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Evaluating opportunities for an increased role of winter crops as adaptation to climate change in dryland cropping systems of the U.S. Inland Pacific Northwest

Author

Listed:
  • Claudio O. Stöckle

    (Washington State University)

  • Stewart Higgins

    (Washington State University)

  • Roger Nelson

    (Washington State University)

  • John Abatzoglou

    (University of Idaho)

  • Dave Huggins

    (Northwest Sustainable Agroecosystems Research, USDA-ARS)

  • William Pan

    (Washington State University)

  • Tina Karimi

    (Washington State University)

  • John Antle

    (Oregon State University)

  • Sanford D. Eigenbrode

    (University of Idaho)

  • Erin Brooks

    (University of Idaho)

Abstract

The long-term sustainability of wheat-based dryland cropping systems in the Inland Pacific Northwest (IPNW) of the United States depends on how these systems adapt to climate change. Climate models project warming with slight increases in winter precipitation but drier summers for the IPNW. These conditions combined with elevated atmospheric CO2, which promote crop growth and improve transpiration-use efficiency, may be beneficial for cropping systems in the IPNW and may provide regional opportunities for agricultural diversification and intensification. Crop modeling simulation under future climatic conditions showed increased wheat productivity for the IPNW for most of the century. Water use by winter wheat was projected to decrease significantly in higher and intermediate precipitation zones and increase slightly in drier locations, but with winter crops utilizing significantly more water overall than spring crops. Crop diversification with inclusion of winter crops other than wheat is a possibility depending on agronomic and economic considerations, while substitution of winter for spring crops appeared feasible only in high precipitation areas. Increased weed pressure, higher pest populations, expanded ranges of biotic stressors, and agronomic, plant breeding, economic, technology, and other factors will influence what production systems eventually prevail under future climatic conditions in the region.

Suggested Citation

  • Claudio O. Stöckle & Stewart Higgins & Roger Nelson & John Abatzoglou & Dave Huggins & William Pan & Tina Karimi & John Antle & Sanford D. Eigenbrode & Erin Brooks, 2018. "Evaluating opportunities for an increased role of winter crops as adaptation to climate change in dryland cropping systems of the U.S. Inland Pacific Northwest," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 146(1), pages 247-261, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:146:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-017-1950-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-1950-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bocchiola, D. & Nana, E. & Soncini, A., 2013. "Impact of climate change scenarios on crop yield and water footprint of maize in the Po valley of Italy," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 50-61.
    2. AfDB AfDB, . "Annual Report 2012," Annual Report, African Development Bank, number 461.
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    Cited by:

    1. Schillinger, William F. & Wuest, Stewart B., 2021. "Wheat stubble height effects on soil water capture and retention during long fallow," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 256(C).
    2. Erich Seamon & Paul E. Gessler & John T. Abatzoglou & Philip W. Mote & Stephen S. Lee, 2023. "Climatic Damage Cause Variations of Agricultural Insurance Loss for the Pacific Northwest Region of the United States," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-13, November.
    3. Xie, Yalin & Lei, Xiangdong & Shi, Jingning, 2020. "Impacts of climate change on biological rotation of Larix olgensis plantations for timber production and carbon storage in northeast China using the 3-PGmix model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 435(C).
    4. Alexander Maas & Chloe Wardropper & Gabrielle Roesch-McNally & John Abatzoglou, 2020. "A (mis)alignment of farmer experience and perceptions of climate change in the U.S. inland Pacific Northwest," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(3), pages 1011-1029, October.
    5. Kothari, Kritika & Ale, Srinivasulu & Attia, Ahmed & Rajan, Nithya & Xue, Qingwu & Munster, Clyde L., 2019. "Potential climate change adaptation strategies for winter wheat production in the Texas High Plains," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).

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