IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rba/rbabul/sep2014-08.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Century of Stock-Bond Correlations

Author

Listed:
  • Ewan Rankin

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

  • Muhummed Shah Idil

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

Abstract

The correlation between movements in equity prices and bond yields is an important input for portfolio asset allocation decisions. Throughout much of the 20th century, the correlation between equity prices and government bond yields in the United States and other countries, including Australia, fluctuated but tended to be negative. However, stock-bond yield correlations have been largely positive since the late 1990s, rose strongly during the global financial crisis and have since remained at a high level for a prolonged period. The more recent period of positive correlation in part reflects the pronounced and persistent effect of the financial crisis on the economic outlook, though it may also owe in part to an increase in the importance of uncertainty about real economic activity in driving both government bond yields and stock prices. Changes in US monetary policy look to have exerted an opposing force on the correlation at times, driving it lower.

Suggested Citation

  • Ewan Rankin & Muhummed Shah Idil, 2014. "A Century of Stock-Bond Correlations," RBA Bulletin (Print copy discontinued), Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 67-74, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:rba:rbabul:sep2014-08
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2014/sep/pdf/bu-0914-8.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Patrick D'Arcy & Emily Poole, 2010. "Interpreting Market Responses to Economic Data," RBA Bulletin (Print copy discontinued), Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 35-42, September.
    2. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
    3. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, March.
    4. Shiller, Robert J. & Beltratti, Andrea E., 1992. "Stock prices and bond yields : Can their comovements be explained in terms of present value models?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 25-46, October.
    5. d'Addona, Stefano & Kind, Axel H., 2006. "International stock-bond correlations in a simple affine asset pricing model," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(10), pages 2747-2765, October.
    6. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    7. Dick, Christian D. & Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2013. "Macro-expectations, aggregate uncertainty, and expected term premia," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 58-80.
    8. Connolly, Robert & Stivers, Chris & Sun, Licheng, 2005. "Stock Market Uncertainty and the Stock-Bond Return Relation," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(1), pages 161-194, March.
    9. Ben S. Bernanke, 2013. "Long-Term Interest Rates : a speech at the Annual Monetary/Macroeconomics Conference: The Past and Future of Monetary Policy, sponsored by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, San Francisco, Califor," Speech 629, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:glofin:v:41:y:2019:i:c:p:60-78 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:eee:mulfin:v:47-48:y:2018:i::p:76-90 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Marcello Pericoli, 2018. "Macroeconomics determinants of the correlation between stocks and bonds," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1198, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    4. repec:bla:buecrs:v:70:y:2018:i:1:p:e29-e49 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Gupta, Rangan & Kollias, Christos & Papadamou, Stephanos & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "News implied volatility and the stock-bond nexus: Evidence from historical data for the USA and the UK markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 47, pages 76-90.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rba:rbabul:sep2014-08. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Paula Drew). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/rbagvau.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.