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Analysis of the monetary policy transmission mechanism in the Republic of Belarus: Bayesian approach (in Russian)

Author

Listed:
  • Aleksandra Bezborodova

    () (National Bank of the Republic of Belarus, Minsk, Belarus)

  • Yuri Mihalenok

    () (National Bank of the Republic of Belarus, Minsk, Belarus)

Abstract

We present an econometric analysis of three main channels (exchange rate channel, interest rate channel and credit channel) of the transmission mechanism of the monetary policy in Belarus. The analysis uses vector autoregressive models built on data from 2003 to 2014 and implemented via the Bayesian approach. The results show that all the three channels are functional. The shortest lag reaction (one quarter) of the target indicators (GDP and inflation) is caused by the money supply shock. One of the features of the estimated transmission mechanism is lack of reaction of exports to an exchange rate shock of the Belarusian ruble.

Suggested Citation

  • Aleksandra Bezborodova & Yuri Mihalenok, 2015. "Analysis of the monetary policy transmission mechanism in the Republic of Belarus: Bayesian approach (in Russian)," Quantile, Quantile, issue 13, pages 41-61, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:qnt:quantl:y:2015:i:13:p:41-61
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Norbäck, Pehr-Johan & Persson, Lars, 2001. "Investment Liberalization - Who Benefits from Cross-Border Mergers & Acquisitions?," Working Paper Series 569, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
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    4. Georgy Ganev & Krisztina Molnar & Krzysztof Rybinski & Przemyslaw Wozniak, 2002. "Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy in Centraland Eastern Europe," CASE Network Reports 0052, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    5. Karlsson, Sune, 2013. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregression," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
    6. Sayaka Shishido & Masaru Yamashita & Junichi Yoshida & Mitsuru Takeshita, 2012. "Research on derivative effects created by Japanese national R&D projects," Research Evaluation, Oxford University Press, vol. 21(5), pages 344-353, October.
    7. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    8. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2001. "The Transmission Mechanism and the Role of Asset Prices in Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 8617, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Republic of Belarus; transmission mechanism of the monetary policy; vector autoregressive model; Bayesian approach;

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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