IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v176y2023i11d10.1007_s10584-023-03629-7.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Climate-induced shifts in irrigation water demand and supply during sensitive crop growth phases in South Asia

Author

Listed:
  • Qurat-ul-Ain Ahmad

    (VU University Amsterdam
    Ministry of Climate Change (MoCC), Government of Pakistan)

  • Eddy Moors

    (VU University Amsterdam
    IHE Delft, Institute for Water Education)

  • Hester Biemans

    (Wageningen University & Research)

  • Nuzba Shaheen

    (Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC), Ministry of Climate Change, overnment of Pakistan)

  • Ilyas Masih

    (IHE Delft, Institute for Water Education)

  • Muhammad Zia Rahman Hashmi

    (Ministry of Climate Change (MoCC), Government of Pakistan)

Abstract

This study investigated the shifts in irrigation water demand and supply of the major staple and water-intensive crops (wheat and rice) in the Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra (IGB) river basins of South Asia under the combined impacts of climate change and socio-economic development during the period 1981–2100. It explores irrigation water usage during climate-sensitive crop growth phases (i.e. vegetative and reproductive which required ~ 60% of the total seasonal (sowing to harvest) water demand), which is supposed to be crucial for long-term integrated crop water management. A hydrology vegetation model Lund Potsdam Jena Managed Land is forced with an ensemble of eight downscaled (5 arc-min) global climate model’s using the RCP (Representative concentration pathways) -SSP (Shared socio-economic pathways) framework, i.e. RCP4.5-SSP1 and RCP8.5-SSP3. To investigate phase-specific crop water projections, trend analysis is performed. It shows a significant (p

Suggested Citation

  • Qurat-ul-Ain Ahmad & Eddy Moors & Hester Biemans & Nuzba Shaheen & Ilyas Masih & Muhammad Zia Rahman Hashmi, 2023. "Climate-induced shifts in irrigation water demand and supply during sensitive crop growth phases in South Asia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(11), pages 1-22, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:176:y:2023:i:11:d:10.1007_s10584-023-03629-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-023-03629-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-023-03629-7
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-023-03629-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. P. D. A. Kraaijenbrink & M. F. P. Bierkens & A. F. Lutz & W. W. Immerzeel, 2017. "Impact of a global temperature rise of 1.5 degrees Celsius on Asia’s glaciers," Nature, Nature, vol. 549(7671), pages 257-260, September.
    2. Hussain, Syed Sajidin & Mudasser, Muhammad, 2007. "Prospects for wheat production under changing climate in mountain areas of Pakistan - An econometric analysis," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 494-501, May.
    3. Ambast, S.K. & Tyagi, N.K. & Raul, S.K., 2006. "Management of declining groundwater in the Trans Indo-Gangetic Plain (India): Some options," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 82(3), pages 279-296, April.
    4. Xiao, Dengpan & Liu, De Li & Wang, Bin & Feng, Puyu & Bai, Huizi & Tang, Jianzhao, 2020. "Climate change impact on yields and water use of wheat and maize in the North China Plain under future climate change scenarios," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 238(C).
    5. Detlef Vuuren & Timothy Carter, 2014. "Climate and socio-economic scenarios for climate change research and assessment: reconciling the new with the old," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 415-429, February.
    6. Fujisaka, Sam & Harrington, Larry & Hobbs, Peter, 1994. "Rice-Wheat in South Asia: Systems and long-term priorities established through diagnostic research," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 169-187.
    7. Acharjee, Tapos Kumar & van Halsema, Gerardo & Ludwig, Fulco & Hellegers, Petra & Supit, Iwan, 2019. "Shifting planting date of Boro rice as a climate change adaptation strategy to reduce water use," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 131-143.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yan He & Yanxia Zhao & Shao Sun & Jiayi Fang & Yi Zhang & Qing Sun & Li Liu & Yihong Duan & Xiaokang Hu & Peijun Shi, 2024. "Global warming determines future increase in compound dry and hot days within wheat growing seasons worldwide," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 177(4), pages 1-22, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Erenstein, Olaf, 2011. "Cropping systems and crop residue management in the Trans-Gangetic Plains: Issues and challenges for conservation agriculture from village surveys," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 104(1), pages 54-62, January.
    2. Jeetendra Prakash Aryal & Tek B. Sapkota & Ritika Khurana & Arun Khatri-Chhetri & Dil Bahadur Rahut & M. L. Jat, 2020. "Climate change and agriculture in South Asia: adaptation options in smallholder production systems," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(6), pages 5045-5075, August.
    3. Islam, AFM Tariqul & Islam, AKM Saiful & Islam, GM Tarekul & Bala, Sujit Kumar & Salehin, Mashfiqus & Choudhury, Apurba Kanti & Dey, Nepal C. & Hossain, Akbar, 2022. "Adaptation strategies to increase water productivity of wheat under changing climate," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).
    4. Syed Asif Ali Naqvi & Abdul Majeed Nadeem & Muhammad Amjed Iqbal & Sadia Ali & Asia Naseem, 2019. "Assessing the Vulnerabilities of Current and Future Production Systems in Punjab, Pakistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-13, September.
    5. Hanjra, Munir A. & Qureshi, M. Ejaz, 2010. "Global water crisis and future food security in an era of climate change," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 365-377, October.
    6. Nasir Munir & Adiqa Kiani & Asia Baig, 2016. "Climate Change and Food Security in Pakistan: A Time Series Analysis," Global Economics Review, Humanity Only, vol. 1(1), pages 47-55, December.
    7. Erenstein, Olaf, 2009. "Zero tillage in the rice-wheat systems of the Indo-Gangetic Plains: A review of impacts and sustainability implications," IFPRI discussion papers 916, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    8. P. Harrison & R. Dunford & C. Savin & M. Rounsevell & I. Holman & A. Kebede & B. Stuch, 2015. "Cross-sectoral impacts of climate change and socio-economic change for multiple, European land- and water-based sectors," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 128(3), pages 279-292, February.
    9. Muhammad AKBAR & Abdul JABBAR, 2017. "Impact of macroeconomic policies on national food security in Pakistan: simulation analyses under a simultaneous equations framework," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 63(10), pages 471-488.
    10. Mruthyunjaya & Pal, Suresh & Saxena, Raka, 2003. "Agricultural Research Priorities for South Asia," Policy Papers 344966, ICAR National Institute of Agricultural Economics and Policy Research (NIAP).
    11. Seher Muneer & Khuda Bakhsh & Rafaqet Ali & Muhammad Asim Yasin & Muhammad Asif Kamran, 2024. "Farm households' perception and adaptation to climate change in relation of food crop productivity in Pakistan," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(5), pages 11379-11396, May.
    12. Kumar, M. Dinesh & van Dam, J. C., 2009. "Improving water productivity in agriculture in India: beyond \u2018more crop per drop\u2019," IWMI Books, Reports H042639, International Water Management Institute.
    13. Na Li & Tangzhe Nie & Yi Tang & Dehao Lu & Tianyi Wang & Zhongxue Zhang & Peng Chen & Tiecheng Li & Linghui Meng & Yang Jiao & Kaiwen Cheng, 2022. "Responses of Soybean Water Supply and Requirement to Future Climate Conditions in Heilongjiang Province," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-21, July.
    14. Spalding-Fecher, Randall. & Senatla, Mamahloko & Yamba, Francis & Lukwesa, Biness & Himunzowa, Grayson & Heaps, Charles & Chapman, Arthur & Mahumane, Gilberto & Tembo, Bernard & Nyambe, Imasiku, 2017. "Electricity supply and demand scenarios for the Southern African power pool," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 403-414.
    15. Takeshima, Hiroyuki & Kishore, Avinash & Kumar, Anjani, 2024. "Climate shocks and fertilizer responses: Field-level evidence for rice production in Bangladesh," IAAE 2024 Conference, August 2-7, 2024, New Delhi, India 344280, International Association of Agricultural Economists (IAAE).
    16. Chen-Yang Shou & Ye Tian & Bin Zhou & Xu-Jin Fu & Yun-Ji Zhu & Fu-Jun Yue, 2022. "The Effect of Rainfall on Aquatic Nitrogen and Phosphorus in a Semi-Humid Area Catchment, Northern China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(17), pages 1-14, September.
    17. Wolf, Joost & Kanellopoulos, Argyris & Kros, Johannes & Webber, Heidi & Zhao, Gang & Britz, Wolfgang & Reinds, Gert Jan & Ewert, Frank & de Vries, Wim, 2015. "Combined analysis of climate, technological and price changes on future arable farming systems in Europe," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 56-73.
    18. Titta Majasalmi & Micky Allen & Clara Antón-Fernández & Rasmus Astrup & Ryan M. Bright, 2020. "A simple grid-based framework for simulating forest structural trajectories linked to transient forest management scenarios in Fennoscandia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(4), pages 2139-2155, October.
    19. Emily Ho & David V. Budescu & Valentina Bosetti & Detlef P. Vuuren & Klaus Keller, 2019. "Not all carbon dioxide emission scenarios are equally likely: a subjective expert assessment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 155(4), pages 545-561, August.
    20. Chauhdary, Junaid Nawaz & Li, Hong & Akbar, Nadeem & Javaid, Maria & Rizwan, Muhammad & Akhlaq, Muhammad, 2024. "Evaluating corn production under different plant spacings through integrated modeling approach and simulating its future response under climate change scenarios," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:176:y:2023:i:11:d:10.1007_s10584-023-03629-7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.