicles and Buses in Germany," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-26, February.
    4. Zheng, Xuemei & Menezes, Flavio & Zheng, Xiaofeng & Wu, Chengkuan, 2022. "An empirical assessment of the impact of subsidies on EV adoption in China: A difference-in-differences approach," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 121-136.
    5. Anqi Chen & Shibing You, 2022. "The Fuel Cycle Carbon Reduction Effects of New Energy Vehicles: Empirical Evidence Based on Regional Data in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-17, November.
    6. Anqi Chen & Shibing You & Huan Liu & Jiaxuan Zhu & Xu Peng, 2023. "A Sustainable Road Transport Decarbonisation: The Scenario Analysis of New Energy Vehicle in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(4), pages 1-18, February.
    7. Kong, Deyang & Xia, Quhong & Xue, Yixi & Zhao, Xin, 2020. "Effects of multi policies on electric vehicle diffusion under subsidy policy abolishment in China: A multi-actor perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).
    8. Chen, Yufeng & Ni, Liangfu & Liu, Kelong, 2021. "Does China's new energy vehicle industry innovate efficiently? A three-stage dynamic network slacks-based measure approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    9. Huang, Youlin & Qian, Lixian, 2021. "Consumer adoption of electric vehicles in alternative business models," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    10. Lei Ding & Xuejuan Fang, 2022. "Spatial–temporal distribution of air-pollution-intensive industries and its social-economic driving mechanism in Zhejiang Province, China: a framework of spatial econometric analysis," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 1681-1712, February.
    11. Ma, Zhikai & Huo, Qian & Wang, Wei & Zhang, Tao, 2023. "Voltage-temperature aware thermal runaway alarming framework for electric vehicles via deep learning with attention mechanism in time-frequency domain," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(C).
    12. Aditya Ramji & Daniel Sperling & Lewis Fulton, 2024. "Sustainable Market Incentives -- Lessons from European Feebates for a ZEV Future," Papers 2401.15069, arXiv.org.
    13. Feng Dong & Yuling Pan, 2020. "Evolution of Renewable Energy in BRI Countries: A Combined Econometric and Decomposition Approach," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(22), pages 1-18, November.
    14. Wang, Y. & Mauree, D. & Sun, Q. & Lin, H. & Scartezzini, J.L. & Wennersten, R., 2020. "A review of approaches to low-carbon transition of high-rise residential buildings in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    15. Xiaodong Yuan & Weiling Song, 2022. "Evaluating technology innovation capabilities of companies based on entropy- TOPSIS: the case of solar cell companies," Information Technology and Management, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 65-76, June.
    16. Jingru Li & Jinxiao Ji & Jian Zuo & Yi Tan, 2023. "Is Policy the Necessary or Sufficient Driving Force of Construction and Demolition Waste Recycling Industry Development? Experience from China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(6), pages 1-16, March.
    17. Wang, Ning & Shang, Kai & Duan, Yan & Qin, Dandan, 2023. "Carbon quota allocation modeling framework in the automotive industry based on repeated game theory: A case study of ten Chinese automotive enterprises," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 279(C).
    18. Kamile Petrauskiene & Jolanta Dvarioniene & Giedrius Kaveckis & Daina Kliaugaite & Julie Chenadec & Leonie Hehn & Berta Pérez & Claudio Bordi & Giorgio Scavino & Andrea Vignoli & Michael Erman, 2020. "Situation Analysis of Policies for Electric Mobility Development: Experience from Five European Regions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-21, April.
    19. Liu, Chang & Liu, Yuan & Zhang, Dayong & Xie, Chunping, 2022. "The capital market responses to new energy vehicle (NEV) subsidies: An event study on China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    20. Di Wang & Yuman Li, 2022. "Measuring the Policy Effectiveness of China’s New-Energy Vehicle Industry and Its Differential Impact on Supply and Demand Markets," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-16, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:endesu:v:25:y:2023:i:9:d:10.1007_s10668-022-02474-5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.