IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/smppub/v7y2018i2p260-282.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

On the Relationship between the Nominal Exchange Rate and Export Demand in India

Author

Listed:
  • Ranajoy Bhattacharyya
  • Bipradas Rit

Abstract

This article attempts to determine the effect of nominal exchange rates on Indian exports between 1996 and 2014. We begin by assuming that the nominal exchange rate can affect export directly as well as indirectly via its pass through on domestic prices. The analysis is conducted with quarterly data after controlling for the effect of exchange rate volatility on exports. The main results that we get are the following: There is no direct evidence that the nominal exchange rate or its volatility influences exports. However, there is a significant relationship between the relative price ratio (domestic to foreign) and export. Further, we find strong evidence of pass through of the nominal exchange rate on prices (about 54%) in the long run. We interpret this result as an evidence of the nominal exchange rate affecting exports indirectly through domestic prices. The results suggest that the debate on the influence of exchange rates on Indian export is still an open one. JEL Classification: F14, E31, G15

Suggested Citation

  • Ranajoy Bhattacharyya & Bipradas Rit, 2018. "On the Relationship between the Nominal Exchange Rate and Export Demand in India," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 7(2), pages 260-282, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:smppub:v:7:y:2018:i:2:p:260-282
    DOI: 10.1177/2277978718795777
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/2277978718795777
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/2277978718795777?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Osama D. Sweidan, 2013. "The Effect of Exchange Rate on Exports and Imports: The Case of Jordan," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(2), pages 156-172, June.
    2. Ansgar Belke & Thorsten Polleit, 2009. "Monetary Economics in Globalised Financial Markets," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-540-71003-5, November.
    3. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1994. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(4), pages 631-653.
    4. Arize, Augustine C & Osang, Thomas & Slottje, Daniel J, 2000. "Exchange-Rate Volatility and Foreign Trade: Evidence from Thirteen LDC's," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(1), pages 10-17, January.
    5. Stilianos Fountas & Donal Bredin, 1998. "Exchange rate volatility and exports: the case of Ireland," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(5), pages 301-304.
    6. Eichengreen, Barry & Gupta, Poonam, 2012. "The Real Exchange Rate and Export Growth: Are Services Different?," Working Papers 12/112, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    7. Chowdhury, Abdur R, 1993. "Does Exchange Rate Volatility Depress Trade Flows? Evidence from Error-Correction Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(4), pages 700-706, November.
    8. Washington, Andrew A. & Kilmer, Richard L., 2002. "The Production Theory Approach To Import Demand Analysis: A Comparison Of The Rotterdam Model And The Differential Production Approach," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 34(3), pages 1-3, December.
    9. Poonyth, Daneswar & van Zyl, Johan, 2000. "The impact of real exchange rate changes on South African agricultural exports: An error correction model approach," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 39(4), pages 1-13, December.
    10. Koi Nyen Wong & Tuck Cheong Tang, 2009. "Exchange rate variability and the export demand for Malaysia's semiconductors: an empirical study," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(6), pages 695-706.
    11. Amit Ghosh & Ramkishen S. Rajan, 2007. "How high is exchange rate pass-through in India? Has it changed over time?," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 373-382.
    12. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Sengupta, Rajeswari, 2013. "Impact of exchange rate movements on exports: An analysis of Indian non-financial sector firms," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 231-245.
    13. Kenen, Peter B & Rodrik, Dani, 1986. "Measuring and Analyzing the Effects of Short-term Volatility in Real Exchange Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(2), pages 311-315, May.
    14. Kamran Dadkhah, 2009. "The Evolution of Macroeconomic Theory and Policy," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-540-77008-4, November.
    15. W. Erwin Diewert, 1986. "Export Supply and Import Demand Functions: A Production Theory Approach," NBER Working Papers 2011, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. repec:zbw:bofitp:2013_010 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. WenShwo Fang & Stephen Miller, 2007. "Exchange rate depreciation and exports: the case of Singapore revisited," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(3), pages 273-277.
    18. Xufei Zhang & Xiaoxuan Liu, 2012. "How Responsive are Chinese Exports to Exchange Rate Changes? Evidence from Firm-level Data," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(10), pages 1489-1504, October.
    19. Ranajoy Bhattacharyya & Jaydeep Mukherjee, 2014. "Do Exchange Rates Affect Exports in India?," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 3(2), pages 175-193, December.
    20. Yoshihisa Baba & David F. Hendry & Ross M. Starr, 1992. "The Demand for M1 in the U.S.A., 1960–1988," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 59(1), pages 25-61.
    21. Khundrakpam, Jeevan Kumar, 2008. "Have Economic Reforms Affected Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Prices in India?," MPRA Paper 51658, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2008.
    22. Koray, Faik & Lastrapes, William D, 1989. "Real Exchange Rate Volatility and U.S. Bilateral Trade: A VAR Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(4), pages 708-712, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jyoti, 2021. "Impact of Exchange Rate Fluctuations on India’s Manufacturing Exports: An Empirical Investigation on Long-Run Relation," Journal of Asian Economic Integration, , vol. 3(1), pages 61-73, April.
    2. Biswajit Maitra, 2020. "Exploring Import-led Growth in India: Evidence from the Post-reform Period," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 9(1), pages 87-113, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yuan, Yan & Awokuse, Titus O., 2003. "Exchange Rate Volatility And U.S. Poultry Exports: Evidence From Panel Data," 2003 Annual meeting, July 27-30, Montreal, Canada 22083, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    2. Augustine Arize & John Malindretos & Krishna Kasibhatla, 2003. "Does exchange-rate volatility depress export flows: The case of LDCs," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 9(1), pages 7-19, February.
    3. Jan M. Podivinsky & Chongcheul Cheong & Maozu Lu, 2004. "The Effect of Exchange Rate Uncertainty on US Imports from the UK: Consistent OLS Estimation with Volatility Measured by An ARCH-type Model," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 212, Econometric Society.
    4. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Hanafiah Harvey, 2021. "Are the effects of exchange‐rate volatility on commodity trade between the U.S. and Mexico symmetric or asymmetric?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 2998-3027, April.
    5. Bajo-Rubio, Oscar & Berke, Burcu & McMillan, David G., 2020. "Exchange rate volatility in the eurozone," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 14, pages 1-23.
    6. Choudhry, Taufiq, 2005. "Exchange rate volatility and the United States exports: evidence from Canada and Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 51-71, March.
    7. Chien-Chung Nieh, 2002. "The effect of the Asian financial crisis on the relationships among open macroeconomic factors for Asian countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(4), pages 491-502.
    8. Juan Pi??eiro Chousa, & Artur Tamazian, & Davit N. Melikyan,, 2008. "MARKET RISK DYNAMICS AND COMPETITIVENESS AFTER THE EURO: Evidence from EMU Members," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp916, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    9. Fang, WenShwo & Lai, YiHao & Miller, Stephen M., 2009. "Does exchange rate risk affect exports asymmetrically? Asian evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 215-239, March.
    10. Bilal KARGI, 2014. "Time Series Analysis about the Relationship between Foreign Trade and Exchange Rate in Turkish Economy," Timisoara Journal of Economics and Business, West University of Timisoara, Romania, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 7(2), pages 123-133, December.
    11. Cueyt SEVIM & Taylan Taner DOGAN, 2016. "Turkiye Ekonomisinde Ihracat ve Doviz Kuru Oynakligi Iliskisi," Ege Academic Review, Ege University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 16(2), pages 303-318.
    12. Erdal Demirhan & Banu Demirhan, 2015. "The Dynamic Effect of ExchangeRate Volatility on Turkish Exports: Parsimonious Error-Correction Model Approach," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 62(4), pages 429-451, September.
    13. E. M. Ekanayake & Ranjini L. Thaver & Daniel Plante, 2012. "The Effects Of Exchange Rate Volatility On South Africa’S Trade With The European Union," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 6(3), pages 13-26.
    14. Carlos Moslares & E. M. Ekanayake, 2015. "The Impact Of Exchange Rate Volatility On Commodity Trade Between The United States And Spain," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 9(4), pages 37-49.
    15. Rodolfo Cermeño & Bjamin S. Jensen & Huver Rivera, 2010. "Trade Flows and Volatility of Their Fundamentals: Some Evidence from Mexico," Working papers DTE 496, CIDE, División de Economía.
    16. Arize, Augustine C. & Osang, Thomas & Slottje, Daniel J., 2008. "Exchange-rate volatility in Latin America and its impact on foreign trade," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 33-44.
    17. Koi Nyen Wong & Tuck Cheong Tang, 2009. "Exchange rate variability and the export demand for Malaysia's semiconductors: an empirical study," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(6), pages 695-706.
    18. Daly, Kevin, 1998. "Does exchange rate volatility impede the volume of Japan's bilateral trade?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 333-348, July.
    19. Murat Doğanlar, 2002. "Estimating the impact of exchange rate volatility on exports: evidence from Asian countries," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(13), pages 859-863.
    20. Chou, W. L., 2000. "Exchange Rate Variability and China's Exports," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 61-79, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Export; nominal exchange rate; consumer price index; exchange rate pass through;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:smppub:v:7:y:2018:i:2:p:260-282. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.