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Are small communities at risk of population loss?

  • Yong Chen

    ()

  • Lena Etuk
  • Bruce Weber
Registered author(s):

    Small communities almost universally worry about out-migration and the negative effects of out-migration on community viability. Using Oregon community-level data and applying the threshold estimation method of Hansen (Econometrica 68(3):575–603, 2000 ), we are able to identify population thresholds that distinguish small communities from their larger counterparts based on significant structural differences in factors affecting net migration. Our results suggest that smaller communities are more at risk of population decline than larger ones. After controlling for spatial spillovers from neighboring communities, the average net migration rate is 3 % in the larger communities (roughly above 5,000 population), 2 % in the mid-sized communities (roughly between 1,250 and 5,000) and $$-3$$ % in the smallest communities (roughly less than 1,250). Other things equal, geographic isolation from large cities and low wage rates provide some protection from net out-migration for the smallest communities, but even for the smallest places, a larger population base lowers the risk of net out-migration. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013

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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s00168-012-0541-1
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    Article provided by Springer & Western Regional Science Association in its journal The Annals of Regional Science.

    Volume (Year): 51 (2013)
    Issue (Month): 2 (October)
    Pages: 343-353

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    Handle: RePEc:spr:anresc:v:51:y:2013:i:2:p:343-353
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    1. Jan Eeckhout, 2004. "Gibrat's Law for (All) Cities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(5), pages 1429-1451, December.
    2. Jeanty, P. Wilner & Partridge, Mark & Irwin, Elena, 2010. "Estimation of a spatial simultaneous equation model of population migration and housing price dynamics," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(5), pages 343-352, September.
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    5. Bruce E. Hansen, 1997. "Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing and inference," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 365, Boston College Department of Economics.
    6. Hansen, B.E., 1991. "Inference when a Nuisance Parameter is Not Identified Under the Null Hypothesis," RCER Working Papers 296, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
    7. Bruce E. Hansen, 2000. "Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(3), pages 575-604, May.
    8. Rappaport, Jordan & Sachs, Jeffrey D, 2003. "The United States as a Coastal Nation," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 5-46, March.
    9. Katherine Curtis White, 2008. "Population change and farm dependence: Temporal and spatial variation in the U.S. great plains, 1900–2000," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 45(2), pages 363-386, May.
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    11. Mark Ferguson & Kamar Ali & M. Rose Olfert & Mark Partridge, 2007. "Voting with Their Feet: Jobs versus Amenities," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(1), pages 77-110.
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