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Uruguay Round et PVD : le cas de l'Afrique du Nord

  • Lionel Fontagné
  • Nicolas Péridy

[fre] Les effets du GATT 94, évalués avec RUNS, ont mis en évidence des pertes pour l'Afrique du Nord. On cherche à réévaluer ici l'impact du GATT 94 sur la per­formance à l'exportation de cette zone, en développant un modèle tenant compte de ses spécificités : modèle de gravitation généralisé intégrant la structure réelle des exportations de ces pays à partir d'un niveau de désagrégation élevé, et pre­nant en compte l'impact des barrières non tarifaires (BNT). La banalisation des préférences dont bénéficiait le Maghreb sur le marché européen affectera négati­vement ses exportations, à l'exception des exportations marocaines dans l'hypo­thèse haute. Dans tous les cas de figure, la Tunisie sera plus touchée que le Maroc, cela en raison d'une marge préférentielle initiale plus importante, et d'une structure d'exportation dans laquelle les produits traditionnellement plus préférés sont davantage représentés. L'essentiel des pertes concerne les produits manu­facturés, les produits agricoles bénéficiant généralement de l'abaissement des BNT. [eng] Uruguay round and LDCs : The case of north africa lionel fontagné, nicolas péridy The impact of GATT 94 derived in RUNS highlights a loss for North African Countries (NACs). The paper aims at re-assessing this impact on NACs' export performance, through the use of a gravity type model. It includes the actual NACs' export structure, with a high level of product disaggregation, and also takes non tariff barriers (NTBs) into account. The main conclusion is that NACs will experience a negative impact in their export performance consequently to GATT 94, except Morocco in the upper hypothesis. Most of the loss concerns manufactured products, since food products may benefit from the decrease in NTBs resulting from GATT 94.

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Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue économique.

Volume (Year): 46 (1995)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 703-715

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Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1995_num_46_3_409680
Note: DOI:10.3406/reco.1995.409680
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  1. Francois, Joseph & McDonald, Brad & Nordström, Håkan, 1994. "The Uruguay Round: A Global General Equilibrium Assessment," CEPR Discussion Papers 1067, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Frank D. Graham, 1923. "Some Aspects of Protection Further Considered," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 37(2), pages 199-227.
  3. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1990. "The Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson Model, the Linder Hypothesis and the Determinants of Bilateral Intra-industry Trade," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(403), pages 1216-29, December.
  4. Bikker, Jacob A, 1987. "An International Trade Flow Model with Substitution: An Extension of the Gravity Model," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(3), pages 315-37.
  5. Leamer, Edward E, 1987. "Paths of Development in the Three-Factor, n-Good General Equilibrium Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 961-99, October.
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