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Modelling Global Mining, Secondary Extraction, Supply, Stocks-in-Society, Recycling, Market Price and Resources, Using the WORLD6 Model; Tin

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  • Anna Hulda Olafsdottir

    (University of Iceland)

  • Harald Ulrik Sverdrup

    (University of Iceland)

Abstract

The extraction, supply, market price, and recycling of tin (Sn) were modelled using the WORLD6 model. The model used estimates for primary resources of tin and secondary production from copper, zinc, lead, and wolfram. The resource estimates made resulted in significantly larger estimates than earlier studies for tin. Ultimately recoverable resources amount to 87 million tons, where 20 million tons is primary and the rest are secondary as by-products from refining of wolfram, copper, zinc, and lead from primary mining. The model is able to reconstruct the observed mining, extraction rates, recycling degree, and price histories well. The model outputs illustrate that tin is a finite resource and that there is a risk for supply scarcity unless the degree of recycling will be significantly improved. Soft scarcity for tin will develop around 2050, i.e. when demand exceeds supply resulting in higher price and then decreases because of higher prices, and convert into hard scarcity around 2150 AD, where the amounts demanded simply cannot be delivered. For tin, there are good substitutes for many uses, but some of them imply some loss in functionality.

Suggested Citation

  • Anna Hulda Olafsdottir & Harald Ulrik Sverdrup, 2018. "Modelling Global Mining, Secondary Extraction, Supply, Stocks-in-Society, Recycling, Market Price and Resources, Using the WORLD6 Model; Tin," Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 1-17, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:bioerq:v:3:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s41247-018-0041-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s41247-018-0041-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Tilton, John E. & Lagos, Gustavo, 2007. "Assessing the long-run availability of copper," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(1-2), pages 19-23.
    2. Neumayer, Eric, 2000. "Scarce or Abundant? The Economics of Natural Resource Availability," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(3), pages 307-335, July.
    3. Rosenau-Tornow, Dirk & Buchholz, Peter & Riemann, Axel & Wagner, Markus, 2009. "Assessing the long-term supply risks for mineral raw materials--a combined evaluation of past and future trends," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 161-175, December.
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    5. Eric Neumayer, 2000. "Scarce or Abundant? The Economics of Natural Resource Availability," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(3), pages 307-335, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Harald Ulrik Sverdrup & Anna Hulda Olafsdottir & Kristin Vala Ragnarsdottir & Deniz Koca, 2018. "A System Dynamics Assessment of the Supply of Molybdenum and Rhenium Used for Super-alloys and Specialty Steels, Using the WORLD6 Model," Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 1-43, September.
    2. Harald Ulrik Sverdrup & Anna Hulda Olafsdottir, 2018. "A System Dynamics Model Assessment of the Supply of Niobium and Tantalum Using the WORLD6 Model," Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 1-35, June.

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