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Exploring the Economic Convergence in the Eu’s New Member States by Using Nonparametric Models

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  • Raileanu Szeles, Monica

    () (Transilvania University of Brasov and CEPS/INSTEAD Luxembourg)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the process of real economic convergence in the New Member States, by using non-parametric methods, e.g. the ash-warping test, kernel density estimation and stochastic kernel. The main findings of the paper are the bimodality of income density distribution over time and across countries, the lack of convergence at a single point in time and the presence of convergence clubs in the income distribution from 1995 to 2008.They suggest the lack of absolute convergence on long term (1995-2008), and also when looking only from 2003 onwards. The paper concludes that, in comparison with the parametrical approach, the non-parametric one gives a deeper, real and richer perspective on the process of real convergence in the NMS.

Suggested Citation

  • Raileanu Szeles, Monica, 2011. "Exploring the Economic Convergence in the Eu’s New Member States by Using Nonparametric Models," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 20-40, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2011:i:1:p:20-40
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    2. Quah, Danny, 1993. "Empirical cross-section dynamics in economic growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 426-434, April.
    3. Rassekh, Farhad & Panik, Michael J. & Kolluri, Bharat R., 2001. "A test of the convergence hypothesis: the OECD experience, 1950-1990," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 147-157.
    4. Galor, Oded, 1996. "Convergence? Inferences from Theoretical Models," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(437), pages 1056-1069, July.
    5. Isaias Hazarmabeth Salgado-Ugarte & Makoto Shimizu & Toru Taniuchi, 1996. "Practical rules for bandwidth selection in univariate density estimation," Stata Technical Bulletin, StataCorp LP, vol. 5(27).
    6. Johnson, Paul A., 2000. "A nonparametric analysis of income convergence across the US states," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 219-223, November.
    7. Isaias Hazarmabeth Salgado-Ugarte & Makoto Shimizu & Toru Taniuchi, 1996. "ASH, WARPing, and kernel density estimation for univariate data," Stata Technical Bulletin, StataCorp LP, vol. 5(26).
    8. Shorrocks, A F, 1978. "The Measurement of Mobility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(5), pages 1013-1024, September.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    real convergence; non-parametric models; stochastic kernel; modality;

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General

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