IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/custns/v3y2016i1p11-28.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Analyzing Recurrent Customer Purchases and Unobserved Defections: a Bayesian Data Augmentation Scheme

Author

Listed:
  • Sharad Borle
  • Siddharth Singh
  • Dipak Jain
  • Ashutosh Patil

Abstract

Understanding customer purchase behavior is important for firms’ customer relationship management (CRM) efforts. In certain contexts of firm-customer relationship (e.g., retailing and catalog marketing), a firm does not observe customer defections or termination of relationship. Thus, specifying and estimating models of customer lifetime purchases is more difficult in such contexts, specifically in analyzing two key issues, viz. how often will a customer purchase from the firm (purchase frequency) and how long will the customer continue purchasing from the firm (customer lifetime). In this paper, we use a Bayesian data augmentation scheme that overcomes the estimation constraints and allows the use of all available information on customers. Using data from a direct marketing company and also an online classifieds company, we demonstrate the flexibility of this scheme by estimating existing models of lifetime purchase behavior, along with a new proposed model. We show how different types of customer heterogeneity (i.e., observed, unobserved, and time varying) can be incorporated in these models, which is made possible due to the data augmentation. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2016

Suggested Citation

  • Sharad Borle & Siddharth Singh & Dipak Jain & Ashutosh Patil, 2016. "Analyzing Recurrent Customer Purchases and Unobserved Defections: a Bayesian Data Augmentation Scheme," Customer Needs and Solutions, Springer;Institute for Sustainable Innovation and Growth (iSIG), vol. 3(1), pages 11-28, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:custns:v:3:y:2016:i:1:p:11-28
    DOI: 10.1007/s40547-015-0059-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s40547-015-0059-7
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s40547-015-0059-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lei Liu & Robert A. Wolfe & Xuelin Huang, 2004. "Shared Frailty Models for Recurrent Events and a Terminal Event," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 60(3), pages 747-756, September.
    2. David A. Schweidel & George Knox, 2013. "Incorporating Direct Marketing Activity into Latent Attrition Models," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 32(3), pages 471-487, May.
    3. Boatwright, Peter & Borle, Sharad & Kadane, Joseph B., 2003. "A Model of the Joint Distribution of Purchase Quantity and Timing," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 98, pages 564-572, January.
    4. Wang M-C. & Qin J. & Chiang C-T., 2001. "Analyzing Recurrent Event Data With Informative Censoring," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 1057-1065, September.
    5. Wedel, M, et al, 1993. "A Latent Class Poisson Regression Model for Heterogeneous Count Data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 397-411, Oct.-Dec..
    6. Siddharth Singh & Sharad Borle & Dipak Jain, 2009. "A generalized framework for estimating customer lifetime value when customer lifetimes are not observed," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 181-205, June.
    7. Peter E. Rossi & Greg M. Allenby, 2003. "Bayesian Statistics and Marketing," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 22(3), pages 304-328, July.
    8. Sinha, Debajyoti & Maiti, Tapabrata & Ibrahim, Joseph G. & Ouyang, Bichun, 2008. "Current Methods for Recurrent Events Data With Dependent Termination: A Bayesian Perspective," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 103, pages 866-878, June.
    9. Maja Miloslavsky & Sündüz Keleş & Mark J. van der Laan & Steve Butler, 2004. "Recurrent events analysis in the presence of time‐dependent covariates and dependent censoring," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 66(1), pages 239-257, February.
    10. Albert C. Bemmaor & Nicolas Glady, 2012. "Modeling Purchasing Behavior with Sudden "Death": A Flexible Customer Lifetime Model," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(5), pages 1012-1021, May.
    11. David C. Schmittlein & Donald G. Morrison & Richard Colombo, 1987. "Counting Your Customers: Who-Are They and What Will They Do Next?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(1), pages 1-24, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sharad Borle & Siddharth Shekhar Singh & Dipak C. Jain & Ashutosh Patil, 2016. "Analyzing Recurrent Customer Purchases and Unobserved Defections: a Bayesian Data Augmentation Scheme," Customer Needs and Solutions, Springer;Institute for Sustainable Innovation and Growth (iSIG), vol. 3(1), pages 11-28, March.
    2. Michael Platzer & Thomas Reutterer, 2016. "Ticking Away the Moments: Timing Regularity Helps to Better Predict Customer Activity," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 35(5), pages 779-799, September.
    3. Lydia Simon & Jost Adler, 2022. "Worth the effort? Comparison of different MCMC algorithms for estimating the Pareto/NBD model," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 92(4), pages 707-733, May.
    4. Miao Han & Liuquan Sun & Yutao Liu & Jun Zhu, 2018. "Joint analysis of recurrent event data with additive–multiplicative hazards model for the terminal event time," Metrika: International Journal for Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Springer, vol. 81(5), pages 523-547, July.
    5. Glady, Nicolas & Lemmens, Aurélie & Croux, Christophe, 2015. "Unveiling the relationship between the transaction timing, spending and dropout behavior of customers," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 78-93.
    6. Pablo Marshall, 2015. "A simple heuristic for obtaining pareto/NBD parameter estimates," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 165-173, June.
    7. repec:tiu:tiutis:52e91e47-4a2d-4e7b-bb23-3926b842ae30 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Sharad Borle & Siddharth S. Singh & Dipak C. Jain, 2008. "Customer Lifetime Value Measurement," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(1), pages 100-112, January.
    9. Park, Chang Hee & Park, Young-Hoon & Schweidel, David A., 2014. "A multi-category customer base analysis," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 266-279.
    10. David A. Schweidel & Young-Hoon Park & Zainab Jamal, 2014. "A Multiactivity Latent Attrition Model for Customer Base Analysis," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(2), pages 273-286, March.
    11. Yifei Sun & Mei-Cheng Wang, 2017. "Evaluating Utility Measurement From Recurrent Marker Processes in the Presence of Competing Terminal Events," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 112(518), pages 745-756, April.
    12. Patrick Bachmann & Markus Meierer & Jeffrey Näf, 2021. "The Role of Time-Varying Contextual Factors in Latent Attrition Models for Customer Base Analysis," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 40(4), pages 783-809, July.
    13. Arun Gopalakrishnan & Eric T. Bradlow & Peter S. Fader, 2017. "A Cross-Cohort Changepoint Model for Customer-Base Analysis," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 36(2), pages 195-213, March.
    14. Xiaoyu Che & John Angus, 2016. "A new joint model of recurrent event data with the additive hazards model for the terminal event time," Metrika: International Journal for Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Springer, vol. 79(7), pages 763-787, October.
    15. Chou, Ping & Chuang, Howard Hao-Chun & Chou, Yen-Chun & Liang, Ting-Peng, 2022. "Predictive analytics for customer repurchase: Interdisciplinary integration of buy till you die modeling and machine learning," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 296(2), pages 635-651.
    16. Xiaowei Sun & Jieli Ding & Liuquan Sun, 2020. "A semiparametric additive rates model for the weighted composite endpoint of recurrent and terminal events," Lifetime Data Analysis: An International Journal Devoted to Statistical Methods and Applications for Time-to-Event Data, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 471-492, July.
    17. Jin-Jian Hsieh & A. Adam Ding & Weijing Wang, 2011. "Regression Analysis for Recurrent Events Data under Dependent Censoring," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 67(3), pages 719-729, September.
    18. Jerath, Kinshuk & Fader, Peter S. & Hardie, Bruce G.S., 2016. "Customer-base analysis using repeated cross-sectional summary (RCSS) data," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(1), pages 340-350.
    19. Tianmeng Lyu & Björn Bornkamp & Guenther Mueller‐Velten & Heinz Schmidli, 2023. "Bayesian inference for a principal stratum estimand on recurrent events truncated by death," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 79(4), pages 3792-3802, December.
    20. Eva Ascarza & Scott A. Neslin & Oded Netzer & Zachery Anderson & Peter S. Fader & Sunil Gupta & Bruce G. S. Hardie & Aurélie Lemmens & Barak Libai & David Neal & Foster Provost & Rom Schrift, 2018. "In Pursuit of Enhanced Customer Retention Management: Review, Key Issues, and Future Directions," Customer Needs and Solutions, Springer;Institute for Sustainable Innovation and Growth (iSIG), vol. 5(1), pages 65-81, March.
    21. Gongjun Xu & Sy Han Chiou & Chiung-Yu Huang & Mei-Cheng Wang & Jun Yan, 2017. "Joint Scale-Change Models for Recurrent Events and Failure Time," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 112(518), pages 794-805, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:custns:v:3:y:2016:i:1:p:11-28. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.