IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Tropical semi-arid regions expanding over temperate latitudes under climate change


  • Amélie Rajaud

    (LSCE (Laboratoire des sciences du climat et de l’environnement))

  • Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré

    (LSCE (Laboratoire des sciences du climat et de l’environnement))


Highly populated, water-limited and warm drylands are challenging areas for development and are expected to expand overall under several scenarios of climate change. Here, we adopt a bioclimatic approach based on the Köppen classification to focus on the evolution of warm semi-arid regions over the projected twenty-first century, following three socio-economic scenarios and 12 global climate models from the last IPCC exercise (CMIP5). We show that a global expansion of this climatic domain has already started according to climate observations in the twentieth century (about + 13% of surface increase, i.e. from 6 to 7% of the global land surface). Models project that this expansion will continue throughout the twenty-first century, whatever the scenario: for the most dramatic one (RCP 8.5), the share of the total land surface occupied by warm semi-arid surfaces is about 38% higher in 2100 compared to the present (from ∼ 7 to ∼ 9% of the global land surface). This expansion will essentially take place outside of the tropical belt, showing a poleward migration as large as 11∘ of latitude in the Northern Hemisphere. This expansion is linearly correlated with the projected future global warming (about 853 millions km2 per degree of warming for RCP 8.5). Different types of climate class transitions and their associated mechanisms are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Amélie Rajaud & Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré, 2017. "Tropical semi-arid regions expanding over temperate latitudes under climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 144(4), pages 703-719, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:144:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s10584-017-2052-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2052-7

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL:
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Junichi Fujino, Rajesh Nair, Mikiko Kainuma, Toshihiko Masui and Yuzuru Matsuoka, 2006. "Multi-gas Mitigation Analysis on Stabilization Scenarios Using Aim Global Model," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 343-354.
    2. Detlef Vuuren & Jae Edmonds & Mikiko Kainuma & Keywan Riahi & Allison Thomson & Kathy Hibbard & George Hurtt & Tom Kram & Volker Krey & Jean-Francois Lamarque & Toshihiko Masui & Malte Meinshausen & N, 2011. "The representative concentration pathways: an overview," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 5-31, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Hadi Galavi & Majid Mirzaei, 2020. "Analyzing Uncertainty Drivers of Climate Change Impact Studies in Tropical and Arid Climates," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(6), pages 2097-2109, April.
    2. Song, Younho & Cho, Eun Jin & Park, Chan Song & Oh, Chi Hoon & Park, Bok-Jae & Bae, Hyeun-Jong, 2019. "A strategy for sequential fermentation by Saccharomyces cerevisiae and Pichia stipitis in bioethanol production from hardwoods," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 1281-1289.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Angel Manuel Benitez Rodriguez & Ian Michael Trotter, 2019. "Climate change scenarios for Paraguayan power demand 2017–2050," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 156(3), pages 425-445, October.
    2. Zenebe Mekonnen, 2020. "Precipitation and Temperature Projections for Medium High Emission Scenario by General Circulation Models for Ethiopia," International Journal of Environmental Sciences & Natural Resources, Juniper Publishers Inc., vol. 23(4), pages 131-139, March.
    3. Guerra, Omar J. & Tejada, Diego A. & Reklaitis, Gintaras V., 2019. "Climate change impacts and adaptation strategies for a hydro-dominated power system via stochastic optimization," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 233, pages 584-598.
    4. Dubravka Milić & Snežana Radenković & Dimitrije Radišić & Andrijana Andrić & Tijana Nikolić & Ante Vujić, 2019. "Stability and changes in the distribution of Pipiza hoverflies (Diptera, Syrphidae) in Europe under projected future climate conditions," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(9), pages 1-19, September.
    5. Gupta, Rishabh & Mishra, Ashok, 2019. "Climate change induced impact and uncertainty of rice yield of agro-ecological zones of India," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 1-11.
    6. Voisin, Nathalie & Dyreson, Ana & Fu, Tao & O'Connell, Matt & Turner, Sean W.D. & Zhou, Tian & Macknick, Jordan, 2020. "Impact of climate change on water availability and its propagation through the Western U.S. power grid," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    7. Qian, Yuan & Scherer, Laura & Tukker, Arnold & Behrens, Paul, 2020. "China's potential SO2 emissions from coal by 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    8. Cristina Cattaneo & Emanuele Massetti, 2019. "Does Harmful Climate Increase Or Decrease Migration? Evidence From Rural Households In Nigeria," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(04), pages 1-36, November.
    9. Pascalle Smith & Georg Heinrich & Martin Suklitsch & Andreas Gobiet & Markus Stoffel & Jürg Fuhrer, 2014. "Station-scale bias correction and uncertainty analysis for the estimation of irrigation water requirements in the Swiss Rhone catchment under climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 127(3), pages 521-534, December.
    10. T.M.L. Wigley, 2018. "The Paris warming targets: emissions requirements and sea level consequences," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 147(1), pages 31-45, March.
    11. Kalkuhl, Matthias & Wenz, Leonie, 2020. "The impact of climate conditions on economic production. Evidence from a global panel of regions," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    12. Hwang, In Chang, 2013. "Stochastic Kaya model and its applications," MPRA Paper 55099, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Roberto Roson & Richard Damania, 2016. "Simulating the Macroeconomic Impact of Future Water Scarcity: an Assessment of Alternative Scenarios," IEFE Working Papers 84, IEFE, Center for Research on Energy and Environmental Economics and Policy, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    14. Le Bars, Dewi, 2018. "Uncertainty in sea level rise projections due to the dependence between contributors," Earth Arxiv uvw3s, Center for Open Science.
    15. Taylor, Chris & Cullen, Brendan & D'Occhio, Michael & Rickards, Lauren & Eckard, Richard, 2018. "Trends in wheat yields under representative climate futures: Implications for climate adaptation," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 1-10.
    16. Henzler, Julia & Weise, Hanna & Enright, Neal J. & Zander, Susanne & Tietjen, Britta, 2018. "A squeeze in the suitable fire interval: Simulating the persistence of fire-killed plants in a Mediterranean-type ecosystem under drier conditions," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 389(C), pages 41-49.
    17. Milan Ščasný & Emanuele Massetti & Jan Melichar & Samuel Carrara, 2015. "Quantifying the Ancillary Benefits of the Representative Concentration Pathways on Air Quality in Europe," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 62(2), pages 383-415, October.
    18. Habtemariam, Lemlem Teklegiorgis & Abate Kassa, Getachew & Gandorfer, Markus, 2017. "Impact of climate change on farms in smallholder farming systems: Yield impacts, economic implications and distributional effects," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 58-66.
    19. Allen-Dumas, Melissa R. & Rose, Amy N. & New, Joshua R. & Omitaomu, Olufemi A. & Yuan, Jiangye & Branstetter, Marcia L. & Sylvester, Linda M. & Seals, Matthew B. & Carvalhaes, Thomaz M. & Adams, Mark , 2020. "Impacts of the morphology of new neighborhoods on microclimate and building energy," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    20. Yong Chen & Gary W. Marek & Thomas H. Marek & Dana O. Porter & Jerry E. Moorhead & Qingyu Wang & Kevin R. Heflin & David K. Brauer, 2020. "Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Historical and Future Climate Data in the Texas High Plains," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-19, July.

    More about this item


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:144:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s10584-017-2052-7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.