IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ris/apltrx/0353.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Volatility of ruble exchange rate: Oil and sanctions

Author

Listed:
  • Aganin, Artem

    () (National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russian Federation)

  • Peresetsky, Anatoly

    () (National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russian Federation)

Abstract

Stability of the national currency exchange rate is an important factor for sustainable economic growth. A number of papers demonstrate that in the oil exporting countries currency exchange rate to the large extent is defined by the international oil prices. However, there are almost no papers which consider dependence of the exchange rate volatility on the volatility of oil prices. In this paper, we use one-dimensional GARCH models and two-dimensional VAR-BEKK models to analyze the dependence of the ruble exchange rate volatility on the oil price volatility. We found out that this dependence is not constant in time and depends on various macroeconomic factors. This dependence significantly increases when oil prices are low and weakens when oil prices are high. The introduction of sanctions has increased the volatility of the ruble exchange rate. Sanctions have also increased the dependence of the ruble exchange rate volatility on oil price volatility. It is also shown that the impact of sanctions decreases with time, what can be interpreted as an adaptation of the Russian economy to sanctions.

Suggested Citation

  • Aganin, Artem & Peresetsky, Anatoly, 2018. "Volatility of ruble exchange rate: Oil and sanctions," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 52, pages 5-21.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:apltrx:0353
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://pe.cemi.rssi.ru/pe_2018_52_005-021.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 122-150, February.
    2. repec:aen:journl:ej39-2-jung is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Valeriy Mironov & Anna Petronevich, 2015. "Discovering the signs of Dutch disease in Russia," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01692231, HAL.
    4. Iikka Korhonen & Tuuli Juurikkala, 2009. "Equilibrium exchange rates in oil-exporting countries," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 33(1), pages 71-79, January.
    5. David E. Allen & Michael McAleer, 2018. "Theoretical and Empirical Differences between Diagonal and Full BEKK for Risk Management," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 11(7), pages 1-19, June.
    6. Boldanov, Rustam & Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George, 2016. "Time-varying correlation between oil and stock market volatilities: Evidence from oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 209-220.
    7. repec:eee:jimfin:v:86:y:2018:i:c:p:264-280 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. repec:eee:ecofin:v:44:y:2018:i:c:p:140-152 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Zakoian, Jean-Michel, 1994. "Threshold heteroskedastic models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 931-955, September.
    10. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. " On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
    11. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    12. Mironov, Valeriy V. & Petronevich, Anna V., 2015. "Discovering the signs of Dutch disease in Russia," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(P2), pages 97-112.
    13. Fatih Kaplan, 2015. "Oil Price, Exhange Rate and Economic Growth in Russia: A Multiple Structural Break Approach," Advances in Management and Applied Economics, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 5(4), pages 1-7.
    14. repec:zbw:espost:181286 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Komain Jiranyakul, 2015. "Oil Price Volatility and Real Effective Exchange Rate: The Case of Thailand," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(2), pages 574-579.
    16. Dreger, Christian & Kholodilin, Konstantin A. & Ulbricht, Dirk & Fidrmuc, Jarko, 2016. "Between the Hammer and the Anvil: The Impact of Economic Sanctions and Oil Prices on Russia’s Ruble," EconStor Open Access Articles, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, pages 295-308.
    17. repec:eee:empfin:v:47:y:2018:i:c:p:90-104 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. E. Gurvich & I. Prilepskiy., 2016. "The impact of financial sanctions on the Russian economy," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 1.
    19. repec:spr:eurase:v:7:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s40822-017-0065-1 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. repec:eee:ecofin:v:44:y:2018:i:c:p:12-33 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    exchange rate volatility; oil price volatility; Russia; sanctions; AR-TGARCH; VAR-BEKK;

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:apltrx:0353. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Anatoly Peresetsky). General contact details of provider: http://appliedeconometrics.cemi.rssi.ru/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.