IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/soueco/v20y2019i1p19-45.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Is Bangladesh’s Economy Approaching the Lewis Turning Point?

Author

Listed:
  • Subir Bairagi
  • Muntaseer Kamal

Abstract

During the last decade, Bangladesh economy grew consistently over 6 per cent annually; however, growth rate in the agriculture sector declined. Labour away from agriculture is evident; it is also evident real wages in the agriculture sector are rising. This could be an indication that Bangladesh is moving to a different stage of economic development. This article investigates whether Bangladesh is approaching a stage of economic development where marginal productivity of labour equals its price, called the Lewis turning point (LTP). We find that the reallocation of labour away from agriculture has had a positive but insignificant impact on economic growth in Bangladesh. We also find that the surplus agricultural labour has not fully been absorbed by the economy. Therefore, we conclude Bangladesh has yet to reach the LTP and suggest initiating policies (e.g., job creation in the service sector) that might speed up the country’s movement to the LTP. JEL: O11, O17, O41, O53

Suggested Citation

  • Subir Bairagi & Muntaseer Kamal, 2019. "Is Bangladesh’s Economy Approaching the Lewis Turning Point?," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 20(1), pages 19-45, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:soueco:v:20:y:2019:i:1:p:19-45
    DOI: 10.1177/1391561418822208
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1391561418822208
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/1391561418822208?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gustav Ranis, 2012. "Labor Surplus Revisited," Working Papers 1016, Economic Growth Center, Yale University.
    2. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    3. World Bank, 2017. "World Development Indicators 2017," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 26447, July.
    4. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2006. "What Determines Migration Flows From Low-Income To High-Income Countries? An Empirical Investigation Of Fiji-U.S. Migration 1972-2001," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 24(2), pages 332-342, April.
    5. Hall, Robert E, 1988. "The Relation between Price and Marginal Cost in U.S. Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 921-947, October.
    6. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    7. Banerjee, Anindya & Dolado, Juan J. & Galbraith, John W. & Hendry, David, 1993. "Co-integration, Error Correction, and the Econometric Analysis of Non-Stationary Data," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288107.
    8. Deqiang Liu, 2015. "Has the Chinese economy passed the Lewis turning point?," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 404-422, July.
    9. Ranis, Gustav, 2012. "Labor Surplus Revisited," Center Discussion Papers 133411, Yale University, Economic Growth Center.
    10. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(17), pages 1979-1990.
    11. Kwan, Fung & Wu, Yanrui & Zhuo, Shuaihe, 2018. "Surplus agricultural labour and China's Lewis turning point," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 244-257.
    12. Zhang, Xiaobo & Rashid, Shahidur & Ahmad, Kaikaus & Ahmed, Akhter, 2014. "Escalation of Real Wages in Bangladesh: Is it the Beginning of Structural Transformation?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 273-285.
    13. Ranis, Gustav, 2012. "Labor Surplus Revisited," Working Papers 107, Yale University, Department of Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Loi, Tian Sheng Allan & Loo, Soh Leng, 2016. "The impact of Singapore’s residential electricity conservation efforts and the way forward. Insights from the bounds testing approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 735-743.
    2. Halil Altýntas & Melike Kum, 2013. "Multivariate Granger Causality between Electricity Generation, Exports, Prices and Economic Growth in Turkey," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 3(Special), pages 41-51.
    3. Tuck Cheong Tang, 2008. "Money demand function for Southeast Asian countries," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 34(6), pages 476-496, January.
    4. Yaya Keho, 2011. "Long‐Run Determinants Of Savings Rates In Waemu Countries: An Empirical Assessment From Ardl Bounds Testing Approach," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 79(3), pages 312-329, September.
    5. Ibrar Hussain & Zahoor Khan & Muhmmad Rafiq, 2017. "Compositional Changes in Public Expenditure and Economic Growth: Time Series Evidence from Pakistan," Business & Economic Review, Institute of Management Sciences, Peshawar, Pakistan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-20, March.
    6. Ang, James B., 2007. "CO2 emissions, energy consumption, and output in France," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 4772-4778, October.
    7. Fahad Israr & Miguel Rocha de Sousa, 2018. "Long run analysis of trade openness on economic growth for Pakistan; Evidence from standard and optimal time series tests," CEFAGE-UE Working Papers 2018_01, University of Evora, CEFAGE-UE (Portugal).
    8. Tuck Cheong Tang, 2007. "Money demand function for Southeast Asian countries: An empirical view from expenditure components," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 34(6), pages 476-496, November.
    9. Md. Samsul Alam & Syed Ali Raza & Muhammad Shahbaz & Qaisar Abbas, 2016. "Accounting for Contribution of Trade Openness and Foreign Direct Investment in Life Expectancy: The Long-Run and Short-Run Analysis in Pakistan," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 129(3), pages 1155-1170, December.
    10. Tang, Chor Foon & Tan, Eu Chye, 2013. "Exploring the nexus of electricity consumption, economic growth, energy prices and technology innovation in Malaysia," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 297-305.
    11. Buhari Doğan, 2016. "The Effects of Globalization on Employment: Bounds Test Approach in Turkey Sample," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 6(10), pages 620-633, October.
    12. Muhammad Shafiullah & Ravinthirakumaran Navaratnam, 2016. "Do Bangladesh and Sri Lanka Enjoy Export-Led Growth? A Comparison of Two Small South Asian Economies," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 17(1), pages 114-132, March.
    13. Andrés, Antonio R. & Halicioglu, Ferda, 2010. "Determinants of suicides in Denmark: Evidence from time series data," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(2-3), pages 263-269, December.
    14. Ulrich Witt & Christian Gross, 2020. "The rise of the “service economy” in the second half of the twentieth century and its energetic contingencies," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 231-246, April.
    15. Ketenci, Natalya, 2009. "The ARDL Approach to Cointegration Analysis of Tourism Demand in Turkey: with Greece as the substitution destination," MPRA Paper 86602, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Kanjilal, Kakali & Ghosh, Sajal, 2013. "Environmental Kuznet’s curve for India: Evidence from tests for cointegration with unknown structuralbreaks," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 509-515.
    17. Caner Demir, 2019. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Stock Market Fluctuations: The Case of BIST-100," Economies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 7(1), pages 1-14, February.
    18. Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2013. "Linkages between inflation, economic growth and terrorism in Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 496-506.
    19. Sahoo, Manoranjan & Babu, M. Suresh & Dash, Umakant, 2016. "Long run sustainability of current account balance of China and India: New evidence from combined cointegration test," MPRA Paper 79013, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2016.
    20. Jose Perez-Montiel & Carles Manera Erbina, 2019. "Investment Sustained by Consumption: A Linear and Nonlinear Time Series Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 11(16), pages 1-15, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bangladesh; economic growth; labour productivity; Lewis turning point (LTP); production function; wages;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:soueco:v:20:y:2019:i:1:p:19-45. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: http://www.ips.lk/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.ips.lk/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.