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Tax Policy under the Curse of Low Revenues: The Case of Romania (Part I)


  • Daianu, Daniel

    () (SNSPA, Bucharest)

  • Kallai, Ella

    () (Alpha Bank Romania)

  • Lungu, Laurian

    () (Cardiff Business School and Macroanalitica, Bucharest)


The Romanian tax revenue-to-GDP ratio has been far below the average level of both the European Union and the New Member States for many years. The decade long growth cycle hid significant structural imbalances in the public budget. This paper attempts to identify reasons why tax revenues in Romania are the lowest among the EU-27 countries. It takes a broader perspective by looking at the main sources of tax revenues over the last two decades. Implications of the policy regime change following the introduction of flat tax in 2005 are considered. It also does a few comparisons with other countries from Central and Eastern Europe by looking at the main tax revenue components.

Suggested Citation

  • Daianu, Daniel & Kallai, Ella & Lungu, Laurian, 2012. "Tax Policy under the Curse of Low Revenues: The Case of Romania (Part I)," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 156-186, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2012:i:1:p:156-186

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. N. Gregory Mankiw & Matthew Weinzierl & Danny Yagan, 2009. "Optimal Taxation in Theory and Practice," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(4), pages 147-174, Fall.
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    4. Tuomala, Matti, 1990. "Optimal Income Tax and Redistribution," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198286059, June.
    5. Dumitru, Ionut & Stanca, Razvan, 2010. "Fiscal discipline and economic growth – the case of Romania," MPRA Paper 27300, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Roger Gordon & Wei Li, 2007. "Puzzling Tax Structures in Devloping Countries: A Comparison of Two Alternative Explanations," NBER Chapters,in: Fiscal Policy and Management in East Asia, NBER-EASE, Volume 16, pages 9-35 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Thomas Hemmelgarn & Gaetan Nicodeme, 2010. "The 2008 Financial Crisis and Taxation Policy," Taxation Papers 20, Directorate General Taxation and Customs Union, European Commission.
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    12. Diamond, Peter A & Mirrlees, James A, 1971. "Optimal Taxation and Public Production II: Tax Rules," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 61(3), pages 261-278, June.
    13. Marcin Piatkowski & Mariusz Jarmuzek, 2008. "Zero Corporate Income Tax in Moldova; Tax Competition and Its Implications for Eastern Europe," IMF Working Papers 08/203, International Monetary Fund.
    14. European Commission, 2009. "Taxation trends in the European Union: 2009 edition," Taxation trends 2009, Directorate General Taxation and Customs Union, European Commission.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sokolovska, Olena & Sokolovskyi, Dmytro, 2015. "Analysis of dependence of tax behavior on macroeconomic factors: the case of OECD countries," MPRA Paper 69059, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jan 2016.
    2. Pelinescu, Elena, 2013. "The Mechanisms of Arrears in Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 223-239, June.

    More about this item


    Budgetary Revenues; Taxation; Implicit Tax Rates; Arrears; Shadow Economy;

    JEL classification:

    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
    • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General


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