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What gravity models can tell us about the position of German FDI in Central and Eastern Europe

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  • Jungnickel, Rolf
  • Borrmann, Christine
  • Keller, Dietmar

Abstract

The tradition of gravity models is in the analysis of trade flows with market size and geographic or economic distance as core variables. Both these variables can be important determinants of FDI, too. However, when such models are used to explain FDI, there can be differences in the mode of operation of these variables so that the interpretation can become uncertain. Market size can reach beyond the host country and distance can be an incentive as well as an impediment to FDI. In the present paper, we use gravity-type models in order to assess the level of German FDI in CEE countries, distinguishing between the four nearby core countries and the other six EU accession countries. Estimates are done both on the basis of an in-sample as well as an out-of-sample approach on the basis of FDI in 81 important host countries. From the various specifications it becomes obvious that (1) beside the size of the host country, the market potential of neighboring countries is an important determinant of the regional structure of German FDI, and (2) the costs of operating at a distance seem to be weighted higher than the advantage of being close to distant markets. Geographic distance seems to be more important than various measures of economic distance. On the whole, gravity-type models seem to be appropriate to explain the regional structure of FDI. However, the results should be interpreted with caution given the extremely wide confidence intervals of the estimates which is a feature of former studies, too.

Suggested Citation

  • Jungnickel, Rolf & Borrmann, Christine & Keller, Dietmar, 2005. "What gravity models can tell us about the position of German FDI in Central and Eastern Europe," HWWA Discussion Papers 328, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:hwwadp:26386
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    2. Piazolo, Daniel & Kokta, Robert M. & Buch, Claudia M., 2001. "Does the East Get What Would Otherwise Flow to the South? FDI Diversion in Europe," Kiel Working Papers 1061, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
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    6. Simon J. Evenett & Wolfgang Keller, 2002. "On Theories Explaining the Success of the Gravity Equation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(2), pages 281-316, April.
    7. Helpman, Elhanan, 1984. "A Simple Theory of International Trade with Multinational Corporations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(3), pages 451-471, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Judyta Lubacha-Sember & Liwiusz Wojciechowski, 2014. "Uwarunkowania przeplywu polskich bezposrednich inwestycji zagranicznych do krajow Unii Europejskiej. Model grawitacyjny z wykorzystaniem danych panelowych / The determinants of FDI flows from Poland t," International Economics, University of Lodz, Faculty of Economics and Sociology, issue 7, pages 136-149, September.
    2. Drapkin, I. & Mariev, O. & Chukavina, K., 2015. "Inflow and Outflow Potentials of Foreign Direct Investment in the Russian Economy: Numerical Estimation Based on the Gravity Approach," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 28(4), pages 75-95.
    3. Mitze, Timo & Alecke, Björn & Untiedt, Gerhard, 2008. "Trade, FDI and Cross-Variable Linkages: A German (Macro-)Regional Perspective," MPRA Paper 12245, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Viktorija Igošina, 2015. "FDI to EU15 and New Member States: Comparative Analysis of Inflow Determinants," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2015(3), pages 260-273.
    5. Robert E. Lipsey, 2006. "Measuring the Impacts of FDI in Central and Eastern Europe," NBER Working Papers 12808, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Foreign Direct Investment; Gravity Model; Transformation Countries;

    JEL classification:

    • F20 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - General
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business

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