IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/envirb/v48y2021i5p1058-1074.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modeling regional impacts and resilience to water service disruptions in urban economies

Author

Listed:
  • Sheree A Pagsuyoin

    (14710University of Massachusetts Lowell, Lowell, MA, USA)

  • Joost R Santos

Abstract

Water is a critical natural resource that sustains the productivity of many economic sectors, whether directly or indirectly. Climate change alongside rapid growth and development are a threat to water sustainability and regional productivity. In this paper, we develop an extension to the economic input-output model to assess the impact of water supply disruptions to regional economies. The model utilizes the inoperability variable, which measures the extent to which an infrastructure system or economic sector is unable to deliver its intended output. While the inoperability concept has been utilized in previous applications, this paper offers extensions that capture the time-varying nature of inoperability as the sectors recover from a disruptive event, such as drought. The model extension is capable of inserting inoperability adjustments within the drought timeline to capture time-varying likelihoods and severities, as well as the dependencies of various economic sectors on water. The model was applied to case studies of severe drought in two regions: (1) the state of Massachusetts (MA) and (2) the US National Capital Region (NCR). These regions were selected to contrast drought resilience between a mixed urban–rural region (MA) and a highly urban region (NCR). These regions also have comparable overall gross domestic products despite significant differences in the distribution and share of the economic sectors comprising each region. The results of the case studies indicate that in both regions, the utility and real estate sectors suffer the largest economic loss; nonetheless, results also identify region-specific sectors that incur significant losses. For the NCR, three sectors in the top 10 ranking of highest economic losses are government-related, whereas in the MA, four sectors in the top 10 are manufacturing sectors. Furthermore, the accommodation sector has also been included in the NCR case intuitively because of the high concentration of museums and famous landmarks. In contrast, the Wholesale Trade sector was among the sectors with the highest economic losses in the MA case study because of its large geographic size conducive for warehouses used as nodes for large-scale supply chain networks. Future modeling extensions could potentially include analysis of water demand and supply management strategies that can enhance regional resilience against droughts. Other regional case studies can also be pursued in future efforts to analyze various categories of drought severity beyond the case studies featured in this paper.

Suggested Citation

  • Sheree A Pagsuyoin & Joost R Santos, 2021. "Modeling regional impacts and resilience to water service disruptions in urban economies," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 48(5), pages 1058-1074, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:envirb:v:48:y:2021:i:5:p:1058-1074
    DOI: 10.1177/2399808321998703
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/2399808321998703
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/2399808321998703?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. François Molle, 2009. "Cities vs. Agriculture," Post-Print hal-03061693, HAL.
    2. Willa Paterson & Richard Rushforth & Benjamin L. Ruddell & Megan Konar & Ikechukwu C. Ahams & Jorge Gironás & Ana Mijic & Alfonso Mejia, 2015. "Water Footprint of Cities: A Review and Suggestions for Future Research," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(7), pages 1-30, June.
    3. Sheree Pagsuyoin & Joost Santos & Gustavo Salcedo & Christian Yip, 2019. "Spatio-Temporal Drought Risk Analysis Using GIS-Based Input Output Modeling," Advances in Spatial Science, in: Yasuhide Okuyama & Adam Rose (ed.), Advances in Spatial and Economic Modeling of Disaster Impacts, chapter 0, pages 375-397, Springer.
    4. Velazquez, Esther, 2006. "An input-output model of water consumption: Analysing intersectoral water relationships in Andalusia," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 226-240, February.
    5. Frank Ward & Manuel Pulido-Velazquez, 2012. "Economic Costs of Sustaining Water Supplies: Findings from the Rio Grande," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(10), pages 2883-2909, August.
    6. Martina Flörke & Christof Schneider & Robert I. McDonald, 2018. "Water competition between cities and agriculture driven by climate change and urban growth," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 1(1), pages 51-58, January.
    7. Yasuhide Okuyama & Adam Rose (ed.), 2019. "Advances in Spatial and Economic Modeling of Disaster Impacts," Advances in Spatial Science, Springer, number 978-3-030-16237-5, Fall.
    8. Francois Molle & Jeremy Berkoff, 2009. "Cities vs. agriculture: A review of intersectoral water re‐allocation," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(1), pages 6-18, February.
    9. Desbureaux, Sébastien & Rodella, Aude-Sophie, 2019. "Drought in the city: The economic impact of water scarcity in Latin American metropolitan areas," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 13-27.
    10. Adam Rose & Shu‐Yi Liao, 2005. "Modeling Regional Economic Resilience to Disasters: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of Water Service Disruptions," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(1), pages 75-112, February.
    11. Yasuhide Okuyama, 2007. "Economic Modeling for Disaster Impact Analysis: Past, Present, and Future," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 115-124.
    12. Yasuhide Okuyama & Adam Rose, 2019. "Advances in Spatial and Economic Modeling of Disaster Impacts: Introduction," Advances in Spatial Science, in: Yasuhide Okuyama & Adam Rose (ed.), Advances in Spatial and Economic Modeling of Disaster Impacts, chapter 0, pages 1-11, Springer.
    13. Joost R. Santos & Krista Danielle S. Yu & Sheree Ann T. Pagsuyoin & Raymond R. Tan, 2014. "Time-Varying Disaster Recovery Model For Interdependent Economic Systems Using Hybrid Input--Output And Event Tree Analysis," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(1), pages 60-80, March.
    14. Banerjee, Onil & Bark, Rosalind & Connor, Jeff & Crossman, Neville D., 2013. "An ecosystem services approach to estimating economic losses associated with drought," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 19-27.
    15. Carlos López-Morales & Faye Duchin, 2011. "Policies And Technologies For A Sustainable Use Of Water In Mexico: A Scenario Analysis," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(4), pages 387-407, September.
    16. Freire-González, Jaume & Decker, Christopher & Hall, Jim W., 2017. "The Economic Impacts of Droughts: A Framework for Analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 196-204.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Severin Reissl & Alessandro Caiani & Francesco Lamperti & Tommaso Ferraresi & Leonardo Ghezzi, 2024. "A regional input-output model of the COVID-19 crisis in Italy: decomposing demand and supply factors," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1), pages 100-130, January.
    2. Joost R. Santos & Sheree T. Pagsuyoin & Lucia C. Herrera & Raymond R. Tan & Krista D. Yu, 2014. "Analysis of drought risk management strategies using dynamic inoperability input–output modeling and event tree analysis," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 34(4), pages 492-506, December.
    3. Kourtit, Karima & Nijkamp, Peter & Banica, Alexandru, 2023. "An analysis of natural disasters’ effects – A global comparative study of ‘Blessing in Disguise’," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    4. Juan C. Surís-Regueiro & José L. Santiago, 2016. "An Input-Output methodological proposal to quantifying socio economic impacts linked to supply shocks," Working Papers 1603, Universidade de Vigo, Departamento de Economía Aplicada.
    5. Matteo Coronese & Davide Luzzati, 2022. "Economic impacts of natural hazards and complexity science: a critical review," LEM Papers Series 2022/13, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    6. David Nortes Martínez & Frédéric Grelot & Pauline Bremond & Stefano Farolfi & Juliette Rouchier, 2021. "Are interactions important in estimating flood damage to economic entities? The case of wine-making in France," Post-Print hal-03609616, HAL.
    7. Severin Reissl & Alessandro Caiani & Francesco Lamperti & Mattia Guerini & Fabio Vanni & Giorgio Fagiolo & Tommaso Ferraresi & Leonardo Ghezzi & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini, 2022. "Assessing the Economic Impact of Lockdowns in Italy: A Computational Input–Output Approach [Nonlinear Production Networks with an Application to the Covid-19 Crisis]," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 31(2), pages 358-409.
    8. Alina Botezat & Mihaela David & Cristian Incaltarau & Peter Nijkamp, 2021. "The Illusion of Urbanization: Impact of Administrative Reform on Communities’ Resilience," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 44(1), pages 33-84, January.
    9. Weijiang Li & Jiahong Wen & Bo Xu & Xiande Li & Shiqiang Du, 2018. "Integrated Assessment of Economic Losses in Manufacturing Industry in Shanghai Metropolitan Area Under an Extreme Storm Flood Scenario," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-19, December.
    10. Iman Rahimi Aloughareh & Mohsen Ghafory Ashtiany & Kiarash Nasserasadi, 2016. "An Integrated Methodology For Regional Macroeconomic Loss Estimation Of Earthquake: A Case Study Of Tehran," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 61(04), pages 1-24, September.
    11. Elena Ianchovichina & Maros Ivanic, 2016. "Economic Effects of the Syrian War and the Spread of the Islamic State on the Levant," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(10), pages 1584-1627, October.
    12. Rui Huang & Arunima Malik & Manfred Lenzen & Yutong Jin & Yafei Wang & Futu Faturay & Zhiyi Zhu, 2022. "Supply-chain impacts of Sichuan earthquake: a case study using disaster input–output analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 110(3), pages 2227-2248, February.
    13. Lorenzo Carrera & Gabriele Standardi & Francesco Bosello & Jaroslav Mysiak, 2014. "Assessing Direct and Indirect Economic Impacts of a Flood Event Through the Integration of Spatial and Computable General Equilibrium Modelling," Working Papers 2014.82, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    14. Pradeep V. Mandapaka & Edmond Y. M. Lo, 2023. "Assessing Shock Propagation and Cascading Uncertainties Using the Input–Output Framework: Analysis of an Oil Refinery Accident in Singapore," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-24, January.
    15. Jing-Li Fan & Qiao-Mei Liang & Xiao-Jie Liang & Hirokazu Tatano & Yoshio Kajitani & Yi-Ming Wei, 2014. "National vulnerability to extreme climatic events: the cases of electricity disruption in China and Japan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 71(3), pages 1937-1956, April.
    16. Naqvi, Asjad, 2017. "Deep Impact: Geo-Simulations as a Policy Toolkit for Natural Disasters," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 395-418.
    17. Davide Antonioli & Alberto Marzucchi & Marco Modica, 2022. "Resilience, Performance and Strategies in Firms’ Reactions to the Direct and Indirect Effects of a Natural Disaster," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 541-565, September.
    18. Selerio, Egberto & Maglasang, Renan, 2021. "Minimizing production loss consequent to disasters using a subsidy optimization model: a pandemic case," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 112-124.
    19. Xue Jin & Xiaoxia Shi & Jintian Gao & Tongbin Xu & Kedong Yin, 2018. "Evaluation of Loss Due to Storm Surge Disasters in China Based on Econometric Model Groups," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-19, March.
    20. Goerlandt, Floris & Islam, Samsul, 2021. "A Bayesian Network risk model for estimating coastal maritime transportation delays following an earthquake in British Columbia," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:envirb:v:48:y:2021:i:5:p:1058-1074. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.