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Un modèle économétrique dynamique de l’abandon scolaire au Québec et en Ontario

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  • Belzil, Christian

    (Centre National de Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

In this paper, I investigate the Quebec-Ontario school drop-out rate differential using a dynamic model of schooling attainment. The model stresses three distinct set of factors, parental education (or other family background variables), gender differences and unobserved (to the econometrician) factors. In both Quebec and Ontario, the school drop out rate is found to decrease with parental education. However, the male-female differential in the incidence of school drop-out in Quebec is much higher than it is in Ontario. Furthermore, this higher incidence is not explained by interactions between gender and family background. Finally, an econometric analysis of post schooling wages indicates that, when compared to those who have completed high school only, school drop outs are not penalized for dropping out. Dans cette étude, j’analyse les raisons qui expliquent pourquoi le taux d’abandon scolaire québécois est plus élevé que la moyenne nationale et, en particulier, beaucoup plus élevé qu’en Ontario (la province auquelle le Québec se compare tout naturellement). Le modèle économétrique est construit autour de groupes de trois facteurs fondamentaux ; le niveau d’éducation des parents et / ou d’autres caractéristiques familiales, le sexe ainsi que l’hétérogénéité non observée et permet de déterminer jusqu’à quel point le différentiel positif entre le Québec et l’Ontario est d’un niveau normalement attendu, étant donné d’une part les différences de richesse entre les deux provinces et d’autre part la forte corrélation entre l’éducation des parents et des enfants (mesurée dans beaucoup de pays). Les résultats indiquent qu’au Québec, tout comme en Ontario, l’incidence de l’abandon scolaire décroît avec le niveau d’éducation des parents et est moins élevé chez ceux qui ont été élevés dans une famille unie. Au Québec, et contrairement à l’Ontario, l’incidence de l’abandon scolaire est beaucoup plus élevée chez les garçons. Le plus haut taux d’abandon scolaire chez les garçons semble indépendant de la composition familiale. Une analyse des salaires et revenus des jeunes décrocheurs semblent indiquer qu’ils ne sont pas pénalisés lorsqu’on les compare avec ceux qui sont entrés sur le marché du travail après avoir complété leur secondaire. Il semble donc que le faible taux de rendement associé à la diplômation, combiné au niveau relativement élevé du salaire minimum québécois, contribuent à maintenir le taux de décrochage québécois à un niveau particulièrement élevé.

Suggested Citation

  • Belzil, Christian, 2004. "Un modèle économétrique dynamique de l’abandon scolaire au Québec et en Ontario," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 80(2), pages 363-381, Juin-Sept.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:actuec:v:80:y:2004:i:2:p:363-381
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stephen V. Cameron & James J. Heckman, 1998. "Life Cycle Schooling and Dynamic Selection Bias: Models and Evidence for Five Cohorts of American Males," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(2), pages 262-333, April.
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