IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/cejnor/v21y2013i2p277-293.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Neural network calibrated stochastic processes: forecasting financial assets

Author

Listed:
  • Stefan Giebel
  • Martin Rainer

Abstract

If a given dynamical process contains an inherently unpredictable component, it may be modeled as a stochastic process. Typical examples from financial markets are the dynamics of prices (e.g. prices of stocks or commodities) or fundamental rates (exchange rates etc.). The unknown future value of the corresponding stochastic process is usually estimated as the expected value under a suitable measure, which may be determined from distribution of past (historical) values. The predictive power of this estimation is limited by the simplifying assumptions of common calibration methods. Here we propose a novel method of “intelligent” calibration, using learning (2-layer) neural networks in order to dynamically adapt the parameters of a stochastic model to the most recent time series of fixed length (memory depth) to the past. The process parameters are determined by the weights of the intermediate layer of the neural network. The final layer combines these parameters in a meaningful manner yielding the forecasting value for the stochastic process. On each actual finite memory, the neural network is trained by back-propagation, obtaining a much more flexible and realistic parameter calibration than an analogous fit to an autoregressive models could do. In the context of processes related to financial assets, the final combination of the output layer relates to their market-price-of-risk. The back propagation is limited to the typical memory length of the financial market (for example 10 previous business days). We demonstrate the learning efficiency of the new algorithm by tracking the next-day forecasts with one typical examples each, for the asset classes of currencies and stocks. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Stefan Giebel & Martin Rainer, 2013. "Neural network calibrated stochastic processes: forecasting financial assets," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 21(2), pages 277-293, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:cejnor:v:21:y:2013:i:2:p:277-293
    DOI: 10.1007/s10100-011-0234-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10100-011-0234-3
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10100-011-0234-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zhang, Gioqinang & Hu, Michael Y., 1998. "Neural network forecasting of the British Pound/US Dollar exchange rate," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 495-506, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Polona Pavlovčič-Prešeren & Bojan Stopar & Oskar Sterle, 2019. "Application of different radial basis function networks in the illegal waste dump-surface modelling," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 27(3), pages 783-795, September.
    2. Kartikay Gupta & Niladri Chatterjee, 2021. "Stocks Recommendation from Large Datasets Using Important Company and Economic Indicators," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 28(4), pages 667-689, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Marcos Álvarez-Díaz & Alberto Álvarez, 2002. "Predicción No-Lineal De Tipos De Cambio: Algoritmos Genéticos, Redes Neuronales Y Fusión De Datos," Working Papers 0205, Universidade de Vigo, Departamento de Economía Aplicada.
    2. Sun, Shaolong & Wang, Shouyang & Wei, Yunjie, 2019. "A new multiscale decomposition ensemble approach for forecasting exchange rates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 49-58.
    3. Mustapha Djennas & Mohamed Benbouziane & Meriem Djennas, 2011. "An Approach of Combining Empirical Mode Decomposition and Neural Network Learning for Currency Crisis Forecasting," Working Papers 627, Economic Research Forum, revised 09 Jan 2011.
    4. Shaogao Lv & Yongchao Hou & Hongwei Zhou, 2019. "Financial Market Directional Forecasting With Stacked Denoising Autoencoder," Papers 1912.00712, arXiv.org.
    5. Kanazawa, Nobuyuki, 2020. "Radial basis functions neural networks for nonlinear time series analysis and time-varying effects of supply shocks," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    6. Khurshid Kiani & Terry Kastens, 2008. "Testing Forecast Accuracy of Foreign Exchange Rates: Predictions from Feed Forward and Various Recurrent Neural Network Architectures," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 32(4), pages 383-406, November.
    7. Chakradhara Panda & V. Narasimhan, 2006. "Predicting Stock Returns," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 7(2), pages 205-218, September.
    8. Ioannidis, Christos & Pasiouras, Fotios & Zopounidis, Constantin, 2010. "Assessing bank soundness with classification techniques," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 345-357, October.
    9. Fu, Sibao & Li, Yongwu & Sun, Shaolong & Li, Hongtao, 2019. "Evolutionary support vector machine for RMB exchange rate forecasting," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 521(C), pages 692-704.
    10. Hwarng, H. Brian & Ang, H. T., 2001. "A simple neural network for ARMA(p,q) time series," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 319-333, August.
    11. Cem Kadilar & Muammer Simsek & Cagdas Hakan Aladag, 2009. "Forecasting The Exchange Rate Series With Ann: The Case Of Turkey," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 9(1), pages 17-29, May.
    12. Tay, Francis E. H. & Cao, Lijuan, 2001. "Application of support vector machines in financial time series forecasting," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 309-317, August.
    13. Hwarng, H. Brian, 2001. "Insights into neural-network forecasting of time series corresponding to ARMA(p,q) structures," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 273-289, June.
    14. Peter Nielsen & Liping Jiang & Niels Gorm Malý Rytter & Gang Chen, 2014. "An investigation of forecast horizon and observation fit's influence on an econometric rate forecast model in the liner shipping industry," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(7), pages 667-682, December.
    15. Söhnke M. Bartram & Jürgen Branke & Mehrshad Motahari, 2020. "Artificial intelligence in asset management," Working Papers 20202001, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    16. Chen, Kuan-Yu, 2007. "Forecasting systems reliability based on support vector regression with genetic algorithms," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(4), pages 423-432.
    17. Zuzana Rowland & George Lazaroiu & Ivana Podhorská, 2020. "Use of Neural Networks to Accommodate Seasonal Fluctuations When Equalizing Time Series for the CZK/RMB Exchange Rate," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-21, December.
    18. Marcos Álvarez-Díaz & Rangan Gupta, 2015. "Forecasting the US CPI: Does Nonlinearity Matter?," Working Papers 201512, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    19. Panda, Chakradhara & Narasimhan, V., 2007. "Forecasting exchange rate better with artificial neural network," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 227-236.
    20. Jing Yang & Nikola Gradojevic, 2006. "Non-linear, non-parametric, non-fundamental exchange rate forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 227-245.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:cejnor:v:21:y:2013:i:2:p:277-293. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.