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Correcting the population of Brazilian municipalities using the Jackknife

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  • Mattos, Enlinson
  • Santos, Pedro

Abstract

Este trabalho propõe um método para identificar e corrigir a distorção observada na distribuição de população dos municípios brasileiros presente nos dados de Censo Demográfico (Monasterio, 2014). Essa distorção se caracteriza por uma concentração elevada de municípios com valores de população próximos das faixas usadas como critério de distribuição de fundos para os municípios do Brasil (Fundo de Participação de Municípios, FPM). O método proposto utiliza dois passos. Primeiro, busca identificar os municípios candidatos a ajuste, através de um método Jackknife, e segundo, sugere uma correção para sua população de acordo com um modelo linear que segue a Lei de Zipf de distribuição de população de cidades (ZIPF, 1949). Após a detecção e correção da população daqueles municípios, apresentamos o teste de McCrary (2007) o qual não aponta mais descontinuidades significativas na distribuição da população dos municípios para os anos de 2000, 2007 e 2010 sugerindo o sucesso do procedimento. Mais importante, não é encontrada alteração significativa na distribuição do FPM após esta correção.

Suggested Citation

  • Mattos, Enlinson & Santos, Pedro, 2018. "Correcting the population of Brazilian municipalities using the Jackknife," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 38(1), May.
  • Handle: RePEc:sbe:breart:v:38:y:2018:i:1:a:56157
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    7. McCrary, Justin, 2008. "Manipulation of the running variable in the regression discontinuity design: A density test," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 698-714, February.
    8. Stephan Litschig & Kevin M. Morrison, 2013. "The Impact of Intergovernmental Transfers on Education Outcomes and Poverty Reduction," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(4), pages 206-240, October.
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