IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ris/apltrx/0453.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Spatial modelling of voting preferences: The “Mystery” of the Republic of Tatarstan

Author

Listed:
  • Podkolzina, Elena

    (HSE University, Moscow.)

  • Kuletskaya, Lada

    (HSE University, Moscow.)

  • Demidova, Olga

    (HSE University, Moscow.)

Abstract

We argue neighbors play a crucial role in voting behavior for the main candidate in Russia. Moreover, the official status of the region and connectedness with the ruling party matter. The neighborhood effects we explain with the idea that voters base on public choices and illustrate it on the example of Privolzhskiy federal district regions with an emphasis on Tatarstan and its effect on voting on the municipal level. The Republic of Tatarstan is an interesting case also because it is the republic in Russia that has reference to sovereignty in its constitution and at the same time is loyal to the Kremlin. This paper presents a detailed spatial analysis of voters’ responses at the municipal level covering Russian presidential elections in 2018 year using the example of the Republic of Tatarstan and its surrounding regions. The preferred 2‑step OLS specification with instruments shows that Tatarstan had a strong positive effect on neighboring regions in terms of voting for the main candidate, while surrounding regions voted differently and negatively affected each other. Municipalities with better economic conditions had a negative impact on the share of votes for the main candidate and positive for the opposite.

Suggested Citation

  • Podkolzina, Elena & Kuletskaya, Lada & Demidova, Olga, 2022. "Spatial modelling of voting preferences: The “Mystery” of the Republic of Tatarstan," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 67, pages 74-96.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:apltrx:0453
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://pe.cemi.rssi.ru/pe_2022_67_074-096.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christopher F Baum & Mark E. Schaffer & Steven Stillman, 2007. "Enhanced routines for instrumental variables/generalized method of moments estimation and testing," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 7(4), pages 465-506, December.
    2. Coleman, Stephen, 2018. "Voting and conformity: Russia, 1993–2016," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 87-95.
    3. Kelejian, Harry H & Prucha, Ingmar R, 1998. "A Generalized Spatial Two-Stage Least Squares Procedure for Estimating a Spatial Autoregressive Model with Autoregressive Disturbances," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 99-121, July.
    4. Rodion Skovoroda & Tomila Lankina, 2017. "Fabricating votes for Putin: new tests of fraud and electoral manipulations from Russia," Post-Soviet Affairs, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 100-123, March.
    5. Kleibergen, Frank & Paap, Richard, 2006. "Generalized reduced rank tests using the singular value decomposition," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 133(1), pages 97-126, July.
    6. Elena Anatolyevna Podkolzina & Olga Anatolyevna Demidova & Lada Evgenyevna Kuletskaya, 2020. "Spatial Modeling of Voting Preferences in Russian Federation," Spatial Economics=Prostranstvennaya Ekonomika, Economic Research Institute, Far Eastern Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences (Khabarovsk, Russia), issue 2, pages 70-100.
    7. James Enelow & Melvin Hinich, 1989. "A general probabilistic spatial theory of elections," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 101-113, May.
    8. Каспэ Святослав Игоревич & Алескеров Фуад Тагиевич & Маршаков Вадим Андреевич & Бородин Александр Дмитриевич & Салмин Алексей Михайлович, 2005. "Анализ Электоральных Предпочтений В России В 1993–2003 Гг. : Динамика Индекса Поляризованности," Higher School of Economics Economic Journal Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики, CyberLeninka;Федеральное государственное автономное образовательное учреждение высшего образования «Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики», vol. 9(2), pages 173-184.
    9. Davis, Otto A. & Hinich, Melvin J. & Ordeshook, Peter C., 1970. "An Expository Development of a Mathematical Model of the Electoral Process," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 64(2), pages 426-448, June.
    10. Burnett, Wesley & Lacombe, Donald J., 2012. "Accounting for Spatial Autocorrelation in the 2004 Presidential Popular Vote: A Reassessment of the Evidence," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 42(1), pages 75-89, Spring.
    11. Elinder, Mikael, 2010. "Local economies and general elections: The influence of municipal and regional economic conditions on voting in Sweden 1985-2002," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 279-292, June.
    12. Christa D. Jensen & Donald J. Lacombe & Stuart G. McIntyre, 2013. "A Bayesian spatial econometric analysis of the 2010 UK General Election," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 92(3), pages 651-666, August.
    13. Coleman, Stephen, 2004. "The Effect of Social Conformity on Collective Voting Behavior," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(1), pages 76-96, January.
    14. Бородин А. Д., 2005. "Согласованность Коллективных Действий В Поведении Российских Избирателей," Higher School of Economics Economic Journal Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики, CyberLeninka;Федеральное государственное автономное образовательное учреждение высшего образования «Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики», vol. 9(1).
    15. Enelow, James M. & Hinich, Melvin J., 1982. "Ideology, Issues, and the Spatial Theory of Elections," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 76(3), pages 493-501, September.
    16. Anthony Downs, 1957. "An Economic Theory of Political Action in a Democracy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65(2), pages 135-135.
    17. Erikson, Robert S. & Romero, David W., 1990. "Candidate Equilibrium and the Behavioral Model of the Vote," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 84(4), pages 1103-1126, December.
    18. Jessee, Stephen A., 2009. "Spatial Voting in the 2004 Presidential Election," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 103(1), pages 59-81, February.
    19. Cheryl Boudreau & Christopher S. Elmendorf & Scott A. MacKenzie, 2019. "Racial or Spatial Voting? The Effects of Candidate Ethnicity and Ethnic Group Endorsements in Local Elections," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 63(1), pages 5-20, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. John Jackson, 2014. "Location, location, location: the Davis-Hinich model of electoral competition," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 159(1), pages 197-218, April.
    2. Panagiotis Artelaris & Yannis Tsirbas, 2018. "Anti-austerity voting in an era of economic crisis: Regional evidence from the 2015 referendum in Greece," Environment and Planning C, , vol. 36(4), pages 589-608, June.
    3. Tanner, Thomas Cole, 1994. "The spatial theory of elections: an analysis of voters' predictive dimensions and recovery of the underlying issue space," ISU General Staff Papers 1994010108000018174, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    4. Tovey, Craig A., 2010. "The instability of instability of centered distributions," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 53-73, January.
    5. James Cochran & David Curry & Rajesh Radhakrishnan & Jon Pinnell, 2014. "Political engineering: optimizing a U.S. Presidential candidate’s platform," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 215(1), pages 63-87, April.
    6. Rajeev Goel & James Saunoris, 2014. "Global corruption and the shadow economy: spatial aspects," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 161(1), pages 119-139, October.
    7. Panagiotis Artelaris & George Mavrommatis, 2021. "The role of economic and cultural changes in the rise of far‐right in Greece: A regional analysis," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 353-369, April.
    8. Roychowdhury, Punarjit, 2019. "Peer effects in consumption in India: An instrumental variables approach using negative idiosyncratic shocks," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 122-137.
    9. Wael J. Haboub, 2012. "Demystifying the Rise of Hamas," Journal of Developing Societies, , vol. 28(1), pages 57-79, March.
    10. Persson, Torsten & Tabellini, Guido, 2002. "Political economics and public finance," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 24, pages 1549-1659, Elsevier.
    11. MacDonald, Peter, 2013. "Labour substitution and the scope for military outsourcing," MPRA Paper 46688, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Fraser Summerfield & Livio Di Matteo, 2021. "Influenza Pandemics and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Recent Economic History," Working Papers 210002, Canadian Centre for Health Economics.
    13. Coleman, S., 2010. "Russian Election Reform and the Effect of Social Conformity on Voting and the Party System: 2007 and 2008," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, issue 5, pages 73-90.
    14. Vance, Colin & Frondel, Manuel, 2015. "From fuel taxation to efficiency standards: A wrong turn in European climate protection?," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113171, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    15. Juergen Bitzer & Erkan Goeren, 2018. "Foreign Aid and Subnational Development: A Grid Cell Analysis," Working Papers V-407-18, University of Oldenburg, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2018.
    16. Fabian Gouret & Guillaume Hollard & Stéphane Rossignol, 2011. "An empirical analysis of valence in electoral competition," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 37(2), pages 309-340, July.
    17. Xefteris, Dimitrios, 2017. "Multidimensional electoral competition between differentiated candidates," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 112-121.
    18. Sisira Sarma & Rose Anne Devlin & Jason Gilliland & M. Karen Campbell & Gregory S. Zaric, 2015. "The Effect of Leisure‐Time Physical Activity on Obesity, Diabetes, High BP and Heart Disease Among Canadians: Evidence from 2000/2001 to 2005/2006," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(12), pages 1531-1547, December.
    19. Kenneth Koford, 1982. "Centralized vote-trading," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 245-268, January.
    20. Burger, John D. & Warnock, Francis E. & Warnock, Veronica Cacdac, 2018. "Currency matters: Analyzing international bond portfolios," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 376-388.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    spatial autocorrelation; electoral preferences; local economic conditions; GMM; 2-step OLS; Russian 2018 presidential elections;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
    • R50 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Regional Government Analysis - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:apltrx:0453. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Anatoly Peresetsky (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://appliedeconometrics.cemi.rssi.ru/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.