Evaluating an Investment Project in an Incomplete Market
Many studies on real options base their arguments upon the assumption that security market is complete to apply the risk-neutral valuation technique. However, when the market is incomplete, in which investment risk is not spanned by existing assets, the investor.s preferences are not risk-neutral, or management is refrained from certain trading strategies, there may exist no unique martingale price of uncertain income streams. In this paper, a dynamic-programming framework for maximizing expected utility of an investor in discrete time is presented to evaluate an investment opportunity in an incomplete market. It is suggested that certainty equivalent (CE) could be applied to value such an investment opportunity. We show that two approaches to certainty equivalent, i.e., the buying price and the selling price approaches, are exactly equal in exponential utility, implying that CE is a fair value for both the buyer and the seller in an incomplete market, subject to the degree of risk aversion. Therefore, the proposed approach, compared to other alternative approaches, is relatively intuitive and easy to apply. With the classic investment problem, it is shown that the option embedded in a project is crucial in decision-making.
Volume (Year): 04 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 (June)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Strada Mihai Eminescu nr.13-15, sector 1, Bucuresti, Romania|
Web page: http://www.fin.ase.ro/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Darrell Duffie & Chi-Fu Huang, 2005.
"Implementing Arrow-Debreu Equilibria By Continuous Trading Of Few Long-Lived Securities,"
World Scientific Book Chapters,
in: Theory Of Valuation, chapter 4, pages 97-127
World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
- Duffie, J Darrell & Huang, Chi-fu, 1985. "Implementing Arrow-Debreu Equilibria by Continuous Trading of Few Long-lived Securities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1337-1356, November.
- Harrison, J. Michael & Kreps, David M., 1979. "Martingales and arbitrage in multiperiod securities markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 381-408, June.
- Kreps, David M., 1981. "Arbitrage and equilibrium in economies with infinitely many commodities," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 15-35, March.
- Henderson, Vicky, 2005. "Explicit solutions to an optimal portfolio choice problem with stochastic income," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1237-1266, July.
- T. Clifton Green & Stephen Figlewski, 1999. "Market Risk and Model Risk for a Financial Institution Writing Options," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1465-1499, 08.
- Robert C. Merton, 2005. "Theory of rational option pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Theory Of Valuation, chapter 8, pages 229-288 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
- Robert C. Merton, 1973. "Theory of Rational Option Pricing," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 4(1), pages 141-183, Spring.
- Silvers, J B, 1973. "An Alternative to the Yield Spread as a Measure of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 28(4), pages 933-955, September.
- Hagströmer, Björn & Anderson, Richard G. & Binner, Jane & Elger, Thomas & Nilsson, Birger, 2007. "Mean-Variance vs. Full-Scale Optimization: Broad Evidence for the UK," Working Papers 2008:1, Lund University, Department of Economics.
- Björn Hagströmer & Richard G. Anderson & Jane M. Binner & Thomas Elger & Birger Nilsson, 2007. "Mean-variance vs. full-scale optimization: broad evidence for the U.K," Working Papers 2007-016, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Michael J. Brennan & Eduardo S. Schwartz, 1982. "Consistent Regulatory Policy under Uncertainty," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 13(2), pages 506-521, Autumn.
- Hugonnier, Julien & Morellec, Erwan, 2007. "Corporate control and real investment in incomplete markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1781-1800, May.
- James E. Smith, 1998. "Evaluating Income Streams: A Decision Analysis Approach," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(12-Part-1), pages 1690-1708, December.
- Carolina Fugazza & Massimo Guidolin & Giovanna Nicodano, 2009. "Time and Risk Diversification in Real Estate Investments: Assessing the Ex Post Economic Value," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 37(3), pages 341-381.
- Carolina Fugazza & Massimo Guidolin & Giovanna Nicodano, 2009. "Time and Risk Diversification in Real Estate Investments: Assessing the Ex Post Economic Value," CeRP Working Papers 82, Center for Research on Pensions and Welfare Policies, Turin (Italy).
- Carolina Fugazza & Massimo Guidolin & Giovanna Nicodano, 2009. "Time and risk diversification in real estate investments: assessing the ex post economic value," Working Papers 2009-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Cox, John C. & Ross, Stephen A. & Rubinstein, Mark, 1979. "Option pricing: A simplified approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 229-263, September.
- Serra, Teresa & Goodwin, Barry K. & Featherstone, Allen M., 2011. "Risk behavior in the presence of government programs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 162(1), pages 18-24, May.
- Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "An Intertemporal General Equilibrium Model of Asset Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 363-384, March. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rfb:journl:v:04:y:2012:i:1:p:055-073. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Tatu Lucian)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.