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Union Success in Representation Elections: Why Does Unit Size Matter?

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  • Henrys Farber

Abstract

The author documents four facts regarding NLRB-supervised representation election activity over the period 1952–98: (1) election activity fell sharply and discontinuously beginning in the mid-1970s, after a two-decade rise; (2) unions' election win rate declined less sharply, though continuously, over the entire period; (3) a “size gap†characterized unions' win rates throughout the period, with a lower win rate in larger units; and (4) the size gap widened substantially after 1952. A simple optimizing model of the union decision to hold a representation election can explain (1)–(3). The author describes two possible explanations for (4), one based on differing behavior by employers in different size classes, and one purely probabilistic. Results of empirical tests using NLRB election data for 1952–98 suggest that the optimizing model of the union decision to hold an election combined with the purely probabilistic explanation can largely account for the observed patterns.

Suggested Citation

  • Henrys Farber, 2001. "Union Success in Representation Elections: Why Does Unit Size Matter?," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 54(2), pages 329-348, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:ilrrev:v:54:y:2001:i:2:p:329-348
    DOI: 10.1177/001979390105400208
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. William T. Dickens & Jonathan S. Leonard, 1985. "Accounting for the Decline in Union Membership, 1950–1980," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 38(3), pages 323-334, April.
    2. David Card & Richard B. Freeman, 1993. "Small Differences That Matter: Labor Markets and Income Maintenance in Canada and the United States," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number card93-1, March.
    3. Farber, Henry S, 1990. "The Decline of Unionization in the United States: What Can Be Learned from Recent Experience," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 8(1), pages 75-105, January.
    4. Freeman, Richard B, 1988. "Contraction and Expansion: The Divergence of Private Sector and Public Sector Unionism in the United States," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 63-88, Spring.
    5. Card, David & Freeman, Richard B. (ed.), 1993. "Small Differences That Matter," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226092836, Febrero.
    6. William T. Dickens, 1983. "The Effect of Company Campaigns on Certification Elections: Law and Reality Once Again," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 36(4), pages 560-575, July.
    7. Henry S. Farber & Bruce Western, 2000. "Round Up The Usual Suspects: The Decline of Unions in The Private Sector, 1973-1998," Working Papers 816, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    8. Henry S. Farber & Bruce Western, 2000. "Round Up The Usual Suspects: The Decline of Unions in The Private Sector, 1973-1998," Working Papers 816, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
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    Cited by:

    1. John Godard, 2011. "Uncertainty and the Correlates of Union Voting Propensity: An Organizing Perspective," Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(3), pages 472-496, July.

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