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Импортозамещение В России: Направления И Устойчивость // The Import Substitution In Russia: Trends And Sustainability

Author

Listed:
  • P. Biryukov A.

    (Higher School of Economics)

  • П. Бирюков А.

    (НИУ Высшая школа экономики)

Abstract

The paper describes the regularities of the economic growth in the Russian Federation in 1998-2014 in terms of the “wages - productivity” gap. The scientific basis for the research into this structural imbalance includes findings of leading international financial institutions engaged in the study of the quality of the economic growth in mineral exporting countries. Based on this assessment two hypothetical trends of the Russian economic development after 2014 are formulated: beneficial and temporary import substitution. The main difference between the trends is the ability of tradable sectors to satisfy the temporarily reduced internal demand by replacing now much more expensive imports with high-quality substitutes. The index of non-mineral exports to far-abroad foreign countries was chosen as the quality criterion for domestically manufactured products. For quantitative assessments, the data of the Russian Statistics Service for 2013-2015 was used classified by the structure of the import substitution in the commodity markets, the dynamics of imports broken down by product groups and investments in these areas. The study showed the emerging prerequisites for the Russian economy movement towards favorable economic development. At the same time the paper considers the risks of failure to achieve a favorable outcome if the policy of the unbalanced growth of incomes through the resource rent rather than the productivity growth in the tradable non-mineral sectors continues. В статье рассмотрены закономерности экономического роста РФ в 1998-2014 гг. через призму разрыва «заработная плата - производительность». В качестве научной базы данного структурного дисбаланса использованы работы ведущих международных финансовых организаций, занимающихся изучением качества экономического роста в странах - экспортерах сырья. На основе этой оценки сформулированы две гипотетические траектории развития экономики России после 2014 г.: благоприятное и временное импортозамещение. Главным отличием траекторий является возможность торгуемых секторов обеспечить временно сниженный внутренний спрос качественной заменой подорожавшего импорта. Критерием качества производимой внутри страны продукции выбран показатель экспорта несырьевых товаров в страны дальнего зарубежья. Для количественных оценок были использованы данные Росстата за 2013-2015 гг. по структуре импортозамещения на товарных рынках, динамике импорта в разбивке по товарным группам и инвестиции в данные направления. Исследование показало наличие формирующихся предпосылок для выхода экономики РФ на благоприятную траекторию экономического развития. Вместе с этим в статье рассматриваются сохраняющиеся риски недостижения благоприятного исхода при продолжении политики несбалансированного роста доходов за счет сырьевой ренты, а не роста производительности в торгуемых несырьевых секторах.

Suggested Citation

  • P. Biryukov A. & П. Бирюков А., 2016. "Импортозамещение В России: Направления И Устойчивость // The Import Substitution In Russia: Trends And Sustainability," Финансы: теория и практика/Finance: Theory and Practice // Finance: Theory and Practice, ФГОБУВО Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации // Financial University under The Government of Russian Federation, vol. 20(5), pages 45-57.
  • Handle: RePEc:scn:financ:y:2016:i:5:p:45-57
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cuddington, John, 1989. "Commodity Export Booms in Developing Countries," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 4(2), pages 143-165, July.
    2. A. Kaukin & P. Pavlov, 2016. "Import Substitution In Russia’S Manufacturing Industry: A Weak Effect," Russian Economic Development, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 3, pages 58-61, March.
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