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How will climate change spatially affect agriculture production in Ethiopia? Case studies of important cereal crops

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  • Paul Evangelista
  • Nicholas Young
  • Jonathan Burnett

Abstract

Nearly all of Ethiopia’s agriculture is dependent on rainfall, particularly the amount and seasonal occurrence. Future climate change predictions agree that changes in rainfall, temperature, and seasonality will impact Ethiopia with dramatic consequences. When, where, and how these changes will transpire has not been adequately addressed. The objective of our study was to model how projected climate change scenarios will spatially and temporally impact cereal production, a dietary staple for millions of Ethiopians. We used Maxent software fit with crop data collected from household surveys and bioclimatic variables from the WorldClim database to develop spatially explicit models of crop production in Ethiopia. Our results were extrapolated to three climate change projections (i.e., Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis, Hadley Centre Coupled Model v3, and Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization), each having two emission scenarios. Model evaluations indicated that our results had strong predictability for all four cereal crops with area under the curve values of 0.79, 0.81, 0.79, and 0.83 for teff, maize, sorghum, and barley, respectively. As expected, bioclimatic variables related to rainfall were the greatest predictors for all four cereal crops. All models showed similar decreasing spatial trends in cereal production. In addition, there were geographic shifts in land suitability which need to be accounted for when assessing overall vulnerability to climate change. The ability to adapt to climate change will be critical for Ethiopia’s agricultural system and food security. Spatially explicit models will be vital for developing early warning systems, adaptive strategies, and policy to minimize the negative impacts of climate change on food production. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Evangelista & Nicholas Young & Jonathan Burnett, 2013. "How will climate change spatially affect agriculture production in Ethiopia? Case studies of important cereal crops," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 119(3), pages 855-873, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:119:y:2013:i:3:p:855-873
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0776-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. World Bank, 2010. "Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change : Ethiopia," World Bank Publications - Reports 12504, The World Bank Group.
    2. Oecd, 2009. "Climate Change and Africa," OECD Journal: General Papers, OECD Publishing, vol. 2009(1), pages 5-35.
    3. Clionadh Raleigh & Dominic Kniveton, 2012. "Come rain or shine: An analysis of conflict and climate variability in East Africa," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 49(1), pages 51-64, January.
    4. Temesgen Tadesse Deressa & Rashid M. Hassan, 2009. "Economic Impact of Climate Change on Crop Production in Ethiopia: Evidence from Cross-section Measures," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 18(4), pages 529-554, August.
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    2. Mulubrhan Amare & Bekele Shiferaw & Hiroyuki Takeshima & George Mavrotas, 2021. "Variability in agricultural productivity and rural household consumption inequality: Evidence from Nigeria and Uganda," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 52(1), pages 19-36, January.
    3. Teferi, Ermias Tesfaye & Kassie, Girma T. & Pe, Mario Enrico & Fadda, Carlo, 2020. "Are farmers willing to pay for climate related traits of wheat? Evidence from rural parts of Ethiopia," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
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    5. Mary Ann Cunningham, 2022. "Climate Change, Agriculture, and Biodiversity: How Does Shifting Agriculture Affect Habitat Availability?," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-13, August.
    6. Yalew, Amsalu W. & Hirte, Georg & Lotze-Campen, Hermann & Tscharaktschiew, Stefan, 2017. "Economic effects of climate change in developing countries: Economy-wide and regional analysis for Ethiopia," CEPIE Working Papers 10/17, Technische Universität Dresden, Center of Public and International Economics (CEPIE).
    7. Amsalu Woldie Yalew & Georg Hirte & Hermann Lotze-Campen & Stefan Tscharaktschiew, 2018. "Climate Change, Agriculture, and Economic Development in Ethiopia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-23, September.
    8. Luzian Messmer & Braida Thom & Pius Kruetli & Evans Dawoe & Kebebew Assefa & Johan Six & Jonas Joerin, 2021. "Beyond feasibility—the role of motivation to implement measures to enhance resilience," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 26(5), pages 1-24, June.
    9. Habtemariam, Lemlem Teklegiorgis & Abate Kassa, Getachew & Gandorfer, Markus, 2017. "Impact of climate change on farms in smallholder farming systems: Yield impacts, economic implications and distributional effects," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 58-66.
    10. Tamirat B. Jimma & Abel Chemura & Charles Spillane & Teferi Demissie & Wuletawu Abera & Kassahun Ture & Tadesse Terefe & Dawit Solomon & Stephanie Gleixner, 2024. "Coupled Impacts of Soil Acidification and Climate Change on Future Crop Suitability in Ethiopia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-17, February.
    11. Getu Hailu & Alfons Weersink & Bart Minten, 2017. "Determinants of the Productivity of Teff in Ethiopia," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 29(4), pages 866-892, August.
    12. Abel Chemura & Dumisani Kutywayo & Danisile Hikwa & Christoph Gornott, 2022. "Climate change and cocoyam (Colocasia esculenta (L.) Schott) production: assessing impacts and potential adaptation strategies in Zimbabwe," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 27(6), pages 1-20, August.
    13. Tesfaye, Abonesh & Hansen, James & Kassie, Girma Tesfahun & Radeny, Maren & Solomon, Dawit, 2019. "Estimating the economic value of climate services for strengthening resilience of smallholder farmers to climate risks in Ethiopia: A choice experiment approach," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 157-168.
    14. Michael L. Mann & James M. Warner & Arun S. Malik, 2019. "Predicting high-magnitude, low-frequency crop losses using machine learning: an application to cereal crops in Ethiopia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 154(1), pages 211-227, May.
    15. Tsegaye Ginbo, 2022. "Heterogeneous impacts of climate change on crop yields across altitudes in Ethiopia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(1), pages 1-21, January.

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