IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

An econometric approach to macroeconomic risk. A cross country study


  • Carrera, Jorge Eduardo
  • Cusolito, Ana Paula
  • Féliz, Mariano
  • Panigo, Demian


A contribution to the study of volatility and country risk is made in order to achieve a successful crosscountry comparison. We present a methodology for the evaluation of country risk that include endogenous detection of multiple structural breaks (also identifying its different kinds), determination of persistence of shocks through their structural-break free fractional integration order and determination of the adjusted volatility which best characterizes the economy. This methodology is applied to developed and emerging countries' GDPs (taking 9 countries from each group). Although the former have fewer structural breaks than the latter, these breaks are extremely relevant in 14 of the 18 countries. This affects the calculation of the series persistence and volatility. Comparing a traditional risk indicator to our suggested one we find that the cluster of reference of 60% of the countries changes. Most countries present fractional integration (long memory) being the distribution between both groups heterogeneous. Country volatility varies strongly if we isolate structural breaks that present a probabilistic distribution different from intrinsic GDP volatility. Clusters arrangement is different with some risk country evaluation methodologies.

Suggested Citation

  • Carrera, Jorge Eduardo & Cusolito, Ana Paula & Féliz, Mariano & Panigo, Demian, 2001. "An econometric approach to macroeconomic risk. A cross country study," MPRA Paper 7846, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2001.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:7846

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Cooper, Richard N., 1985. "Economic interdependence and coordination of economic policies," Handbook of International Economics,in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 23, pages 1195-1234 Elsevier.
    2. Francesco Giavazzi & Marco Pagano, 1991. "The Advantage of Tying One's Hands: EMS Discipline and Central Bank Credibility," NBER Chapters,in: International Volatility and Economic Growth: The First Ten Years of The International Seminar on Macroeconomics, pages 303-330 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Harrison, Glenn W & Vinod, H D, 1992. "The Sensitivity Analysis of Applied General Equilibrium Models: Completely Randomized Factorial Sampling Designs," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(2), pages 357-362, May.
    4. Shoven,John B. & Whalley,John, 1992. "Applying General Equilibrium," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521266550, May.
    5. Ilan GOLDFAJN & Gino OLIVARES, 2001. "Can Flexible Exchange Rates Still “Work” In Financially Open Economies?," G-24 Discussion Papers 8, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    6. Carrera, Jorge Eduardo, 2004. "Hard peg and monetary unions.Main lessons from the Argentine experience," MPRA Paper 7843, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2007.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Chopra, Parvesh K., 2015. "Country Risk: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis with Special Reference to Northern African Economies - Il rischio paese: un’analisi teorica e empirica con particolare riferimento ai paesi del Nord ," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 68(1), pages 81-137.
    2. Chopra, Parvesh K. & Kanji, Gopal K., 2010. "On Measuring Country Risk: A new System Modelling Approach - La misura del rischio paese: un nuovo approccio system modelling," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 63(4), pages 479-515.

    More about this item


    Risk; Volatility; Persistence; Structural breaks; Forescastability; Macroeconomic variables; Cross country analysis;

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:7846. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter) or (Rebekah McClure). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.