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A Revisit of Tourism and Growth Nexus in the Provinces of China based on Bootstrap Panel Causality Test with a Fourier Function

Author

Listed:
  • Tsangyao CHANG

    (Department of Finance, Feng Chia University, Taichung, TAIWAN)

  • Veli YILANCI

    (Department of Economics, Faculty of Political Sciences, Canakkale Onsekiz Mart University, Merkez, Canakkale, TURKEY, Email: veliyilanci@gmail.com)

  • Mei-Chih WANG

    (Department of Insurance and Finance, National Taichung University of Science and Technology, Taichung, TAIWAN)

  • Jennifer MIN

    (Department of International Business, Ming Chung University, Taipei, TAIWAN)

Abstract

In this study, we collect annual data for 30 regions in China using tourism receipts and gross domestic product over the period of 1980-2020. Empirical results from Bootstrap Toda-Yamamoto Granger Causality test with a Fourier function, which consider both cross-sectional dependence and multiple smooth breaks, support the evidence of feedback hypothesis in most of the regions except for Jilin that we find the validity of tourism-led-growth hypothesis, Shanxi, and Qinghai where we find the supportive evidence of growth-led-tourism hypothesis, and for Gansu, Ningxia, and Xinjiang where we find the strong evidence of neutrality hypothesis. These results further show the importance of incorporating cross-sectional dependence and smooth breaks in testing the Granger causality. Our empirical results have important policy implications for the regional governments in China conducting tourism policy to sustain its regional economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Tsangyao CHANG & Veli YILANCI & Mei-Chih WANG & Jennifer MIN, 2024. "A Revisit of Tourism and Growth Nexus in the Provinces of China based on Bootstrap Panel Causality Test with a Fourier Function," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 46-62, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2024:i:4:p:46-62
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nazlioglu, Saban & Gormus, N. Alper & Soytas, Uğur, 2016. "Oil prices and real estate investment trusts (REITs): Gradual-shift causality and volatility transmission analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 168-175.
    2. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Seema Narayan & Arti Prasad & Biman Chand Prasad, 2010. "Tourism and Economic Growth: A Panel Data Analysis for Pacific Island Countries," Tourism Economics, , vol. 16(1), pages 169-183, March.
    3. Ghali, Moheb A, 1976. "Tourism and Economic Growth: An Empirical Study," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 24(3), pages 527-538, April.
    4. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Regional Analysis; Panel Data; Sustainability; Cross-Sectional Dependence; Smooth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • Z3 - Other Special Topics - - Tourism Economics

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