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Does Experience Matter?

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  • Philip B. K. Potter

    (Department of Political Science University of California, Los Angeles)

Abstract

This article demonstrates that the probability of an international crisis involving the United States declines as a presidential administration gains time in office. This finding invalidates three widely held theories about the relationship between the American democratic cycle and foreign policy that (1) there might be a honeymoon period immediately following election in which new presidents are unlikely to become involved in foreign crises, (2) presidents might systematically use the ``rally round the flag'' effect to bolster their electoral prospects, or that more generally, (3) foreign policy might be primarily tied to the democratic constraints of the electoral cycle. This finding also stands in partial contrast to recent work suggesting that, globally, leadership experience does not influence the likelihood of a militarized interstate dispute, while leader age does. The differing conclusions are the result of both the unique American case and the differing formulations of conflict.

Suggested Citation

  • Philip B. K. Potter, 2007. "Does Experience Matter?," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 51(3), pages 351-378, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:51:y:2007:i:3:p:351-378
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002707300179
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Cali Mortenson Ellis & Michael C. Horowitz & Allan C. Stam, 2015. "Introducing the LEAD Data Set," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(4), pages 718-741, August.
    2. Michael C. Horowitz & Matthew Fuhrmann, 2018. "Studying Leaders and Military Conflict," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 62(10), pages 2072-2086, November.
    3. Matthew DiLorenzo & Becca McBride & James Lee Ray, 2019. "Presidential political ambition and US foreign conflict behavior, 1816–2010," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 36(2), pages 111-130, March.
    4. Francesco Caselli & Massimo Morelli & Dominic Rohner, 2015. "The Geography of Interstate Resource Wars," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 130(1), pages 267-315.
    5. Bradley C. Smith & William Spaniel, 2019. "Militarized Disputes, Uncertainty, and Leader Tenure," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 63(5), pages 1222-1252, May.
    6. Andrew Bertoli & Allan Dafoe & Robert F. Trager, 2019. "Is There a War Party? Party Change, the Left–Right Divide, and International Conflict," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 63(4), pages 950-975, April.
    7. Jacob Ausderan, 2015. "Following an Experienced Shepherd: How a Leader’s Tenure Affects the Outcome of International Crises," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(1), pages 26-45, January.
    8. Daehee Bak, 2020. "Autocratic political cycle and international conflict," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 37(3), pages 259-279, May.
    9. Raul Magni Berton & Sophie Panel, 2017. "Strategic gerontocracy: why nondemocratic systems produce older leaders," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 171(3), pages 409-427, June.

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