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Throwing good money after bad

Author

Listed:
  • Luca Rigotti

    (University of Pittsburgh)

  • Matthew Ryan

    (Auckland University of Technology)

  • Rhema Vaithianathan

    (Auckland University of Technology
    Singapore Management University)

Abstract

An “investment bubble” is a period of “excessive, and predictably unprofitable, investment” (DeMarzo et al. in J Financ Econ 85:737–754, 2007). Such bubbles most often accompany the arrival of some new technology, such as the tech stock boom and bust of the late 1990s and early 2000s. We provide a rational explanation for investment bubbles based on the dynamics of learning in highly uncertain environments. Objective information about the earnings potential of a new technology gives rise to a set of priors or a belief function. A generalised form of Bayes’ rule is used to update this set of priors using earnings data from the new economy. In each period, agents—who are heterogeneous in their tolerance for ambiguity—make optimal occupational choices, with wages in the new economy set to clear the labour market. A preponderance of bad news about the new technology may nevertheless give rise to increasing firm formation around this technology, at least initially. To a frequentist outside observer, the pattern of adoption appears as an investment bubble.

Suggested Citation

  • Luca Rigotti & Matthew Ryan & Rhema Vaithianathan, 2016. "Throwing good money after bad," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 39(2), pages 175-202, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:decfin:v:39:y:2016:i:2:d:10.1007_s10203-016-0183-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s10203-016-0183-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Ambiguity; Belief function; Investment bubble; Inference;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D51 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Exchange and Production Economies
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives

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