Risks and Benefits for EAEU from Various Integration Scenarios in Asia-Pacific Region
Using computable general equilibrium (CGE) model GLOBE v1 we investigate various scenarios of the integration in the Pacific Rim within the framework of the TransPacific Partnership (TPP) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). For the considered scenarios we obtained forecasts of changes in GDP, aggregate exports and sectoral output, which are stable for changes in input parameters of the model. CGEmodelling of considered Free trade areas (FTA) was performed via mutual zeroingout import tariffs for FTAmember countries. As tariff values applied in the model for countries of Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) we used our calculations of trade value weighted averages for Common Customs Tariff rates of EAEU. It was shown that nonparticipation of the EAEU in the Pacific Rim’s integration has a very small positive impact on the economies of the EAEU countries. Meanwhile, participation is generally beneficial for all EAEU countries and it gives more or less noticeable gains in key macroeconomic indicators, though it creates risks for some sectors. Joining TPP will be the most beneficial for EAEU only under the condition of China’s participation in TPP. Due to the uncertainty of China’s joining TPP a good alternative for EAEU is its entry into RCEP. In the case of EAEU’s accession to the RCEP Russia’s real GDP is expected to grow in the longrun by 0,74% (about 10 billion US dollars). For some sectors the answer to the question whether in a particular sector will be observed growth or decline in output levels is determined by the scenario of integration — these sectors are at risk: chemical, rubber and plastic products; motor vehicles and parts; wood and paper products; textiles; wearing apparel; food production sector.
Volume (Year): 2 (2017)
Issue (Month): (April)
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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Karen Thierfelder & Scott McDonald, 2012. "Globe v1: A SAM Based Global CGE Model using GTAP Data," Departmental Working Papers 39, United States Naval Academy Department of Economics.
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