IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/prs/rvofce/ofce_0751-6614_1998_num_65_1_1500.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

À propos de la volatilité de l'euro

Author

Listed:
  • Jérôme Creel
  • Henri Sterdyniak

Abstract

[fre] Faut-il craindre que instauration de euro accroisse la volatilité des taux de change échelle mondiale ? Cet article utilise une maquette à trois pays pour comparer la volatilité du taux de change selon la nature des chocs et le régime de change en Europe (change flexible, SME ou UEM). Si, théoriquement, le taux de change d'un grand pays fermé fluctue plus que celui un petit pays ouvert, les résultats sont mitigés dans le cas spécifique de l'euro. Le surplus de volatilité n'aurait lieu que pour des chocs de demande ou des chocs d'offre externe. La volatilité serait réduite à la suite de chocs d'offre interne. Ces résultats s'inversent si la sensibilité du commerce intra-européen aux prix relatifs est particulièrement forte. Dans le cas de chocs communs en Europe, le surplus de volatilité permettrait une meilleure stabilisation économique. Pour les chocs ne frappant qu'un pays, l'euro serait plus stable que la monnaie du pays touché, mais cette stabilité nuirait la stabilisation économique. Toutefois, l'indépendance de la BCE pourrait conduire à de fortes variations de l'euro à la suite de chocs inflationnistes. Par ailleurs, la paralysie des politiques budgétaires induites par le Pacte de stabilité rendrait nécessaires des politiques monétaires plus actives, ce qui serait une source d'instabilité. [eng] Discussing Euro volatility. Jerome Creel and Henri Sterdyniak. Is the introduction of the euro likely to increase the volatility of the exchange rates on a worldwide scale ? This article presents a three countries model to compare the exchange rate volatility depending on the nature of the shocks and the exchange rate regime in Europe (flexible, EMS or EMU). In theory, the exchange rate of a large closed country fluctuates more than that the exchange rate of a small open country, but results are ambiguous in the specific case of the euro. An increase in volatility would only occur after demand and external supply shocks. Volatility would be reduced following internal supply shocks. The conclusions are the opposite if the sensitivity of intra-European trade to relative prices is particularly strong. In the case of common shocks in Europe, the surplus in volatility would help economic stabilisation. As for (hitting only one country), the euro would fluctuate less than the currency of the hit country, but this stability would harm economic stabilisation. However, the independence of the ECB could lead to strong variations of the euro after inflationary shocks. In addition, the constraints on fiscal policies which are induced by the Stability pact would make more active monetary policies necessary : these would be a source of instability.

Suggested Citation

  • Jérôme Creel & Henri Sterdyniak, 1998. "À propos de la volatilité de l'euro," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 65(1), pages 199-226.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:rvofce:ofce_0751-6614_1998_num_65_1_1500
    DOI: 10.3406/ofce.1998.1500
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ofce.1998.1500
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.3406/ofce.1998.1500
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.persee.fr/doc/ofce_0751-6614_1998_num_65_1_1500
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.3406/ofce.1998.1500?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Henri Sterdyniak & Pierre Villa, 1993. "Régimes de change et coordination des politiques économiques en Europe," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 43(1), pages 307-348.
    2. Leonardo Bartolini & Gordon M. Bodnar, 1996. "Are Exchange Rates Excessively Volatile? And What Does "Excessively Volatile" Mean, Anyway?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(1), pages 72-96, March.
    3. Cohen, Daniel, 1997. "How will the euro behave ?," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9704, CEPREMAP.
    4. Pierre Villa & Henri Sterdyniak, 1993. "Equilibres conjecturaux et coordination des politiques économiques," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03428479, HAL.
    5. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Benoît Mojon & Jean Pisani-Ferry, 1997. "The Euro and Exchange Rate Stability," Working Papers 1997-12, CEPII research center.
    6. Martin, Philippe, 1998. "The Exchange Rate Policy of the Euro: A Matter of Size?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 455-482, December.
    7. Pesaran, B & Robinson, G, 1993. "The European Exchange Rate Mechanism and the Volatility of the Sterling-Deutschemark Exchange Rate," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(421), pages 1418-1431, November.
    8. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5265 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Jean Pisani-Ferry & Agnès Bénassy-Quéré, 1998. "L'euro et la stabilité des taux de change. Une analyse théorique," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 49(3), pages 733-742.
    10. Y. K. Tse, 1998. "The conditional heteroscedasticity of the yen-dollar exchange rate," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(1), pages 49-55.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jérôme Creel & Henri Sterdyniak, 1999. "La politique monétaire sans monnaie," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 70(1), pages 111-153.
    2. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/2961 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Séverine Menguy, 2005. "Hétérogénéité structurelle des pays membres et conflit dobjectifs entre les autorités économiques dans l'UEM," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 169(3), pages 41-58.
    4. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2961 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/2961 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Miotti, Luis Egidio & Plihon, Dominique & Quenan, Carlos, 2002. "Euro and the financial relations between Latin America and Europe: medium- and long-term implications," Macroeconomía del Desarrollo 5354, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    7. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/2961 is not listed on IDEAS

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2963 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/2963 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Jérôme Creel & Henri Sterdyniak, 1998. "Discussing Euro Volatility," Working Papers hal-00972781, HAL.
    4. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/2973 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/2973 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Fayolle, J. & Micolet, P-E., 1998. "Cycles internationaux et européens: éléments pour une problématique appliquée," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 1998-01, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    7. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/2973 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/2963 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/2963 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2973 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Menguy, Severine, 2007. "The advantages of introducing an exchange rate target within the statutes of the European Central Bank," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 304-316, October.
    12. Carsten Detken & Philipp Hartmann, 2000. "The Euro and International Capital Markets," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(1), pages 53-94, April.
    13. Ricci, Luca Antonio & Isard, Peter, 2002. "European monetary union, adjustment, and exchange rate variability," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 229-251, February.
    14. McCauley, R.N., 1997. "The Euro and the Dollar," Princeton Essays in International Economics 205, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
    15. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Benoît Mojon & Armand-Denis Schor, 1998. "The International Role of the Euro," Working Papers 1998-03, CEPII research center.
    16. Demertzis, Maria & Hughes Hallett, Andrew, 1999. "EMU and the External Value of the Euro," CEPR Discussion Papers 2058, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Fabrice Capoen & Jérôme Creel, 2007. "Efficiency of stability-oriented institutions: the European case," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03461990, HAL.
    18. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Benoît Mojon, 1998. "EMU and Transatlantic Exchange Rate Stability," Working Papers 1998-02, CEPII research center.
    19. Françoise Le Quéré, 1999. "Les sources de l'internationalisation de l'euro," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 52(2), pages 31-54.
    20. Fabrice Capoen & Henri Sterdyniak & Pierre Villa, 1994. "Indépendance des banques centrales, politiques monétaire et budgétaire : une approche stratégique," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 50(1), pages 65-102.
    21. Lefebvre, Dominique, 1997. "Euro Internationalization," MPRA Paper 89353, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Marie-Noëlle Cales, 1999. "Les enjeux du rattachement des monnaies du Maghreb à l'euro," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 52(2), pages 147-161.
    23. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Benoît Mojon & Jean Pisani-Ferry, 1997. "The Euro and Exchange Rate Stability," Working Papers 1997-12, CEPII research center.
    24. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/2977 is not listed on IDEAS
    25. Jacques Le Cacheux, 1998. "La diffusion internationale de l'euro," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 65(1), pages 227-241.
    26. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/2096 is not listed on IDEAS
    27. Vaubel, Roland, 1999. "The Future of the Euro : A Public Choice Perspective," Discussion Papers 570, Institut fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre und Statistik, Abteilung fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre.
    28. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2096 is not listed on IDEAS
    29. Juan Pi??eiro Chousa, & Artur Tamazian, & Davit N. Melikyan,, 2008. "MARKET RISK DYNAMICS AND COMPETITIVENESS AFTER THE EURO: Evidence from EMU Members," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp916, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    30. Robert McCauley, 1999. "The Euro and the Dollar, 1998," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 91-133, February.
    31. Cavelaars, Paul, 2006. "Why the world should love the euro: The welfare implications of EMU for third countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 326-337, June.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:prs:rvofce:ofce_0751-6614_1998_num_65_1_1500. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Equipe PERSEE (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.persee.fr/collection/ofce .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.