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El perro y el frisbee

  • Andrew G. Haldane
  • Vasileios Madouros

Este escrito analiza por qué el tipo de regulación financiera compleja desarrollado en las últimas décadas puede ser una respuesta subóptima a la creciente complejidad del sistema financiero. Los ejemplos de otras disciplinas muestran que la toma de decisiones en un entorno complejo se puede beneficiar con el uso de reglas prácticas simples o “heurísticas”. Una serie de experimentos empíricos para evaluar el desempeño relativo de las reglas simples y complejas en el entorno financiero muestra que los indicadores simples, como la relación de apalancamiento y las medidas de capital basadas en el mercado superan a las medidas más complejas ponderadas por el riesgo y a los modelos de múltiples indicadores en su capacidad para predecir quiebras bancarias. Un mensaje congruente de estos experimentos es que la complejidad de los modelos o los portafolios puede generar problemas de robustez. Presenta cinco lecciones de política a partir de estos resultados, relacionadas con el diseño de la regulación financiera y las posibles medidas encaminadas a reducir en forma más directa la complejidad del sistema financiero.

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Article provided by Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía in its journal Revista de Economía Institucional.

Volume (Year): 14 (2012)
Issue (Month): 27 (July-December)
Pages: 13-56

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Handle: RePEc:rei:ecoins:v:14:y:2012:i:27:p:13-56
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  1. Merton, Robert C, 1969. "Lifetime Portfolio Selection under Uncertainty: The Continuous-Time Case," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(3), pages 247-57, August.
  2. Andrew G. Haldane, 2010. "La pregunta de los 100 mil millones," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 12(22), pages 83-110, January-J.
  3. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, 03.
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  7. von Hayek, Friedrich August, 1989. "The Pretence of Knowledge," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(6), pages 3-7, December.
  8. M.J.B. Hall, 1996. "The amendment to the capital accord to incorporate market risk," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 49(197), pages 271-277.
  9. Arturo Estrella & Sangkyun Park & Stavros Peristiani, 2000. "Capital ratios as predictors of bank failure," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 33-52.
  10. Luc Laeven & Ross Levine, 2005. "Is There a Diversification Discount in Financial Conglomerates?," NBER Working Papers 11499, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Luc Laeven & Fabian Valencia, 2010. "Resolution of Banking Crises: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly," IMF Working Papers 10/146, International Monetary Fund.
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  14. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 2010. "Fragile beliefs and the price of uncertainty," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 1(1), pages 129-162, 07.
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