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Thinking about instrumental variables (in Russian)

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  • Christopher A. Sims

    (Princeton University, USA)

Abstract

We take a decision-theoretic view on the question of how to use instrumental variables and method of moments. Since prior beliefs play an inevitably strong role when instruments are possibly "weak", or when the number of instruments is large relative to the number of observations, it is important in these cases to report characteristics of the likelihood beyond the usual IV or ML estimates and their asymptotic (i.e. second-order local) approximate standard errors. IV and GMM appeal because of their legitimate claim to be convenient to compute in many cases, and a (spurious) claim that they can be justified with few "assumptions". We discuss some approaches to making such a claim more legitimately.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher A. Sims, 2007. "Thinking about instrumental variables (in Russian)," Quantile, Quantile, issue 2, pages 83-94, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:qnt:quantl:y:2007:i:2:p:83-94
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jon Faust, 1999. "Conventional Confidence Intervals for Points on Spectrum Have Confidence Level Zero," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(3), pages 629-638, May.
    2. Geweke, John, 1996. "Bayesian reduced rank regression in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 121-146, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dante Amengual & Enrique Sentana, 2016. "Comments on: Reflections on the Probability Space Induced by Moment Conditions with Implications for Bayesian Inference," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 14(2), pages 248-252.
    2. Hedibert F. Lopes & Nicholas G. Polson, 2014. "Bayesian Instrumental Variables: Priors and Likelihoods," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1-4), pages 100-121, June.
    3. Kociecki, Andrzej, 2013. "Bayesian Approach and Identification," MPRA Paper 46538, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Pablo A. GuerrĂ³n-Quintana & James M. Nason, 2013. "Bayesian estimation of DSGE models," Chapters,in: Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 21, pages 486-512 Edward Elgar Publishing.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian approach; GMM; instrumental variables; weak instruments; instrument selection; entropy;

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C44 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Operations Research; Statistical Decision Theory

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