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Pathways to State Failure

Author

Listed:
  • Jack A. Goldstone

    (School of Public Policy George Mason University Arlington, Virginia, USA, jgoldsto@gmu.edu)

Abstract

Attempts to forecast or remedy state failure would benefit from a clearer view of the multiple pathways that can lead states to fail. This paper delineates five pathways: escalating ethnic conflicts, state predation, regional guerrilla rebellion, democratic collapse, and succession/reform crises in authoritarian states. Each of these five pathways involves changes in the legitimacy and effectiveness of regimes; state failures follow upon the loss of both legitimacy and effectiveness. Examples are provided and guidelines are offered for efforts to avert failure in fragile states.

Suggested Citation

  • Jack A. Goldstone, 2008. "Pathways to State Failure," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 25(4), pages 285-296, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:compsc:v:25:y:2008:i:4:p:285-296
    DOI: 10.1080/07388940802397343
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson, 2001. "The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1369-1401, December.
    2. Greif,Avner, 2006. "Institutions and the Path to the Modern Economy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521480444.
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    Cited by:

    1. David Carment & Mark Haichin & Peter Tikuisis, 2017. "Backsliding and reversal: The J-Curve revisited," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2017-170, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    2. Yijian Liu & Chaoqun Zhou & Lin Li & Liang Su & Yuanbiao Zhang, 2018. "Fragile States Metric System: An Assessment Model Considering Climate Change," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-29, May.
    3. Tilman Brück & Patricia Justino & Charles Patrick Martin-Shields, 2017. "Conflict and development: Recent research advances and future agendas," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2017-178, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    4. Tilman Brück & Patricia Justino & Charles Patrick MartinShields, 2017. "Conflict and development: Recent research advances and future agendas," WIDER Working Paper Series 178, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    5. Justin Logan & Christopher Preble, 2011. "Fixing Failed States: A Dissenting View," Chapters, in: Christopher J. Coyne & Rachel L. Mathers (ed.), The Handbook on the Political Economy of War, chapter 19, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Rachael Calleja & David Carment & Mark Haichin & Peter Tikuisis, 2017. "Backsliding and reversal: The J-Curve revisited," WIDER Working Paper Series 170, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    7. Martin-Shields, Charles, 2017. "State fragility as a cause of forced displacement: identifying theoretical channels for empirical research," IDOS Discussion Papers 30/2017, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).

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