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Cyber risk ordering with rank-based statistical models

Author

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  • Paolo Giudici

    (University of Pavia)

  • Emanuela Raffinetti

    (Università degli Studi di Milano)

Abstract

In a world that is increasingly connected on-line, cyber risks become critical. Cyber risk management is very difficult, as cyber loss data are typically not disclosed. To mitigate the reputational risks associated with their disclosure, loss data may be collected in terms of ordered severity levels. However, to date, there are no risk models for ordinal cyber data. We fill the gap, proposing a rank-based statistical model aimed at predicting the severity levels of cyber risks. The application of our approach to a real-world case shows that the proposed models are, while statistically sound, simple to implement and interpret.

Suggested Citation

  • Paolo Giudici & Emanuela Raffinetti, 2021. "Cyber risk ordering with rank-based statistical models," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 105(3), pages 469-484, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:alstar:v:105:y:2021:i:3:d:10.1007_s10182-020-00387-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s10182-020-00387-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Silvia Facchinetti & Paolo Giudici & Silvia Angela Osmetti, 2020. "Cyber risk measurement with ordinal data," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 29(1), pages 173-185, March.
    2. Cameron A. MacKenzie, 2014. "Summarizing Risk Using Risk Measures and Risk Indices," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(12), pages 2143-2162, December.
    3. Emanuel Kopp & Lincoln Kaffenberger & Christopher Wilson, 2017. "Cyber Risk, Market Failures, and Financial Stability," IMF Working Papers 2017/185, International Monetary Fund.
    4. E. Raffinetti & I. Romeo, 2015. "Dealing with the biased effects issue when handling huge datasets: the case of INVALSI data," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(12), pages 2554-2570, December.
    5. Shin, Jinsoo & Son, Hanseong & Khalil ur, Rahman & Heo, Gyunyoung, 2015. "Development of a cyber security risk model using Bayesian networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 208-217.
    6. Radanliev, Petar & De Roure, David & Nicolescu, Razvan & Huth, Michael & Mantilla Montalvo, Rafael & Cannady, Stacy & Burnap, Peter, 2018. "Future developments in cyber risk assessment for the internet of things," MPRA Paper 92567, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Sep 2018.
    7. Brechmann, Eike & Czado, Claudia & Paterlini, Sandra, 2014. "Flexible dependence modeling of operational risk losses and its impact on total capital requirements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 271-285.
    8. Eisenbach, Thomas M. & Kovner, Anna & Lee, Michael Junho, 2022. "Cyber risk and the U.S. financial system: A pre-mortem analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(3), pages 802-826.
    9. Giudici, P. & Raffinetti, E., 2011. "On the Gini measure decomposition," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 133-139, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Matteo Malavasi & Gareth W. Peters & Pavel V. Shevchenko & Stefan Truck & Jiwook Jang & Georgy Sofronov, 2021. "Cyber Risk Frequency, Severity and Insurance Viability," Papers 2111.03366, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2022.

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