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Self-exciting effects of house prices on unit prices in Australian capital cities

Author

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  • Abbas Valadkhani

    (Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Swinburne University of Technology, Australia)

  • Russell Smyth

    (Department of Economics, Monash University, Australia)

Abstract

This paper examines the long- and short-run relationship between Australian house and unit prices across all capital cities over the period December 1995 to June 2015. We find that house and unit prices are cointegrated and, based on the results of Granger causality and generalised impulse responses, that house prices significantly influence unit prices across all cities. However, bi-directional causality (responses) exists only for major capital cities with the exception of Brisbane. We also, for the first time, apply self-excited threshold models to explore the complex interplay between house and unit prices in Australia. We find that when the market for units is self-excited, or bullish, the positive effects of house prices on unit prices are noticeably larger than otherwise. There is a varying degree of herd mentality in the Australian property market with Sydney and Darwin being the most and least ‘excitable’ capital cities, respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Abbas Valadkhani & Russell Smyth, 2017. "Self-exciting effects of house prices on unit prices in Australian capital cities," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 54(10), pages 2376-2394, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:urbstu:v:54:y:2017:i:10:p:2376-2394
    DOI: 10.1177/0042098016643476
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. G.C. Lim & Sarantis Tsiaplias, 2018. "Interest Rates, Local Housing Markets and House Price Over†reactions," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 94(S1), pages 33-48, June.
    2. Moradi-Motlagh, Amir & Jubb, Christine, 2020. "Examining irresponsible lending using non-radial inefficiency measures: Evidence from Australian banks," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 96-108.
    3. JingJing (Justine) Wang & John S. Croucher, 2021. "Information linkages among National, NSW, VIC, and QLD real estate markets in Australia," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(2), pages 3207-3234, June.
    4. IKM Mokhtarul Wadud & Omar H. M. N. Bashar & Huson Joher Ali Ahmed & William Dimovski, 2022. "Property price dynamics and asymmetric effects of economic policy uncertainty: New evidence from the Australian capital cities," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 62(4), pages 4359-4380, December.
    5. Jian Liang & Kang Mo Koo & Chyi Lin Lee, 2021. "Transportation infrastructure improvement and real estate value: impact of level crossing removal project on housing prices," Transportation, Springer, vol. 48(6), pages 2969-3011, December.

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