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Spectral risk measure of holding stocks in the long run

Author

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  • Zsolt Bihary

    (Corvinus University of Budapest)

  • Péter Csóka

    (Corvinus University of Budapest
    Centre for Economic and Regional Studies)

  • Dávid Zoltán Szabó

    (Independent Researcher)

Abstract

We investigate how the spectral risk measure associated with holding stocks rather than a risk-free deposit, depends on the holding period. Previous papers have shown that within a limited class of spectral risk measures, and when the stock price follows specific processes, spectral risk becomes negative at long periods. We generalize this result for arbitrary exponential Lévy processes. We also prove the same behavior for all spectral risk measures (including the important special case of Expected Shortfall) when the stock price grows realistically fast and when it follows a geometric Brownian motion or a finite moment log stable process. This result would suggest that holding stocks for long periods has a vanishing downside risk. However, using realistic models, we find numerically that spectral risk initially increases for a significant amount of time and reaches zero level only after several decades. Therefore, we conclude that holding stocks has spectral risk for all practically relevant periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Zsolt Bihary & Péter Csóka & Dávid Zoltán Szabó, 2020. "Spectral risk measure of holding stocks in the long run," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 295(1), pages 75-89, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:295:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1007_s10479-020-03678-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s10479-020-03678-6
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    1. Csóka, Péter & Bihary, Zsolt & Kondor, Gábor, 2018. "A részvénytartás spektrális kockázata hosszú távon [On the spectral measure of risk in holding stocks in the long run]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 687-700.
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    3. Josa-Fombellida, Ricardo & López-Casado, Paula, 2023. "A defined benefit pension plan game with Brownian and Poisson jumps uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 310(3), pages 1294-1311.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Coherent risk measures; Downside risk; Lévy processes; Finite moment log stable model; Time diversification;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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