IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/decisn/v52y2025i3d10.1007_s40622-025-00435-1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Scenarios of the compostable packaging market development: implications for state policies

Author

Listed:
  • Aneta Pluta-Zaremba

    (SGH Warsaw School of Economics)

  • Barbara Ocicka

    (SGH Warsaw School of Economics)

  • Jolanta Turek

    (SGH Warsaw School of Economics)

  • Jakub Brzeziński

    (University of Lodz)

  • Tammara Soma

    (Simon Fraser University)

  • Benny Tjahjono

    (Coventry University)

Abstract

In the face of a growing plastic pollution problem, global efforts are being directed toward more sustainable solutions in the packaging sector in accordance with circular economy principles. To find more sustainable alternatives, businesses are exploring innovative types of materials and packaging such as bio-based, biodegradable, and compostable plastics. Although the development of compostable packaging applications is desirable for sustainability reasons, there is uncertainty in determining the growth trajectory of this packaging sector. The aim of this paper is to investigate the possible pathways shaped by national policy leading to the compostable packaging market expansion under uncertain conditions, in order to show enterprises and policy makers the importance of involvement in the national circular system to meet the climate policy targets. This study employed a qualitative scenario technique based on the Global Business Network planning approach and focus group interviews conducted among representatives of the Polish bio-based biodegradable packaging market to gather and assess data for describing possible future pathways. This is one of the first studies to use qualitative scenario methods to analyze the possible scenarios for the market growth of compostable packaging and to define transition pathways in relation to national policy and economic conditions. The results of this study reveal that national policy has a decisive role in the development of the compostable packaging market and the closure of its life cycle in line with the circular economy principles. It drives positive and far-reaching changes when it uses a systemic approach and considers all elements necessary for circularity.

Suggested Citation

  • Aneta Pluta-Zaremba & Barbara Ocicka & Jolanta Turek & Jakub Brzeziński & Tammara Soma & Benny Tjahjono, 2025. "Scenarios of the compostable packaging market development: implications for state policies," DECISION: Official Journal of the Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, Springer;Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, vol. 52(3), pages 393-409, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:decisn:v:52:y:2025:i:3:d:10.1007_s40622-025-00435-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s40622-025-00435-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s40622-025-00435-1
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s40622-025-00435-1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Adele Folino & Aimilia Karageorgiou & Paolo S. Calabrò & Dimitrios Komilis, 2020. "Biodegradation of Wasted Bioplastics in Natural and Industrial Environments: A Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-49, July.
    2. Claudia Ghisetti & Susanna Mancinelli & Massimiliano Mazzanti & Mariangela Zoli, 2017. "Financial barriers and environmental innovations: evidence from EU manufacturing firms," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(0), pages 131-147, June.
    3. Kosow, Hannah & Gaßner, Robert, 2008. "Methods of future and scenario analysis: overview, assessment, and selection criteria," IDOS Studies, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS), volume 39, number 39.
    4. Ricard Garrido & Luisa F. Cabeza & Victor Falguera, 2021. "An Overview of Bioplastic Research on Its Relation to National Policies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-36, July.
    5. Erik Pauer & Bernhard Wohner & Victoria Heinrich & Manfred Tacker, 2019. "Assessing the Environmental Sustainability of Food Packaging: An Extended Life Cycle Assessment including Packaging-Related Food Losses and Waste and Circularity Assessment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-21, February.
    6. Zanoli, Raffaele & Gambelli, Danilo & Vairo, Daniela, 2012. "Scenarios of the organic food market in Europe," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 41-57.
    7. Gabriela Iuliana Paraschiv (Ganea) & Stefania Rodica Hubel (Anghel) & Anca Cristina Stanciu, 2021. "Optimizing the Value Chain of Recycling Biodegradable and Compostable Packaging for Sustainable Development and the Circular Economy," Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, Ovidius University of Constantza, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 0(2), pages 444-452, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tan, Xiujie & Yan, Yaxue & Dong, Yuyang, 2022. "Peer effect in green credit induced green innovation: An empirical study from China's Green Credit Guidelines," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    2. Samadhi Hemachandra & Simone Pettigrew, 2025. "Sustainability Implications of Changes in Types and Variability of Yoghurt Packaging Solutions over a Decade," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(18), pages 1-12, September.
    3. Di Zio, Simone & Bolzan, Mario & Marozzi, Marco, 2021. "Classification of Delphi outputs through robust ranking and fuzzy clustering for Delphi-based scenarios," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    4. Jose García‐Quevedo & Elisenda Jové‐Llopis & Ester Martínez‐Ros, 2020. "Barriers to the circular economy in European small and medium‐sized firms," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(6), pages 2450-2464, September.
    5. repec:osf:osfxxx:3cg8j_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Flavio R. Arroyo M. & Luis J. Miguel, 2019. "The Trends of the Energy Intensity and CO 2 Emissions Related to Final Energy Consumption in Ecuador: Scenarios of National and Worldwide Strategies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-21, December.
    7. D'Amato, Alessio & Giaccherini, Matilde & Zoli, Mariangela, 2019. "The Role of Information Sources and Providers in Shaping Green Behaviors. Evidence from Europe," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 1-1.
    8. Christian Haas & Karol Kempa, 2023. "Low-Carbon Investment and Credit Rationing," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 86(1), pages 109-145, October.
    9. Davide Antonioli & Claudia Ghisetti & Massimiliano Mazzanti & Francesco Nicolli, 2022. "Sustainable production: The economic returns of circular economy practices," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 2603-2617, July.
    10. Christopher F. Baum & Arash Kordestani & Dorothea Schäfer & Andreas Stephan, 2021. "Firms in Green Public Procurement: Financial Strength Indicators’ Impact on Contract Awards and Its Repercussion on Financial Strength," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 90(4), pages 71-92.
    11. Sarah Hafner & Olivia James & Aled Jones, 2019. "A Scoping Review of Barriers to Investment in Climate Change Solutions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-19, June.
    12. Tzen-Ying Ling & Wei-Kai Hung & Chun-Tsu Lin & Michael Lu, 2020. "Dealing with Green Gentrification and Vertical Green-Related Urban Well-Being: A Contextual-Based Design Framework," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-24, November.
    13. Chen, Kaihua & Ren, Zhipeng & Mu, Shijun & Sun, Tara Qian & Mu, Rongping, 2020. "Integrating the Delphi survey into scenario planning for China's renewable energy development strategy towards 2030," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    14. Nate Stephens & Rupert A. Hurley & Robert Kimmel & William Bridges & Ami Frierson & Duncan Darby & Jeanne Skaggs & Maggie Albro, 2023. "The Environmental Impacts of Caesar Salad Packaging," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-60, June.
    15. Natasya Nabilla Hairon Azhar & Desmond Teck-Chye Ang & Rosazlin Abdullah & Jennifer Ann Harikrishna & Acga Cheng, 2022. "Bio-Based Materials Riding the Wave of Sustainability: Common Misconceptions, Opportunities, Challenges and the Way Forward," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-15, April.
    16. Xiao Ren & Md Aslam Mia, 2025. "The determinants of green innovations in manufacturing industries: a systematic literature review," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 1-28, December.
    17. Grażyna Kędzia & Barbara Ocicka & Aneta Pluta-Zaremba & Marta Raźniewska & Jolanta Turek & Beata Wieteska-Rosiak, 2022. "Social Innovations for Improving Compostable Packaging Waste Management in CE: A Multi-Solution Perspective," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(23), pages 1-19, December.
    18. Tian Zeng & Fabien Durif, 2019. "The Influence of Consumers’ Perceived Risks towards Eco-Design Packaging upon the Purchasing Decision Process: An Exploratory Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(21), pages 1-29, November.
    19. Mohammad Arije Ulfy & Ahasanul Haque & Md. Nazmul Huda, 2025. "Integration of Artificial Intelligence in Biodegradable Plastic Packaging Design: Exploring Stakeholder Attitudes," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 9(6), pages 1728-1737, June.
    20. Julia Terrapon-Pfaff & Sibel Raquel Ersoy & Thomas Fink & Sarra Amroune & El Mostafa Jamea & Hsaine Zgou & Peter Viebahn, 2020. "Localizing the Water-Energy Nexus: The Relationship between Solar Thermal Power Plants and Future Developments in Local Water Demand," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-23, December.
    21. Almalky,, 2020. "An Integrated Multi‐Criteria Decision Support Framework for the Selection of Suppliers in Small and Medium Enterprises based on Green Innovation Ability," OSF Preprints 3cg8j, Center for Open Science.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • Q01 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Sustainable Development
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:decisn:v:52:y:2025:i:3:d:10.1007_s40622-025-00435-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.