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On Measuring Country Risk: A new System Modelling Approach - La misura del rischio paese: un nuovo approccio system modelling

  • Chopra, Parvesh K.

    (International Centre for Development and Performance Management (ICDPM))

  • Kanji, Gopal K.

    (Kanji Quality Culture Ltd.)

Registered author(s):

    Country risk is of increasing importance in the evaluation of overseas investments, international trade flows, foreign direct investments and volatility and predictability in stock market returns. A clear understanding of the concept, measurement and management of the level and magnitude of country risk is imperative for a global investor since the overseas operating profits and the value of assets can be adversely affected. All previous conceptualisations, techniques and methods of measuring the country risk are ad hoc, narrow, partial in approach and suffer from various drawbacks. Also, country risk measures remain notoriously unreliable in predicting unfavourable changes in operating conditions and relatively little time has been given to addressing methodological issues involved in the conceptualisation, assessment and management of country risk. However, in this paper we introduce a new conceptualisation and measurement of country risk. Based on a holistic and system modelling approach, this paper constructs a latent variable structural equations model to measure country risk within certain boundaries of the whole system. The model decomposes the country risk index into political risk index, financial risk index, economic risk index, and operational risk index. This paper describes the general process used to create country risk assessment measure and examines the degree of association among various risk measures. - Il rischio paese sta assumendo una rilevanza crescente sulla valutazione degli investimenti all’estero, dei flussi di commercio internazionale, degli investimenti diretti esteri, della volatilità e prevedibilità dei rendimenti azionari. Una chiara comprensione, la misurazione e la gestione del rischio paese sono imperativi per un investitore globale poiché tale rischio può influenzare negativamente i profitti e il valore degli attivi di operazioni all’estero. Ad oggi vengono adottate concettualizzazioni, tecniche e metodi di misurazione del rischio paese ad hoc, che presentano numerosi inconvenienti. Inoltre, le valutazioni del rischio paese si sono notoriamente rivelate inaffidabili nel predire modifiche sfavorevoli alle condizioni operative e, sino ad oggi, lo studio delle problematiche metodologiche inerenti la concettualizzazione, la valutazione e la gestione del rischio paese è stato trascurato. In questo lavoro viene introdotta una nuova definizione e quantificazione del rischio paese. Sulla base di un approccio olistico e system modelling viene elaborato un modello di equazioni a variabili latenti che suddivide il rischio paese in politico, finanziario, economico e operativo. Lo studio descrive anche il procedimento generale usato per definire il rischio paese ed esamina il grado di associazione tra le misure del rischio.

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    Article provided by Camera di Commercio di Genova in its journal Economia Internazionale / International Economics.

    Volume (Year): 63 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 4 ()
    Pages: 479-515

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    Handle: RePEc:ris:ecoint:0607
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    1. Gopal Kanji & Parvesh Chopra, 2007. "Poverty as a System: Human Contestability Approach to Poverty Measurement," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(9), pages 1135-1158.
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