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Cross-product Manipulation in Electricity Markets, Microstructure Models and Asymmetric Information

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  • Chiara Lo Prete
  • William W. Hogan
  • Bingyuan Liu
  • Jia Wang

Abstract

Electricity market manipulation enforcement actions have moved from conventional analysis of generator market power in real-time physical markets to material allegations of sustained cross-product price manipulation in forward financial markets. A major challenge is to develop and apply forward market analytical frameworks and models. This task is more difficult than for the real-time market. An adaptation of cross-product manipulation models from cash-settled financial markets provides an existence demonstration under uncertainty and asymmetric information. The implications of this analysis include strong empirical predictions about necessary randomized strategies that are not likely to be observed or sustainable in electricity markets. Absent these randomized strategies and other market imperfections, the means for achieving sustained forward market price manipulation remains unexplained.

Suggested Citation

  • Chiara Lo Prete & William W. Hogan & Bingyuan Liu & Jia Wang, 2019. "Cross-product Manipulation in Electricity Markets, Microstructure Models and Asymmetric Information," The Energy Journal, , vol. 40(5), pages 221-246, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:40:y:2019:i:5:p:221-246
    DOI: 10.5547/01956574.40.5.cpre
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    References listed on IDEAS

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