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Determinantes del tipo de cambio real en Colombia. Un modelo neokeynesiano


  • Álvaro Moreno

    () (Universidad Externado de Colombia)


This article presents a model of real exchange rate using a neokeynesian approach, which is estimated with econometric methods of the English school. The empirical model is dynamic and respects the restrictions of the long run equilibrium between real exchange rate and macroeconomic fundamentals. It shows that the amount of appreciation and depreciation of the real exchange rate is determined by changes in terms of trade, openness of the economy, capital flows and acceleration of nominal devaluation. Public spending increases are not significant of the conventional levels of statistic confidence. Finally, the article evaluates if devaluation meets the requirements of weak, strong and super exogenity.

Suggested Citation

  • Álvaro Moreno, 2002. "Determinantes del tipo de cambio real en Colombia. Un modelo neokeynesiano," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 4(7), pages 40-61, July-Dece.
  • Handle: RePEc:rei:ecoins:v:4:y:2002:i:7:p:40-61

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Stephen J. Turnovsky, 1997. "International Macroeconomic Dynamics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262201119, January.
    2. Guillermo Calvo & Carmen Reinhart & Carlos Végh, 1994. "La tasa de cambio real como meta de política: teoría y evidencia," Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 13(25), pages 7-50, Junio.
    3. Hendry, David F. & Richard, Jean-Francois, 1982. "On the formulation of empirical models in dynamic econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 3-33, October.
    4. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    5. Santiago Herrera Aguilera, 1989. "Determinantes De La Trayectoria Del Tipo De Cambio Real En Colombia," Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 8(15), pages 5-23, Junio.
    6. Richard Baldwin & Paul Krugman, 1989. "Persistent Trade Effects of Large Exchange Rate Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 104(4), pages 635-654.
    7. Krugman, Paul, 1987. "The narrow moving band, the Dutch disease, and the competitive consequences of Mrs. Thatcher : Notes on trade in the presence of dynamic scale economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1-2), pages 41-55, October.
    8. Engle, Robert F. & Hendry, David F., 1993. "Testing superexogeneity and invariance in regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1-2), pages 119-139, March.
    9. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    10. van Wincoop, Eric, 1993. "Structural adjustment and the construction sector," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 177-201, January.
    11. Fischer, Andreas M, 1993. "Is Money Really Exogenous? Testing for Weak Exogeneity in Swiss Money Demand," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(2), pages 248-258, May.
    12. Fernando Montes, 1982. "Principales determinantes del comportamiento de la cuenta corriente durante la década," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, vol. 1(2), pages 187-255, November.
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    More about this item


    real exchange rate; tradable goods; non-tradable goods; fundamentals; devaluation; equilibrium;

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General


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