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Future developments in cyber risk assessment for the internet of things

Author

Listed:
  • Radanliev, Petar
  • De Roure, David
  • Nicolescu, Razvan
  • Huth, Michael
  • Mantilla Montalvo, Rafael
  • Cannady, Stacy
  • Burnap, Peter

Abstract

This article is focused on the economic impact assessment of Internet of Things (IoT) and its associated cyber risks vectors and vertices – a reinterpretation of IoT verticals. We adapt to IoT both the Cyber Value at Risk model, a well-established model for measuring the maximum possible loss over a given time period, and the MicroMort model, a widely used model for predicting uncertainty through units of mortality risk. The resulting new IoT MicroMort for calculating IoT risk is tested and validated with real data from the BullGuard's IoT Scanner (over 310,000 scans) and the Garner report on IoT connected devices. Two calculations are developed, the current state of IoT cyber risk and the future forecasts of IoT cyber risk. Our work therefore advances the efforts of integrating cyber risk impact assessments and offer a better understanding of economic impact assessment for IoT cyber risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Radanliev, Petar & De Roure, David & Nicolescu, Razvan & Huth, Michael & Mantilla Montalvo, Rafael & Cannady, Stacy & Burnap, Peter, 2018. "Future developments in cyber risk assessment for the internet of things," MPRA Paper 92567, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Sep 2018.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:92567
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Radanliev, Petar & De Roure, Dave & R.C. Nurse, Jason & Nicolescu, Razvan & Huth, Michael & Cannady, Stacy & Mantilla Montalvo, Rafael, 2019. "Cyber Security Framework for the Internet-of-Things in Industry 4.0," MPRA Paper 92565, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2019.
    2. Radanliev, Petar & De Roure, Dave & Cannady, Stacy & Mantilla Montalvo, Rafael & Nicolescu, Razvan & Huth, Michael, 2018. "Analysing IoT cyber risk for estimating IoT cyber insurance," EconStor Conference Papers 193692, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    3. Radanliev, Petar, 2016. "Supply Chain Systems Architecture and Engineering Design: Green-field Supply Chain Integration," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 22-30.
    4. Radanliev, Petar & De Roure, David & R.C. Nurse, Jason & Burnap, Pete & Anthi, Eirini & Ani, Uchenna & Maddox, La’Treall & Santos, Omar & Mantilla Montalvo, Rafael, 2019. "Definition of Internet of Things (IoT) Cyber Risk – Discussion on a Transformation Roadmap for Standardization of Regulations, Risk Maturity, Strategy Design and Impact Assessment," MPRA Paper 92569, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Radanliev, Petar, 2015. "Engineering Design Methodology for Green-Field Supply Chain Architectures Taxonomic Scheme," Journal of Operations and Supply Chain Management (JOSCM), Fundação Getulio Vargas, Escola de Administração de Empresas de São Paulo (FGV EAESP), vol. 8(2), December.
    6. Radanliev, Petar, 2015. "Architectures for Green-Field Supply Chain Integration: Supply Chain Integration Design," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 13(2), pages 56-78.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Turlough Guerin, 2022. "Questions that board directors should be asking about emerging governance issues and risk: a practitioner’s view and implications for the extractive industries," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 35(2), pages 221-237, June.
    2. Petar Radanliev & David Roure & Pete Burnap & Omar Santos, 2021. "Epistemological Equation for Analysing Uncontrollable States in Complex Systems: Quantifying Cyber Risks from the Internet of Things," The Review of Socionetwork Strategies, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 381-411, November.
    3. Yin-Yee Leong & Yen-Chih Chen, 2020. "Cyber risk cost and management in IoT devices-linked health insurance," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 45(4), pages 737-759, October.
    4. Paolo Giudici & Emanuela Raffinetti, 2021. "Cyber risk ordering with rank-based statistical models," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 105(3), pages 469-484, September.
    5. Niloofar Etemadi & Pieter Van Gelder & Fernanda Strozzi, 2021. "An ISM Modeling of Barriers for Blockchain/Distributed Ledger Technology Adoption in Supply Chains towards Cybersecurity," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-28, April.
    6. Ricardo S. Alonso & Inés Sittón-Candanedo & Roberto Casado-Vara & Javier Prieto & Juan M. Corchado, 2020. "Deep Reinforcement Learning for the Management of Software-Defined Networks and Network Function Virtualization in an Edge-IoT Architecture," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-23, July.
    7. Radanliev, Petar & De Roure, Dave & Cannady, Stacy & Mantilla Montalvo, Rafael & Nicolescu, Razvan & Huth, Michael, 2018. "Analysing IoT cyber risk for estimating IoT cyber insurance," EconStor Conference Papers 193692, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    8. Petar Radanliev & David Roure & Max Kleek & Uchenna Ani & Pete Burnap & Eirini Anthi & Jason R. C. Nurse & Omar Santos & Rafael Mantilla Montalvo & La’Treall Maddox, 2021. "Dynamic real-time risk analytics of uncontrollable states in complex internet of things systems: cyber risk at the edge," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 236-247, June.
    9. Alptekin Ulutaş & Ieva Meidute-Kavaliauskiene & Ayse Topal & Ezgi Demir, 2021. "Assessment of Collaboration-Based and Non-Collaboration-Based Logistics Risks with Plithogenic SWARA Method," Logistics, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-14, November.
    10. Radanliev, Petar & De Roure, Dave & R.C. Nurse, Jason & Nicolescu, Razvan & Huth, Michael & Cannady, Stacy & Mantilla Montalvo, Rafael, 2019. "Cyber Security Framework for the Internet-of-Things in Industry 4.0," MPRA Paper 92565, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2019.
    11. Yin-Yee Leong & Yen-Chih Chen, 0. "Cyber risk cost and management in IoT devices-linked health insurance," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 0, pages 1-23.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    IoT cyber risk IoT risk analysis IoT cyber insurance IoT MicroMort Cyber value-at-risk;

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General
    • O3 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights
    • O30 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - General
    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
    • O32 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Management of Technological Innovation and R&D
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • O35 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Social Innovation
    • O38 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Government Policy
    • O39 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Other

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