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Improving Models of Income Dynamics using Cross-Section-Information

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  • Robert Aebi
  • Klaus Neusser
  • Peter Steiner

Abstract

Based on a relative entropy approach, this paper proposes a method to estimate or update transition matrices using just cross-sectional observations at two points in time. The method is then applied to explain the development of the US income distribution. Starting from three hypothesized transition matrices and a transition matrix estimated from the PSID data, we show how these matrices must be adjusted in the light of the cross-sectional information. Finally, we explore the consequences of these updated transition matrices for the future development of the US income distribution.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Aebi & Klaus Neusser & Peter Steiner, 2008. "Improving Models of Income Dynamics using Cross-Section-Information," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 144(II), pages 117-151, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ses:arsjes:2008-ii-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Burkhauser, Richard V. & Amy Crews Cutts & Mary C. Daly & Stephen P. Jenkins, 1999. "Testing the Significance of Income Distribution Changes over the 1980s Business Cycle: A Cross-National Comparison," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(3), pages 253-272, May-June.
    2. Aebi, Robert & Neusser, Klaus & Steiner, Peter, 1999. "Evaluating Theories of the Income Dynamics: A Probabilistic Approach," Economics Series 61, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    3. Adelman, Irma & Morley, Samuel & Schenzler, Christoph & Warning, Matthew, 1994. "Estimating income mobility from census data," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 187-213, April.
    4. Robert Aebi & Klaus Neusser & Peter Steiner, 2006. "A Large Deviation Approach to the Measurement of Mobility," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 142(II), pages 195-222, June.
    5. Golan, Amos & Judge, George G. & Miller, Douglas, 1996. "Maximum Entropy Econometrics," Staff General Research Papers Archive 1488, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    6. White,Halbert, 1996. "Estimation, Inference and Specification Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521574464, Enero-Abr.
    7. Tauchen, George, 1986. "Finite state markov-chain approximations to univariate and vector autoregressions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 177-181.
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    Cited by:

    1. Erik Figueiredo & Flávio Ziegelmann, 2010. "The dynamics of the Brazilian income," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(2), pages 1249-1260.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

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