IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rei/ecoins/v4y2002i7p40-61.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Determinantes del tipo de cambio real en Colombia. Un modelo neokeynesiano

Author

Listed:
  • Álvaro Moreno

    (Universidad Externado de Colombia)

Abstract

This article presents a model of real exchange rate using a neokeynesian approach, which is estimated with econometric methods of the English school. The empirical model is dynamic and respects the restrictions of the long run equilibrium between real exchange rate and macroeconomic fundamentals. It shows that the amount of appreciation and depreciation of the real exchange rate is determined by changes in terms of trade, openness of the economy, capital flows and acceleration of nominal devaluation. Public spending increases are not significant of the conventional levels of statistic confidence. Finally, the article evaluates if devaluation meets the requirements of weak, strong and super exogenity.

Suggested Citation

  • Álvaro Moreno, 2002. "Determinantes del tipo de cambio real en Colombia. Un modelo neokeynesiano," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 4(7), pages 40-61, July-Dece.
    • Handle: RePEc:rei:ecoins:v:4:y:2002:i:7:p:40-61
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.uexternado.edu.co/facecono/ecoinstitucional/workingpapers/amoreno7.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Engle, Robert F. & Hendry, David F., 1993. "Testing superexogeneity and invariance in regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1-2), pages 119-139, March.
    2. Stephen J. Turnovsky, 1997. "International Macroeconomic Dynamics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262201119, December.
    3. Guillermo Calvo & Carmen Reinhart & Carlos Végh, 1994. "La tasa de cambio real como meta de política: teoría y evidencia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 13(25), pages 7-50, June.
    4. Richard Baldwin & Paul Krugman, 1989. "Persistent Trade Effects of Large Exchange Rate Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 104(4), pages 635-654.
    5. Hendry, David F. & Richard, Jean-Francois, 1982. "On the formulation of empirical models in dynamic econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 3-33, October.
    6. Fischer, Andreas M, 1993. "Is Money Really Exogenous? Testing for Weak Exogeneity in Swiss Money Demand," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(2), pages 248-258, May.
    7. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    8. Santiago Herrera Aguilera, 1989. "Determinantes De La Trayectoria Del Tipo De Cambio Real En Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 8(15), pages 5-23, June.
    9. Krugman, Paul, 1987. "The narrow moving band, the Dutch disease, and the competitive consequences of Mrs. Thatcher : Notes on trade in the presence of dynamic scale economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1-2), pages 41-55, October.
    10. Fernando Montes, 1982. "Principales determinantes del comportamiento de la cuenta corriente durante la década," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 1(2), pages 187-255, September.
    11. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Stanley Fischer, 1989. "Lectures on Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262022834, December.
    12. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    13. van Wincoop, Eric, 1993. "Structural adjustment and the construction sector," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 177-201, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Luis Alejandro Lee P & Angélica María Quiroga E., 2010. "Descomposición histórica de choques del tipo de cambio real en Colombia: un enfoque DSGE," Vniversitas Económica 8294, Universidad Javeriana - Bogotá.
    2. Helmuth Árias Gómez, 2003. "Un ejercicio teórico y empírico acerca de la demanda de dinero," Apuntes del Cenes, Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia, December.
    3. Alfredo Bateman y Javier E. Martinez & Javier Esteban Martinez, 2010. "Cuaderno 4: Análisis de las fuentes de oferta y demanda en el mercado de divisas," Cuadernos de Desarrollo Económico 7586, Secretaría Distrital de Desarrollo Económico.
    4. Alonso Cifuentes, Julio César & Jaramillo Flechas, Luis Eduardo, 2019. "Descomponiendo el Efecto del Gasto Público en la Tasa de Cambio Real: Una Aproximación al Caso Colombiano || Decomposing the Effect of Public Spending on the Real Exchange Rate: An Approximation to th," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 27(1), pages 91-114, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bardsen, Gunnar & Eitrheim, Oyvind & Jansen, Eilev S. & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2005. "The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199246502, Decembrie.
    2. Julia Campos & Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry, 2005. "General-to-specific modeling: an overview and selected bibliography," International Finance Discussion Papers 838, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Zivot, Eric, 2000. "The Power Of Single Equation Tests For Cointegration When The Cointegrating Vector Is Prespecified," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(3), pages 407-439, June.
    4. Martin Schmidt, 2003. "Money and prices: evidence from the G7 countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(17), pages 1799-1809.
    5. A. F. Darrat & M. K. Hsu & M. Zhong, 2000. "Testing export exogeneity in Taiwan: further evidence," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(9), pages 563-567.
    6. Kremers, Jeroen J M & Ericsson, Neil R & Dolado, Juan J, 1992. "The Power of Cointegration Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 325-348, August.
    7. Ericsson, Neil R & Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 1998. "Exogeneity, Cointegration, and Economic Policy Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 370-387, October.
    8. David F. Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2016. "Improving the teaching of econometrics," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1170096-117, December.
    9. Campos, Julia & Ericsson, Neil R. & Hendry, David F., 1996. "Cointegration tests in the presence of structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 187-220, January.
    10. Abdur Chowdhury, 2001. "The Impact of Financial Reform on Private Savings in Bangladesh," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2001-78, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    11. Adrian C. Darnell, 1994. "A Dictionary Of Econometrics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 118.
    12. Ericsson, Neil R., 1992. "Cointegration, exogeneity, and policy analysis: An overview," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 251-280, June.
    13. White, Halbert & Pettenuzzo, Davide, 2014. "Granger causality, exogeneity, cointegration, and economic policy analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P2), pages 316-330.
    14. David F. Hendry, 2013. "Retrospective on ‘Econometric Modelling: The Consumption Function in Retrospect’, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 30 (1983), 193–220'," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 60(5), pages 523-525, November.
    15. Francis, Bill B. & Leachman, Lori L., 1998. "Superexogeneity and the dynamic linkages among international equity markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 475-492, June.
    16. Ribeiro, Marcio Bruno & Teixeira, Joanílio Rodolpho, 2001. "An econometric analysis of private-sector investment in Brazil," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), August.
    17. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2003. "Time-series Econometrics: Cointegration and Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2003-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
    18. Francisco Ledesma & Manuel Navarro & Jorge Perez & Simón Sosvilla, 1998. "Purchasing power parity and uncovered interest parity: The Spanish case," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 4(4), pages 335-348, November.
    19. Sunil Sharma & Neil R. Ericsson, 1998. "Broad money demand and financial liberalization in Greece," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 417-436.
    20. Adolfo Sachsida & Mário Jorge Cardoso de Mendonça, 2006. "Domestic Saving and Investment Revised: Can the Feldstein-Horioka Equation be Used for Policy Analysis?," Discussion Papers 1158, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    real exchange rate; tradable goods; non-tradable goods; fundamentals; devaluation; equilibrium;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rei:ecoins:v:4:y:2002:i:7:p:40-61. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Paola Rodríguez (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/feextco.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.