IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/annopr/v281y2019i1d10.1007_s10479-018-2829-8.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

NORTA for portfolio credit risk

Author

Listed:
  • Mohamed A. Ayadi

    () (Brock University)

  • Hatem Ben-Ameur

    () (HEC Montréal & GERAD)

  • Nabil Channouf

    () (Sultan Qaboos University)

  • Quang Khoi Tran

    () (HEC Montréal)

Abstract

We use NORTA (NORmal To Anything) to enhance normal credit-risk factor settings in modeling common risk factors and capturing contagion effects. NORTA extends the multivariate Normal distribution in that it enables the simulation of a random vector with arbitrary and known marginals and correlation structure. NORTA can be solved either by numerical integration (Cario and Nelson in Modeling and generating random vectors with arbitrary marginal distributions and correlation matrix, Technical report, Department of Industrial Engineering and Management Sciences, Northwestern University, IL, 1997) or by Monte Carlo simulation (Ilich in Eur J Oper Res 192(2):468–478, 2009). The former approach, which is the most efficient, assumes that the marginals’ inverse cumulative functions are given, while the latter, which is more flexible but less efficient, does not. We show how to combine both approaches for higher flexibility and efficiency. We solve for NORTA and experiment with Normal, Student, and Asymmetric Exponential Power (AEP) distributions. We match NORTA models to Normal models with the same marginals’ first and second moments. Yet, differences in credit-risk measures can be highly significant. This supports NORTA as a viable alternative for credit-risk modeling and analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohamed A. Ayadi & Hatem Ben-Ameur & Nabil Channouf & Quang Khoi Tran, 2019. "NORTA for portfolio credit risk," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 281(1), pages 99-119, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:281:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1007_s10479-018-2829-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s10479-018-2829-8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10479-018-2829-8
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ilich, Nesa, 2009. "A matching algorithm for generation of statistically dependent random variables with arbitrary marginals," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 192(2), pages 468-478, January.
    2. Alessandro Barbiero & Pier Alda Ferrari, 2015. "Simulation of correlated Poisson variables," Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(5), pages 669-680, September.
    3. Rosen, Dan & Saunders, David, 2010. "Risk factor contributions in portfolio credit risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 336-349, February.
    4. Renata Mansini & Włodzimierz Ogryczak & M. Speranza, 2007. "Conditional value at risk and related linear programming models for portfolio optimization," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 152(1), pages 227-256, July.
    5. Joshua Chan & Dirk Kroese, 2011. "Rare-event probability estimation with conditional Monte Carlo," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 189(1), pages 43-61, September.
    6. Lucas, Andre & Klaassen, Pieter & Spreij, Peter & Straetmans, Stefan, 2001. "An analytic approach to credit risk of large corporate bond and loan portfolios," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(9), pages 1635-1664, September.
    7. Achal Bassamboo & Sandeep Juneja & Assaf Zeevi, 2008. "Portfolio Credit Risk with Extremal Dependence: Asymptotic Analysis and Efficient Simulation," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 56(3), pages 593-606, June.
    8. Michael C. Fu & L. Jeff Hong & Jian-Qiang Hu, 2009. "Conditional Monte Carlo Estimation of Quantile Sensitivities," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(12), pages 2019-2027, December.
    9. Egloff, Daniel & Leippold, Markus & Vanini, Paolo, 2007. "A simple model of credit contagion," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2475-2492, August.
    10. Paul Glasserman & Wanmo Kang & Perwez Shahabuddin, 2008. "Fast Simulation of Multifactor Portfolio Credit Risk," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 56(5), pages 1200-1217, October.
    11. Grundke, Peter, 2009. "Importance sampling for integrated market and credit portfolio models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 194(1), pages 206-226, April.
    12. Guangwu Liu, 2015. "Simulating Risk Contributions of Credit Portfolios," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 63(1), pages 104-121, February.
    13. Mesfioui, Mhamed & Quessy, Jean-Francois, 2005. "Bounds on the value-at-risk for the sum of possibly dependent risks," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 135-151, August.
    14. Budhi Surya & Ryan Kurniawan, 2014. "Optimal Portfolio Selection Based on Expected Shortfall Under Generalized Hyperbolic Distribution," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 21(3), pages 193-236, September.
    15. Soumyadip Ghosh & Shane G. Henderson, 2002. "Chessboard Distributions and Random Vectors with Specified Marginals and Covariance Matrix," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 50(5), pages 820-834, October.
    16. Paul Glasserman & Jingyi Li, 2005. "Importance Sampling for Portfolio Credit Risk," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(11), pages 1643-1656, November.
    17. Zhu, Dongming & Zinde-Walsh, Victoria, 2009. "Properties and estimation of asymmetric exponential power distribution," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 148(1), pages 86-99, January.
    18. David Saunders & Costas Xiouros & Stavros Zenios, 2007. "Credit risk optimization using factor models," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 152(1), pages 49-77, July.
    19. Athanassios N. Avramidis & Nabil Channouf & Pierre L'Ecuyer, 2009. "Efficient Correlation Matching for Fitting Discrete Multivariate Distributions with Arbitrary Marginals and Normal-Copula Dependence," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 21(1), pages 88-106, February.
    20. Chan, Joshua C.C. & Kroese, Dirk P., 2010. "Efficient estimation of large portfolio loss probabilities in t-copula models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 205(2), pages 361-367, September.
    21. Oleksandr Romanko & Helmut Mausser, 2016. "Robust scenario-based value-at-risk optimization," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 237(1), pages 203-218, February.
    22. Rockafellar, R. Tyrrell & Uryasev, Stanislav, 2002. "Conditional value-at-risk for general loss distributions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1443-1471, July.
    23. Paul Glasserman & Philip Heidelberger & Perwez Shahabuddin, 2002. "Portfolio Value‐at‐Risk with Heavy‐Tailed Risk Factors," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(3), pages 239-269, July.
    24. Oleksandr Romanko & Helmut Mausser, 2016. "Robust scenario-based value-at-risk optimization," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 237(1), pages 203-218, February.
    25. Paul Glasserman & Wanmo Kang & Perwez Shahabuddin, 2007. "Large Deviations In Multifactor Portfolio Credit Risk," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 345-379, July.
    26. Philippe Artzner & Freddy Delbaen & Jean‐Marc Eber & David Heath, 1999. "Coherent Measures of Risk," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 203-228, July.
    27. Marne C. Cario & Barry L. Nelson, 1998. "Numerical Methods for Fitting and Simulating Autoregressive-to-Anything Processes," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 10(1), pages 72-81, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tang, Qihe & Tang, Zhaofeng & Yang, Yang, 2019. "Sharp asymptotics for large portfolio losses under extreme risks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 276(2), pages 710-722.
    2. Rongda Chen & Ze Wang & Lean Yu, 2017. "Importance Sampling for Credit Portfolio Risk with Risk Factors Having t-Copula," International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 16(04), pages 1101-1124, July.
    3. Cheng-Der Fuh & Chuan-Ju Wang, 2017. "Efficient Exponential Tilting for Portfolio Credit Risk," Papers 1711.03744, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2019.
    4. Hsieh, Ming-Hua & Lee, Yi-Hsi & Shyu, So-De & Chiu, Yu-Fen, 2019. "Estimating multifactor portfolio credit risk: A variance reduction approach," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    5. Parrini, Alessandro, 2013. "Importance Sampling for Portfolio Credit Risk in Factor Copula Models," MPRA Paper 103745, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Soumyadip Ghosh & Raghu Pasupathy, 2012. "C-NORTA: A Rejection Procedure for Sampling from the Tail of Bivariate NORTA Distributions," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 24(2), pages 295-310, May.
    7. Dimitris Andriosopoulos & Michalis Doumpos & Panos M. Pardalos & Constantin Zopounidis, 2019. "Computational approaches and data analytics in financial services: A literature review," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 70(10), pages 1581-1599, October.
    8. Guangwu Liu, 2015. "Simulating Risk Contributions of Credit Portfolios," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 63(1), pages 104-121, February.
    9. İsmail Başoğlu & Wolfgang Hörmann & Halis Sak, 2018. "Efficient simulations for a Bernoulli mixture model of portfolio credit risk," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 260(1), pages 113-128, January.
    10. Christopher W. Miller & Insoon Yang, 2015. "Optimal Control of Conditional Value-at-Risk in Continuous Time," Papers 1512.05015, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2017.
    11. Branda, Martin, 2013. "Diversification-consistent data envelopment analysis with general deviation measures," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 226(3), pages 626-635.
    12. Barro, Diana & Basso, Antonella, 2010. "Credit contagion in a network of firms with spatial interaction," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 205(2), pages 459-468, September.
    13. Boubaker, Heni & Sghaier, Nadia, 2013. "Portfolio optimization in the presence of dependent financial returns with long memory: A copula based approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 361-377.
    14. Amy Givler Chapman & John E. Mitchell, 2018. "A fair division approach to humanitarian logistics inspired by conditional value-at-risk," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 262(1), pages 133-151, March.
    15. Olivier Aj Bardou & Noufel Frikha & G. Pag`es, 2008. "Computation of VaR and CVaR using stochastic approximations and unconstrained importance sampling," Papers 0812.3381, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2010.
    16. Arismendi, Juan C. & Broda, Simon, 2017. "Multivariate elliptical truncated moments," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 29-44.
    17. Pesenti, Silvana M. & Millossovich, Pietro & Tsanakas, Andreas, 2019. "Reverse sensitivity testing: What does it take to break the model?," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 274(2), pages 654-670.
    18. So Yeon Chun & Miguel A. Lejeune, 2020. "Risk-Based Loan Pricing: Portfolio Optimization Approach with Marginal Risk Contribution," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(8), pages 3735-3753, August.
    19. Katja Schilling & Daniel Bauer & Marcus C. Christiansen & Alexander Kling, 2020. "Decomposing Dynamic Risks into Risk Components," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(12), pages 5738-5756, December.
    20. Mansini, Renata & Ogryczak, Wlodzimierz & Speranza, M. Grazia, 2014. "Twenty years of linear programming based portfolio optimization," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 234(2), pages 518-535.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:281:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1007_s10479-018-2829-8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla) or (Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.