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Impact of Monetary Aggregates on Consumer Behavior:A Study on the Policy Response of the Federal Reserve against COVID-19

Author

Listed:
  • Kilci, Esra N.

    (Department of Health Economics, Istanbul University-Cerrahpasa, Turkey)

  • Yilanci, Veli

    (Department of Economics, Canakkale 18 Mart University,Turkey)

Abstract

Consumers have tended to sharply decrease their spending during the COVID-19 pandemic due to pessimistic expectations related to the economic outlook, concerns about their jobs, and a decline in incomes. The Federal Reserve has taken several measures in response to the pandemic, resulting in increases in the money supply and asset sizes. This study aims to analyze the impact of monetary aggregates on consumer behavior before and after the pandemic by employing the bootstrap autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration test with an exogenous structural break. The US money supply (M3) and total assets are used as dependent variables and consumer expenditure, consumer credit, and consumer sentiment are the independent variables. The data employed cover the period from January 2003 to August 2020. The results show cointegration relationships among consumer expenditure, the US money supply (M3), and total assets. The effect of the FED’s policy response on consumer behavior has strengthened after the pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Kilci, Esra N. & Yilanci, Veli, 2022. "Impact of Monetary Aggregates on Consumer Behavior:A Study on the Policy Response of the Federal Reserve against COVID-19," Asian Journal of Applied Economics/ Applied Economics Journal, Kasetsart University, Faculty of Economics, Center for Applied Economic Research, vol. 29(1), pages 100-122, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:apecjn:0068
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    consumer behavior; COVID-19; structural breaks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C40 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - General
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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