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Climate-induced shifts in irrigation water demand and supply during sensitive crop growth phases in South Asia

Author

Listed:
  • Qurat-ul-Ain Ahmad

    (VU University Amsterdam
    Ministry of Climate Change (MoCC), Government of Pakistan)

  • Eddy Moors

    (VU University Amsterdam
    IHE Delft, Institute for Water Education)

  • Hester Biemans

    (Wageningen University & Research)

  • Nuzba Shaheen

    (Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC), Ministry of Climate Change, overnment of Pakistan)

  • Ilyas Masih

    (IHE Delft, Institute for Water Education)

  • Muhammad Zia Rahman Hashmi

    (Ministry of Climate Change (MoCC), Government of Pakistan)

Abstract

This study investigated the shifts in irrigation water demand and supply of the major staple and water-intensive crops (wheat and rice) in the Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra (IGB) river basins of South Asia under the combined impacts of climate change and socio-economic development during the period 1981–2100. It explores irrigation water usage during climate-sensitive crop growth phases (i.e. vegetative and reproductive which required ~ 60% of the total seasonal (sowing to harvest) water demand), which is supposed to be crucial for long-term integrated crop water management. A hydrology vegetation model Lund Potsdam Jena Managed Land is forced with an ensemble of eight downscaled (5 arc-min) global climate model’s using the RCP (Representative concentration pathways) -SSP (Shared socio-economic pathways) framework, i.e. RCP4.5-SSP1 and RCP8.5-SSP3. To investigate phase-specific crop water projections, trend analysis is performed. It shows a significant (p

Suggested Citation

  • Qurat-ul-Ain Ahmad & Eddy Moors & Hester Biemans & Nuzba Shaheen & Ilyas Masih & Muhammad Zia Rahman Hashmi, 2023. "Climate-induced shifts in irrigation water demand and supply during sensitive crop growth phases in South Asia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(11), pages 1-22, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:176:y:2023:i:11:d:10.1007_s10584-023-03629-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-023-03629-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hussain, Syed Sajidin & Mudasser, Muhammad, 2007. "Prospects for wheat production under changing climate in mountain areas of Pakistan - An econometric analysis," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 494-501, May.
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    3. P. D. A. Kraaijenbrink & M. F. P. Bierkens & A. F. Lutz & W. W. Immerzeel, 2017. "Impact of a global temperature rise of 1.5 degrees Celsius on Asia’s glaciers," Nature, Nature, vol. 549(7671), pages 257-260, September.
    4. Ambast, S.K. & Tyagi, N.K. & Raul, S.K., 2006. "Management of declining groundwater in the Trans Indo-Gangetic Plain (India): Some options," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 82(3), pages 279-296, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yan He & Yanxia Zhao & Shao Sun & Jiayi Fang & Yi Zhang & Qing Sun & Li Liu & Yihong Duan & Xiaokang Hu & Peijun Shi, 2024. "Global warming determines future increase in compound dry and hot days within wheat growing seasons worldwide," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 177(4), pages 1-22, April.

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