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Likelihood Estimation of the Systemic Poison-Induced Morbidity in an Adult North Eastern Romanian Population

Author

Listed:
  • Catalina Lionte

    (Gr. T. Popa University of Medicine and Pharmacy)

  • Victorita Sorodoc

    (Gr. T. Popa University of Medicine and Pharmacy)

  • Cristina Tuchilus

    (Gr. T. Popa University of Medicine and Pharmacy)

  • Elisabeta Jaba

    (Al. I. Cuza University of Iasi)

Abstract

Purpose - Acute exposure to a systemic poison represents an important segment of medical emergencies. We aimed to estimate the likelihood of systemic poison-induced morbidity in a population admitted in a tertiary referral center from North East Romania, based on the determinant factors. Methodology - This was a prospective observational cohort study on adult poisoned patients. Demographic, clinical and laboratory characteristics were recorded in all patients. We analyzed three groups of patients, based on the associated morbidity during hospitalization. We identified significant differences between groups and predictors with significant effects on morbidity using multiple multinomial logistic regressions. ROC analysis proved that a combination of tests could improve diagnostic accuracy of poison-related morbidity. Main findings - Of the 180 patients included, aged 44.7 ± 17.2 years, 51.1% males, 49.4% had no poison-related morbidity, 28.9% developed a mild morbidity, and 21.7% had a severe morbidity, followed by death in 16 patients (8.9%). Multiple complications and deaths were recorded in patients aged 53.4 ± 17.6 years (p .001), with a lower Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score upon admission and a significantly higher heart rate (101 ± 32 beats/min, p .011). Routine laboratory tests were significantly higher in patients with a recorded morbidity. Multiple logistic regression analysis demonstrated that a GCS

Suggested Citation

  • Catalina Lionte & Victorita Sorodoc & Cristina Tuchilus & Elisabeta Jaba, 2016. "Likelihood Estimation of the Systemic Poison-Induced Morbidity in an Adult North Eastern Romanian Population," Romanian Statistical Review, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 64(4), pages 87-99, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:rsr:journl:v:64:y:2016:i:4:p:87-99
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. AfDB AfDB, . "Annual Report 2012," Annual Report, African Development Bank, number 461.
    2. Shivalingappa B Javali & Parameshwar V Pandit, 2012. "Multiple Logistic Regression Model To Predict Risk Factors Of Oral Health Diseases," Romanian Statistical Review, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 60(5), pages 73-86, June.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    systemic poison; likelihood; morbidity; logistic regression; ROC;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C29 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Other
    • C39 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Other
    • C88 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Other Computer Software
    • I19 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Other

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