IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/compsc/v30y2013i5p433-451.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Warnings, terrorist threats and resilience: A laboratory experiment

Author

Listed:
  • Andrew W. Bausch

    (Carnegie Mellon University, USA)

  • Joao R. Faria

    (The University of Texas at El Paso, USA)

  • Thomas Zeitzoff

    (Princeton University, USA)

Abstract

One of the main goals of terrorism is to instill fear in a targeted populace. We investigate how information precision about rare, but highly devastating terrorist attacks influences psychological resilience, which we operationalize as the ability to continue to take optimum risks. First, we develop a mathematical model of a citizen’s resilience in the face of a terrorist threat. We then test the model in a laboratory experiment in which individuals face a choice between lotteries that offer higher payoffs but have a small probability of a large negative loss and a safe option. In the experiment, we vary the nature of warnings about the lotteries to see how vague warnings vs precise information influence optimal risk-taking (resilience). We find that precise information increases subjects’ willingness to take risks. Warnings containing no information do not influence subjects’ willingness to accept risk, but can influence resilience through affecting which risks subjects take.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew W. Bausch & Joao R. Faria & Thomas Zeitzoff, 2013. "Warnings, terrorist threats and resilience: A laboratory experiment," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 30(5), pages 433-451, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:compsc:v:30:y:2013:i:5:p:433-451
    DOI: 10.1177/0738894213499489
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0738894213499489
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/0738894213499489?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mueller, John E., 1970. "Presidential Popularity from Truman to Johnson1," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 64(1), pages 18-34, March.
    2. Khusrav Gaibulloev & Todd Sandier, 2011. "The Adverse Effect of Transnational and Domestic Terrorism on Growth in Africa," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 48(3), pages 355-371, May.
    3. Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal, 2003. "The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 113-132, March.
    4. Eric D. Gould & Esteban F. Klor, 2010. "Does Terrorism Work?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(4), pages 1459-1510.
    5. Daniel G Arce & Rachel TA Croson & Catherine C Eckel, 2011. "Terrorism Experiments," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 48(3), pages 373-382, May.
    6. S Brock Blomberg & Gregory D Hess & Daniel YJ Tan, 2011. "Terrorism and the Economics of Trust," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 48(3), pages 383-398, May.
    7. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    8. repec:cup:judgdm:v:4:y:2009:i:5:p:355-362 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Craig R. Fox & Amos Tversky, 1995. "Ambiguity Aversion and Comparative Ignorance," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(3), pages 585-603.
    10. Larry G. Epstein, 1999. "A Definition of Uncertainty Aversion," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 66(3), pages 579-608.
    11. Klar, Yechiel & Zakay, Dan & Sharvit, Keren, 2002. "‘If I don't get blown up ...’: realism in face of terrorism in an Israeli nationwide sample," Risk, Decision and Policy, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(2), pages 203-219, June.
    12. Blattman, Christopher, 2009. "From Violence to Voting: War and Political Participation in Uganda," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 103(2), pages 231-247, May.
    13. Shosh Shahrabani & Uri Benzion & Tal Shavit, 2009. "Recalled emotions and risk judgments: Field study of the 2006 Israel-Lebanon War," Working Papers 0909, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics.
    14. Palmieri, Patrick A. & Canetti-Nisim, Daphna & Galea, Sandro & Johnson, Robert J. & Hobfoll, Stevan E., 2008. "The psychological impact of the Israel-Hezbollah War on Jews and Arabs in Israel: The impact of risk and resilience factors," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 67(8), pages 1208-1216, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Michelle Sydes & Lorelei Hine & Angela Higginson & James McEwan & Laura Dugan & Lorraine Mazerolle, 2023. "Criminal justice interventions for preventing radicalisation, violent extremism and terrorism: An evidence and gap map," Campbell Systematic Reviews, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(4), December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Peter P. Wakker, 2000. "Uncertainty aversion: a discussion of critical issues in health economics," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(3), pages 261-263, April.
    2. Bruno S. Frey & Simon Luechinger, 2005. "Measuring terrorism," Chapters, in: Alain Marciano & Jean-Michel Josselin (ed.), Law and the State, chapter 6, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Shaw, W. Douglass & Woodward, Richard T., 2008. "Why environmental and resource economists should care about non-expected utility models," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 66-89, January.
    4. Amar Iqbal Anwar & Mazhar Mughal, 2013. "Foreign Financial Flows and Terrorism In Developing Countries," Working Papers hal-01885149, HAL.
    5. Stefano Costalli & Luigi Moretti & Costantino Pischedda, 2014. "The Economic Costs of Civil War: Synthetic Counterfactual Evidence and the Effects of Ethnic Fractionalization," HiCN Working Papers 184, Households in Conflict Network.
    6. Mohammed Abdellaoui & Olivier L’Haridon & Horst Zank, 2010. "Separating curvature and elevation: A parametric probability weighting function," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 39-65, August.
    7. Katharina Werner & Ahmed Skali, 2023. "Violent Conflict and Parochial Trust: Lab-in-the-Field and Survey Evidence," HiCN Working Papers 404, Households in Conflict Network.
    8. Tung Nguyen & Dimitris Petmezas & Nikolaos Karampatsas, 2023. "Does Terrorism Affect Acquisitions?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(7), pages 4134-4168, July.
    9. Machin, Stephen & Ivandic, Ria & Kirchmaier, Tom, 2019. "Jihadi Attacks, Media and Local Hate Crime," CEPR Discussion Papers 13743, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Zimper, Alexander, 2012. "Asset pricing in a Lucas fruit-tree economy with the best and worst in mind," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 610-628.
    11. Peri, Giovanni & Rees, Daniel I. & Smith, Brock, 2023. "Terrorism and political attitudes: Evidence from European social surveys," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    12. Ulrich Hendel, 2016. "‘Look like the innocent flower, but be the serpent under’t’: mimicking behaviour of growth-oriented terrorist organizations," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(5), pages 665-687, September.
    13. Alexander Ludwig & Alexander Zimper, 2013. "A decision-theoretic model of asset-price underreaction and overreaction to dividend news," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 9(4), pages 625-665, November.
    14. Brian Hill, 2009. "Confidence and ambiguity," Working Papers hal-00489870, HAL.
    15. Géraldine Bocqueho & Marc Deschamps & Jenny Helstroffer & Julien Jacob & Majlinda Joxhe & Ofce Observatoire Français Des Conjonctures Économiques, 2018. "The risk and refugee migration," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03607866, HAL.
    16. Cédric Gutierrez & Emmanuel Kemel, 2021. "Measuring natural source dependence," Working Papers hal-03330409, HAL.
    17. Calvo, Thomas & Lavallée, Emmanuelle & Razafindrakoto, Mireille & Roubaud, François, 2020. "Fear Not For Man? Armed conflict and social capital in Mali," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 251-276.
    18. Zeckhauser Richard, 2006. "Investing in the Unknown and Unknowable," Capitalism and Society, De Gruyter, vol. 1(2), pages 1-41, September.
    19. Michael Jetter, 2017. "Mediated Terrorism: US News and Al-Qaeda Attacks," CESifo Working Paper Series 6804, CESifo.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:compsc:v:30:y:2013:i:5:p:433-451. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://pss.la.psu.edu/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.