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A multi-model framework to assess the role of R&D towards a decarbonized energy system

Author

Listed:
  • Larissa Nogueira

    (TNO)

  • Francesco Dalla Longa

    (TNO)

  • Lara Aleluia Reis

    (RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment (EIEE), Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC))

  • Laurent Drouet

    (RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment (EIEE), Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC))

  • Zoi Vrontisi

    (E3Modelling)

  • Kostas Fragkiadakis

    (E3Modelling)

  • Evangelos Panos

    (Paul Scherrer Institute)

  • Bob Zwaan

    (TNO
    University of Amsterdam
    Johns Hopkins University)

Abstract

Research and development (R&D) investments foster green innovation, which is key to decarbonize the energy system and attain long-term climate goals. In this paper, we link three integrated assessment models that possess a macroeconomic framework—WITCH, MERGE-ETL, and GEM-E3—with the bottom-up technology-rich energy system model TIAM-ECN, in order to quantitatively explore how investments in R&D can support deep decarbonization pathways. We take advantage of the endogenous technological learning feature of the first three models to derive R&D-induced capital cost reductions for strategic clusters of low-carbon technologies: solar energy, on- and offshore wind energy, carbon capture and storage, advanced fuels, and batteries for electric vehicles. We examine scenarios with different assumptions on CO2 mitigation and R&D policy. These assumptions are harmonized among our four models, and capital cost reductions driven by R&D are exogenously incorporated in TIAM-ECN, which enables a detailed assessment of the required energy transition. Our results show that the stringency of climate change mitigation policy remains the key factor influencing the diffusion of low-carbon technologies, while R&D can support mitigation goals and influence the contribution of different types of technologies. If implemented effectively and without worldwide barriers to knowledge spill-overs, R&D facilitates the deployment of mature technologies such as solar, wind, and electric vehicles, and enables lower overall energy system costs.

Suggested Citation

  • Larissa Nogueira & Francesco Dalla Longa & Lara Aleluia Reis & Laurent Drouet & Zoi Vrontisi & Kostas Fragkiadakis & Evangelos Panos & Bob Zwaan, 2023. "A multi-model framework to assess the role of R&D towards a decarbonized energy system," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(7), pages 1-22, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:176:y:2023:i:7:d:10.1007_s10584-023-03553-w
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-023-03553-w
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    References listed on IDEAS

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