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Volatilidad y crisis: Tres lecciones para países en desarrollo

  • Loayza, Norman

La crisis internacional reciente no ha invalidado el conocimiento adquirido previamente sobre los orígenes y las curas de las crisis económicas. Por el contrario, lo ha confirmado. En este artículo se describen tres lecciones de siempre, confirmadas por la última crisis internacional. Primero, las políticas e instituciones domésticas, y no la globalización, son los principales determinantes de la volatilidad excesiva y las crisis económicas. Segundo, los seguros gratuitos o subsidiados al riesgo y la práctica de “rescates” a bancos y empresas deficientes están en el origen de las peores crisis. Y tercero, la flexibilidad para ajustarse a nuevas condiciones, alentada por un marco regulatorio ligero y eficiente, es el mejor antídoto contra los descalabros macroeconómicos.

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Article provided by Banco Central de Reserva del Perú in its journal Revista Estudios Económicos.

Volume (Year): (2011)
Issue (Month): 22 ()
Pages: 9-20

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Handle: RePEc:rbp:esteco:ree-22-01
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  1. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-51, December.
  2. Raphael Bergoeing & Norman Loayza & Andrea Repetto, 2004. "Slow Recoveries," Documentos de Trabajo 188, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile.
  3. Philip Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2010. "The Cross-Country Incidence of the Global Crisis," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp333, IIIS.
  4. Paul Collier & Benedikt Goderis, 2009. "Structural Policies for Shock-Prone Developing Countries," Economics Series Working Papers CSAE WPS/2009-03, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  5. Norman V. Loayza & Romain Rancière & Luis Servén & Jaume Ventura, 2007. "Macroeconomic Volatility and Welfare in Developing Countries: an Introduction," Post-Print halshs-00754201, HAL.
  6. Chang, Roberto & Kaltani, Linda & Loayza, Norman V., 2009. "Openness can be good for growth: The role of policy complementarities," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 33-49, September.
  7. Raddatz, Claudio, 2005. "Are external shocks responsible for the instability of output in low income countries?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3680, The World Bank.
  8. Cesar Calderon & Tatiana Didier, 2009. "Severity of the Crisis and its Transmission Channels," World Bank Other Operational Studies 10946, The World Bank.
  9. Malik, Adeel & Temple, Jonathan, 2006. "The Geography of Output Volatility," CEPR Discussion Papers 5516, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Loayza, Norman V. & Raddatz, Claudio, 2006. "The structural determinants of external vulnerability," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4089, The World Bank.
  11. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mitali Das & Hamid Faruqee, 2010. "The Initial Impact of the Crisis on Emerging Market Countries," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 41(1 (Spring), pages 263-323.
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